Category: Freight Rates

ARA Freight Market: Low Liquidity, Tight Barge Supply, and Mixed Rate Movements

The first full week of November in the ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market was defined by low trading activity, tight barge availability, and high volatility in product prices. Despite steady demand, ongoing terminal delays and limited vessel turnover restrained spot trading, while freight rates drifted modestly lower across middle distillates and fluctuated for light ends.

1. Freight Rates: Small Corrections Across the Board

Freight rates showed modest downward movement through the week, with isolated rebounds late in the period:

  • On 3 November, rates increased slightly across most routes in the light ends segment. Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam rose to around €3.83/ton and Flushing–Amsterdam to €4.96/ton, as operators reported tight barge supply amid strong charterer demand and long dealys.
  • 4 November saw a broad correction, with rates declining €0.05–0.10/ton for some routes, and increases of up to €0.20 for others. This coincided with fewer trades (48.5 ktons total) and some price adjustments in the light ends segment.
  • On 5 November, the trend continued with a further dip of €0.05–0.08/ton for middle distillates, as overall spot demand slowed and market sentiment turned softer. The total traded volume dropped to about 54 ktons.
  • 6 November brought minimal change, with rates mostly flat or slightly lower (–€0.03 to –€0.07), reflecting continued barge scarcity but muted trading interest. The ICE gasoil price surged nearly $30/ton to above $780, introducing uncertainty and hesitation among charterers.
  • Finally, on 7 November, rates for middle distillates slipped another €0.05–0.07, while light ends recovered slightly, ending the week with modest gains on certain ARA and Flushing routes.

Takeaway: A week of modest rate volatility ended with mixed outcomes—light ends stabilizing while distillates softened under uncertainty regarding product prices.

2. Spot Volumes: Activity Remained Subdued

  • 3 November: Activity began relatively firm with 66.7 ktons traded, though most deals involved PJK B/L or lump-sum contracts rather than new spot charters.
  • 4–6 November: Volumes ranged from 48–55 ktons, as barge unavailability constrained trading, despite strong end-user demand for prompt deliveries.
  • 7 November: Activity recovered modestly to 67.9 ktons, though traders described the day as “very calm,” with ICE gasoil volatility discouraging fresh inquiries.

Takeaway: Trading volumes hovered well below seasonal averages, hampered by logistical delays rather than weak demand.

3. Product Trends: Divergence Between Distillates and Light Ends

  • Middle distillates (diesel, gasoil, FAME) dominated trade early in the week but faced downward rate pressure by midweek as freight competition intensified and traders focused on fixed COA tonnage.
  • Light ends (gasoline and blending components) saw relative firmness, particularly on 3 and 7 November, when blending demand lifted rates by €0.05–0.10/ton on select routes midweek. By the end of the week, both product classes were roughly equal, as traders delayed movements to avoid exposure to sudden price swings.

Takeaway: Distillate freight softened, while light ends benefitted from steady blending demand and limited capacity.

4. Operational Factors: Delays, Renominations, and Scheduling Gaps

  • Terminal congestion persisted across Amsterdam, Antwerp, and Ghent, with waiting times at Evos Amsterdam East showing only marginal improvement. The nomination procedures consumed significant operator bandwidth, with many barges spending longer on single voyages, effectively reducing available capacity.
  • High volatility in product pricing and weekend maintenance at several loading points further complicated scheduling at the end of the week.

Takeaway: Persistent congestion and volatility kept the market operationally inefficient, preventing rate declines from fully reflecting weaker demand.

5. Market Outlook: Flat to Slightly Firmer Near-Term

Looking ahead:

  • Freight rates are expected to remain stable as barge supply remains tight entering mid-November.
  • The return of steady Rhine logistics could ease regional tightness if water levels remain favorable, potentially allowing additional tonnage to re-enter the ARA system.
  • However, any renewed ICE gasoil volatility could trigger another round of temporary freight softness.

Takeaway: Market sentiment leans toward consolidation—freight stability supported by logistical tightness rather than stronger trade fundamentals.

Conclusion: Tight Logistics, Soft Fundamentals

The ARA barge freight market in the first week of November was defined by tight barge availability, persistent delays, and uneven trading momentum. Freight rates for middle distillates eased slightly, while light ends showed resilience amid blending activity. Operational friction remains the key driver—limiting efficiency but keeping rates afloat. Unless delays ease or new capacity enters the system, ARA freight markets are likely to remain tight but directionless through mid-November.

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Rhine Freight Market: Stable Rates Amid Rising Volatility and Price Uncertainty

The first full week of November on the Rhine was marked by flat freight rates, low trading intensity, and increasing uncertainty driven by volatile oil prices and changing water levels. Despite a few active trading sessions early in the week, freight levels remained largely unchanged, as most freighters were already fully booked and charterers waited for clearer signals from both energy markets and hydrological forecasts.

1. Freight Rates: Minimal Movement Across All Routes

Freight rates remained broadly stable across the Rhine corridor:

  • 3 November: Rates declined slightly across all destinations—Basel dropped by €1.12, Strasbourg by €1.00, and Karlsruhe by €0.50—as new spot deals were concluded at lower levels.
  • 4 November: Most routes held steady, with 12 deals/offers registered, but small corrections continued. Basel fell further (–€3.78), while Strasbourg dropped €1.50. Water levels were high but forecasted to decline toward the weekend.
  • 5 November: Freight rates were mostly unchanged, except for Frankfurt (–€0.50) and Basel (–€0.04). The market saw moderate spot activity with seven deals concluded.
  • 6 November: All rates remained flat, with no new deals registered. High gasoil volatility ($52/ton intraday backwardation) halted most new bookings as traders covered existing positions ahead of the November contract expiry.
  • 7 November: Rates ended the week stable, with no further changes. Operators confirmed fully booked fleets, while charterers paused new fixtures amid sharply higher product prices exceeding $800/ton.

Takeaway: Freight rates across all Rhine destinations held steady after early declines, reflecting cautious sentiment and low spot activity amid volatile pricing.

2. Market Activity: Active Start, Then a Sharp Slowdown

  • Early in the week (3–4 November), activity was steady, with 8–12 deals reported daily, mostly covering the available barges in the spot market.
  • Midweek (5 November) saw reduced activity as traders hesitated amid strengthening backwardation and rising product prices.
  • By 6–7 November, no new spot deals were registered, as both freighters and charterers shifted focus to covering positions rather than pursuing incremental business.

Takeaway: Market participation dwindled through the week, with operators focusing on completing existing obligations rather than booking new tonnage.

3. Water Levels: High But Forecasted to Drop

Hydrology remained favorable for most of the week, though forecasts pointed to tightening conditions ahead:

  • Maxau began the week at 628 cm and declined steadily to 545 cm by 7 November.
  • Kaub hovered between 278 cm and 277 cm, maintaining high intakes for 110-meter barges but forecasted to dip toward 200 cm over the weekend.
  • Cologne and Ruhrort remained stable around 490–505 cm, ensuring smooth navigation throughout the corridor.

Takeaway: Water levels remained sufficient for full barge intakes, though declining trends in the Upper Rhine could limit load capacity in the following week.

4. Market Drivers: Price Volatility and Limited Flexibility

Several structural and market-specific factors shaped the week’s dynamics:

  • Oil price volatility dominated sentiment, with ICE gasoil prices swinging sharply—from ~$740/ton midweek to over $800/ton by Friday—reducing willingness to fix new business.
  • The strengthening backwardation discouraged storage movements, as inland buyers preferred to delay purchases.
  • Barge utilization remained high; most vessels were booked through the weekend, leaving limited open capacity.
  • Water level forecasts for the following week (dry period ahead) prompted some traders to plan early for possible intake restrictions on the Upper Rhine.

Takeaway: Strong backwardation and high barge occupancy created a stable yet inactive market environment.

5. Outlook: Possible Tightness Ahead

Looking into mid-November:

  • Freight rates are expected to stay flat to slightly firmer if forecasted water level drops materialize, constraining intakes.
  • Activity may pick up early next week as traders reassess flows post-contract expiry and gauge the impact of falling Rhine drafts.
  • However, any sustained increase in oil price volatility could again suppress new bookings.

Takeaway: The Rhine freight market may transition from calm stability to logistical tightness if hydrological conditions deteriorate further.

Conclusion: Calm Waters Before Potential Tightness

Between 3 and 7 November, the Rhine freight market remained remarkably steady, defined by operational stability but low trading intensity. High water levels supported full intakes, while price volatility and backwardation restrained speculative demand. With most barges already booked and charterers waiting for clearer signals, the market ended the week balanced but cautious. The next test will come from hydrology—whether predicted declines in river levels trigger renewed rate momentum into mid-November.

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ARA Freight Market: Recovery in Volumes, Stable Rates, and Persistent Delays

The final week of October brought renewed trading activity in the ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market, following a sluggish start to the month. Spot volumes rebounded to multi-week highs midweek, but terminal congestion and fleet scheduling challenges continued to constrain flexibility. Freight rates fluctuated slightly early on but ended the week stable and firm, supported by steady demand and limited vessel availability.

1. Freight Rates: Early Dip Followed by Strong Recovery

  • 27 October: Spot market liquidity was weak, with total volume below 30 ktons, the lowest of the month. Freight rates rose modestly (by €0.01–0.02/ton) on select routes as middle distillates dominated the few trades concluded.
  • 28 October: Rates fell slightly, particularly for middle distillates (–€0.04 to –€0.12/ton across key routes) as operators caught up on backlogs from prior weeks. Light ends, however, saw small gains due to tighter tonnage availability.
  • 29 October: Rates jumped sharply by up to €0.30/ton on ARA routes, and a smaller increase on Flushing and Ghent routes, marking the week’s turning point. This spike coincided with the highest daily volume (78 ktons) in two weeks, as demand outpaced barge supply and delays worsened.
  • 30 October: Freight levels held firm to slightly higher for light ends (+€0.04–€0.09/ton) while middle distillate rates stabilized. Activity was strong, with volumes surpassing 80 ktons despite continued loading congestion.
  • 31 October: Rates remained unchanged across all routes, marking a steady close to a volatile week. Overall freight levels ended roughly 3–5% higher than at mid-October’s close.

Takeaway: After early softness, strong midweek demand and logistical bottlenecks lifted freight rates to their highest levels since mid-September.

2. Spot Volumes: Sharp Rebound Midweek

  • Volumes started low at 28 ktons on 27 October, reflecting limited liquidity amid scheduling constraints.
  • On 28 October, activity improved to 43 ktons, aided by marginally better loading conditions.
  • 29 October marked the busiest day of the week at 78 ktons, as traders accelerated liftings ahead of the month-end.
  • 30 October remained strong at 82 ktons, while the 31 October session cooled to 55 ktons, as many operators finalized their positions for the weekend.

Takeaway: Weekly trading volumes surged over 150% compared to the previous week, underscoring recovering activity despite ongoing delays.

3. Product Trends: Distillates Lead Early, Light Ends Catch Up

  • Middle distillates dominated early in the week but faced rate pressure as logistical backlogs limited fresh trades. The midweek rebound was driven largely by strong distillate flows between Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Amsterdam.
  • Light ends saw a notable recovery from 29 October onward, with rates climbing steadily amid increased blending and export demand. By week’s end, light ends accounted for a larger share of total traded volume than distillates.

Takeaway: Both product segments ended the week firmer, with light ends outperforming distillates after midweek.

4. Operational Dynamics: Congestion Still Central

  • Terminal delays in Amsterdam, Antwerp, and Flushing persisted all week, forcing repeated renominations of voyages and extending barge turnaround times.
  • Barge operators reported split conditions—some fleets were heavily delayed, while others managed to book additional trips where congestion was lighter.
  • Due to these disruptions, freight rates lightly increased, as demand remained sufficient to absorb most available tonnage.

Takeaway: Operational constraints continue to hamper barge availability, while trading activity rises.

5. Market Outlook: Firm Fundamentals with Logistical Overhang

Looking ahead:

  • Freight rates are likely to stay stable to slightly firm as November begins, given residual scheduling congestion and ongoing refinery activity in the ARA.
  • Seasonal factors could sustain distillate volumes, while light ends may soften slightly if blending slows.
  • Any reduction in congestion could temporarily pressure rates lower, though overall market tone remains balanced-to-firm.

Takeaway: Freight sentiment entering November is cautiously optimistic, with rate stability supported by steady volumes and constrained logistics.

Conclusion: Resilient End to October

The ARA barge freight market closed October on a stronger footing. After a muted start, trading activity rebounded sharply midweek as operators rushed to complete month-end programs amid tight vessel supply and terminal delays. Freight rates recovered all early losses and finished stable, marking a resilient close to a month shaped by operational friction and logistical tightness.

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Geopolitical Tensions and Seasonal Tightness Drive October’s Product Market Recovery

October 2025 marked a clear shift in oil market sentiment. After months of weakness, crude and product prices rebounded as new US and EU sanctions tightened Russian oil flows, and seasonal heating demand began to build. The combination of geopolitical shocks, shifting trade routes, and refinery maintenance across Northwest Europe (NWE) reshaped market fundamentals—presenting both challenges and opportunities for tank terminal operators, especially in the ARA region.

1. Crude Market Recovery Fueled by New Sanctions

Brent crude rebounded from a five-month low in early October to trade near $66–68/bbl by mid-month, driven by new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and EU restrictions on Russian LNG imports. India and China—key importers of discounted Russian crude—were urged to reduce purchases, forcing refiners to seek alternative supplies from OPEC members and the US.

By the end of October, however, the rally eased as stronger US dollar and weak Chinese industrial data limited gains. Despite this, OPEC’s cautious production strategy and US strategic stock builds kept the forward curve in backwardation, signalling a structurally tight market.

Strategic takeaway: Europe now faces intensifying competition for non-Russian oil products, as Indian, Chinese, and Turkish refiners must prove the absence of Russian feedstock in their exports—an increasingly difficult task without fully excluding Russian crude. This dynamic may tighten supply of compliant barrels, increase premiums on traceable cargoes, and complicate Europe’s sourcing strategy for clean and middle distillates.

2. Storage Economics: Still Deeply Negative Across All Products

Break-even (BE) rates show the monthly storage fee per cubic metre at which traders would break even on a contango play. Negative values therefore mean that even if storage were free, traders would still lose money due to the backwardated market structure.

On 24 October, BE rates (€/cbm/month) stood at:

  • RBOB: –6.01 (M1–M3)
  • EBOB: –8.13 (M1–M3)
  • LS Gasoil: –9.38 (M1–M3)
  • Jet Kero: –8.77 (M1–M3)

By 31 October, all products remained below zero and, for some, became even more negative — particularly gasoil (–11.48) and jet fuel (–9.94). This underlines that the market moved deeper into backwardation, with no sign of a shift toward contango that could reopen storage arbitrage.

Strategic takeaway: The trend confirms that profitable storage remains out of reach. Terminals should continue prioritising throughput-based business and short-term flexibility, while monitoring early signs of a potential shift if distillate backwardation starts to flatten in Q1 2026.

3. Middle Distillates Lead the Recovery

Middle distillates were the clear outperformers in October. ICE Gasoil futures surged by more than 11%, crossing the $700/ton mark amid renewed supply concerns and pre-winter restocking activity. By the end of the month, gasoil settled near $718.50/ton, its highest level since summer, while jet cracks climbed roughly 6%, surpassing previous seasonal highs.

Within the ARA region, middle distillate stocks increased slightly through October, following several weeks of strong import arrivals from the US, Qatar, and India. This steady build reflects Europe’s shift toward securing additional non-Russian diesel and jet fuel supply ahead of the heating season.

Strategic takeaway: The firm upward trend in gasoil and jet prices signals a healthy throughput environment for ARA terminals. Terminals focused on efficient product handling, turnaround capacity, and jetty access can capture value as traders and refiners position for elevated winter demand — even as storage economics remain unattractive.

4. Gasoline Markets Stabilise as Dangote Restarts

Gasoline markets were more mixed. In early October, exports from ARA to West Africa and the US surged due to an ongoing FCC outage at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, pushing ARA stocks down 4–5%.
 By mid-October, signs of a gradual restart at Dangote and refinery maintenance in NWE reduced export volumes.
 By late October, US gasoline demand rebounded strongly, pulling transatlantic cargoes out of Europe and pushing USGC prices up 4% week-on-week, while ARA prices fell to ~$706/ton.

Strategic takeaway (ARA view): The resumption of Nigerian output could limit ARA gasoline exports in coming months, but US demand strength offers an offsetting outlet for transatlantic trade.

5. Global Stocks Reflect Regional Rebalancing

  • ARA: Light ends at 2.39 Mcbm (–0.08 trend), middle distillates at 3.63 Mcbm (+0.15 trend).
  • USGC: Stable total stocks near 24.5 Mcbm, with moderate draws in light ends.
  • Singapore: Middle distillates down to 4.0 Mcbm (–0.04 trend), reflecting weaker Asian demand.
  • Fujairah: Middle distillate inventories rose 0.09 Mcbm, driven by reduced exports to Europe.

Strategic takeaway: ARA’s steady stock builds in distillates contrast with declining Asian inventories, confirming Europe’s temporary pull on product flows ahead of winter.

6. Product Cracks Strengthen Despite Crude Volatility

Product cracks strengthened further in October, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, which rose by around 5–6% week-on-week. Gasoline was the only major product to ease slightly as seasonal demand tapered off.

The gains in middle distillates were driven by a combination of refinery outages in Northwest Europe and abroad, alongside persistently firm product demand across Europe and the Atlantic basin. These outages tightened regional supply, drawing down stocks and supporting margins.

As a result, refinery margins in Northwest Europe remained elevated, with Brent cracking margins averaging around $14/bbl—slightly below the previous week’s $16/bbl peak but still among the highest levels of the year. The tighter balance between supply and demand continues to underpin high utilisation of logistics and storage infrastructure.

Strategic takeaway: For ARA terminals, this environment translates into strong product movement and high turnover, as traders manage shorter delivery cycles and refineries prioritise meeting inland and export commitments. The combination of lower product stocks and resilient demand will likely keep throughput robust into the winter months.

Conclusion: A Market Turning Point for Operators

October underlined how geopolitical decisions and structural supply disruptions are reshaping product trade flows worldwide. The combination of new sanctions, refinery outages, and stronger regional demand has not only tightened product balances but also redrawn traditional shipping and supply routes.

Flows that once moved predictably from Russia and the Middle East toward Europe are being rerouted, diversified, and fragmented. India and China are adjusting import strategies under sanction pressure, while the US and Middle East suppliers are stepping in to fill the gaps — often through longer, more complex supply chains. These changes are creating new logistical patterns, shifting the balance between storage, blending, and throughput demand across key hubs.

For terminals in Europe, this means managing greater variability in cargo origins and destinations, shorter lead times, and fluctuating tank utilisation. Meanwhile, terminals in Asia and the Middle East are increasingly positioning themselves as swing suppliers, bridging regional imbalances rather than serving as traditional export platforms.

In this environment, operational flexibility and commercial responsiveness will be the defining advantages. Terminals that can quickly adjust to these evolving trade dynamics — whether in Europe, Asia, or the Americas — will be best placed to capture value as global oil logistics enter a new phase of volatility and redistribution.

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Rhine Freight Market: Stable Rates Amid Full Intakes and Reduced Activity

The final week of October brought a quiet but steady Rhine barge freight market. Rates across all destinations held largely unchanged, supported by ample water levels, high barge utilization, and few new deals. Operators focused mainly on closing October programs, while charterers completed end-of-month obligations. Despite stable logistics, lingering ARA terminal delays continued to cause re-nominations and scheduling inefficiencies.

1. Freight Rates: Flat and Unmoved Throughout the Week

  • 27 October: Activity was slow, with only three new deals registered. Rates slipped slightly (–€0.50 to –€0.65 across major Upper Rhine routes), as water levels rose and operators completed prior commitments.
  • 28 October: Spot business improved marginally (seven deals), but rates declined by another €0.50/ton for Frankfurt, Karlsruhe, and Strasbourg, reflecting the combination of high Rhine water levels and steep backwardation in the gasoil market ($17.25/ton difference month-to-month).
  • 29 October: Activity rose sharply (14 deals), yet rates eased again by €0.50/ton for most routes, as strong availability and full intakes offset demand increases. Operators cited additional Reformation Day preparations driving temporary trading spikes, but the overall price trend remained soft.
  • 30 October: Trading slowed again, with eight deals concluded. Freight levels were mostly unchanged, except for small downward adjustments in Cologne (–€0.25) and Frankfurt (–€0.25). Operators reported that most fleets were booked into early November, leaving few spot opportunities.
  • 31 October: The week ended quietly with six deals and rates flat across all destinations. Freighters described a balanced market with little pressure to offer discounts, as barge utilization remained high. Rhine conditions were fully navigable, with Kaub at 333 cm and Maxau at 598 cm, ensuring full loading capability.

Takeaway: Freight rates remained broadly stable to slightly softer through the week, as hydrological and market conditions favored operational calm.

2. Water Levels: Ample Depth Sustains Full Intakes

Throughout the week, water levels remained high enough for full barge loadings:

  • Kaub rose from 242 cm on 27 October to 333 cm by 31 October, peaking midweek at 324 cm before leveling off.
  • Maxau climbed from 578 cm to 598 cm, ensuring unrestricted navigation across the Upper Rhine.
  • Forecasts for early November suggested continued navigability, with no expected limitations to intake capacity.

Takeaway: Hydrological conditions were optimal, removing the draft constraints that had characterized earlier October.

3. Market Activity: Steady but Limited

Trading activity fluctuated between 3 and 14 deals per day, reflecting a steady but unremarkable pace:

  • Early in the week, participants finalized carry-over cargoes and adjusted schedules following ARA delays.
  • Midweek saw the most active session (14 deals), partly due to pre-holiday bookings and repositioning ahead of Reformation Day in Germany.
  • By the end of the week, activity waned as charterers paused ahead of the November trading cycle.

Takeaway: Market participation was consistent but subdued, with most deals operational rather than speculative.

4. Structural Drivers: Backwardation and Logistical Efficiency

Several structural dynamics influenced the week’s tone:

  • Steep backwardation in gasoil continued to deter stockpiling and long-term imports, limiting speculative volumes on the Rhine.
  • ARA delays persisted at Antwerp and Amsterdam terminals, forcing frequent re-nominations but without material freight rate impact.
  • Barge utilization was high, reducing urgency to secure new contracts even as daily spot activity slowed.

Takeaway: Market fundamentals remained neutral, barge occupation rate remained high, but freight rates slightly dropped.

5. Outlook: Calm Continuity Ahead

  • Freight rates are expected to stay stable in early November, as barge availability aligns with moderate demand.
  • Hydrology will remain favorable, keeping load capacities unrestricted across all Rhine destinations.
  • Any volatility will likely stem from refinery maintenance schedules or new ARA congestion rather than from river constraints.

Takeaway: The Rhine market enters November steady, balanced, and unlikely to see major short-term disruptions.

Conclusion: A Stable End to October

The Rhine freight market between 27–31 October closed the month on a calm, stable note. Water levels remained high, barge operations ran smoothly apart from delays at terminals, and rates held firm despite minimal spot demand. Operators filled their schedules efficiently, while charterers awaited new-month programs. The result was a market defined by balance—a fitting close to a month that began turbulent but ended steady.

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Middle Distillate Strength and Storage Strain: How September’s Market Dynamics Shape the ARA Outlook

September 2025 was a month of contrasts: crude prices rose on supply fears, middle distillate cracks strengthened on reduced exports, yet storage economics stayed firmly negative. While volatility eased, the forward curves maintained a backwardated structure—pressuring storage operators but driving strong throughput flows. From an ARA perspective, this combination of bullish fundamentals and constrained economics reinforces the importance of agility and product flexibility in terminal operations.

1. Crude Prices Strengthen Amid Supply Risks

Brent crude gained more than 4% during the month, closing around $69–70/bbl in late September. Prices were driven upward by Russia’s decision to extend its diesel export ban until the end of the year, ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, and tightening global inventories.
Meanwhile, the US market added further support after GDP growth for Q3 was revised upward to 3.8% annualised, raising optimism for continued fuel demand.

Strategic takeaway: The upward trend in prices reflects an increasingly fragile supply environment. For ARA terminals, it reinforces the likelihood of higher throughput and re-export activity as Europe substitutes missing Russian product with imports from the Middle East and the US.

2. Forward Curves: Steep Backwardation Persists, with Hints of LSFO Contango

The September forward curve analysis (pages 2–3) shows that middle distillates remained in steep backwardation, while light ends such as gasoline and naphtha softened. Interestingly, the LSFO (low-sulphur fuel oil) curve developed a small short-term contango of about $2/ton, the first in months.

Strategic takeaway: While the LSFO contango is too small for a viable storage play, it may signal the start of a market rebalancing, with some product segments edging closer to oversupply. For terminals, this is a subtle but important signal to prepare for potential changes in tank utilisation toward fuel oil and blending operations.

3. Storage Economics: Still Deeply Negative

All major product categories remained below the breakeven threshold throughout the month:

  • RBOB: -€6.91 (M1–M3), -€3.51 (M1–M6)
  • EBOB: -€13.30 (M1–M3), -€7.08 (M1–M6)
  • LS Gasoil: -€8.59 (M1–M3), -€7.94 (M1–M6)
  • Jet Kerosene: -€5.85 (M1–M3), -€6.11 (M1–M6)

These negative breakeven rates clearly indicate that storage remains unprofitable, with traders unwilling to commit to long-term leasing.

Strategic takeaway: Terminals should prioritise throughput-driven contracts and operational services such as blending, additive handling, and barge coordination. This focus mitigates the impact of backwardation on revenue while preserving client engagement.

4. Product Cracks: Middle Distillates Dominate, Light Ends Lag

As seen on page 9, product crack spreads showed a clear divergence:

  • Jet and diesel cracks rose by more than 9% week-on-week, supported by reduced Russian exports and strong seasonal aviation demand.
  • Gasoline and naphtha cracks fell sharply (gasoline -7.5%, naphtha -19.6%), signalling the end of summer demand and weaker petrochemical activity.

ARA gasoline stocks rose 3% to their highest level since July, driven by stronger blending activity and congestion at Amsterdam terminals as barges lined up to discharge components. Meanwhile, middle distillate imports into ARA increased modestly, though demand up the Rhine slowed due to high water levels.

Strategic takeaway: The product market divergence confirms a shift toward distillate-centric demand in Europe. Terminals with flexible tank configurations—able to switch between gasoline and gasoil—are best positioned to capture this evolving flow pattern.

5. Regional Stock Dynamics: ARA in Focus

The Global Oil Stocks data on page 11 shows a mixed picture:

  • USGC: Light ends decreased slightly (-0.50 Mcbm 3-month trend), while middle distillates grew modestly.
  • ARA: Light ends averaged 2.4 Mcbm with a neutral short-term trend, middle distillates around 3.6 Mcbm, and heavy products roughly 1.2 Mcbm.
  • Singapore: Stocks trended downward, especially for heavy products (-0.59 Mcbm over 3 months).
  • Fujairah: Stable middle distillates, but heavy stocks declined 24% m-o-m after reaching multi-year lows earlier in the quarter.

Strategic takeaway: ARA’s stable inventory base underscores its continued role as Europe’s primary redistribution hub, even as global stock patterns fragment. Maintaining operational readiness for regional arbitrage opportunities—especially toward the Med and West Africa—remains essential.

Conclusion: Managing Tightness Through Flexibility

September’s market dynamics underline a fundamental truth for the tank terminal industry: when storage economics falter, flexibility becomes the main differentiator.

  • Crude and product prices are supported by supply risk rather than demand strength.
  • Forward curves suggest backwardation will persist into Q4.
  • Light ends weaken, while middle distillates remain the revenue driver.

For ARA terminals, the challenge lies in balancing strong product movement with structurally weak storage incentives. Operators that enhance service versatility, streamline throughput handling, and maintain readiness for arbitrage-driven flows will be best placed to thrive in this tight yet dynamic market.

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Rhine Freight Market: Demand Resurgence Amid Falling Water Levels

The Rhine freight market strengthened in early October as declining water levels and a seasonal shift to winter-grade products spurred new activity. Freight rates rose steadily across most destinations, supported by increased spot deals and logistical constraints at key terminals. While overall fundamentals remain fragile, hydrological tightening and operational inefficiencies provided short-term upward pressure on prices.

1. Freight Rates: Broad-Based Increases Across the Rhine

Freight rates climbed throughout the week, with the most pronounced gains on Upper Rhine routes:

  • On 6 October, rates were largely steady, with Basel increasing modestly by €1.16 to €23.61/ton, while other destinations remained unchanged.
  • By 7 October, spot activity surged, leading to strong price rises: Basel jumped by €2.71, Strasbourg +€2.00, Karlsruhe +€1.50, and Frankfurt +€0.25.
  • 8 October extended the rally, with Basel climbing another €2.16 and Cologne +€1.00, amid heightened demand and tightening intakes.
  • On 9 October, freight rates continued to rise modestly, especially on Upper Rhine routes—Basel, Strasbourg, and Karlsruhe all added €0.50–€1.00.
  • The week closed on 10 October with a final surge: Strasbourg +€3.00, Basel +€2.50, Cologne +€1.50, and Karlsruhe +€1.00, with all destinations showing week-on-week gains of 10–20%.

Takeaway: Rates across the Rhine corridor rose sharply, led by Upper Rhine destinations as falling water levels constrained intakes and boosted logistical costs.

2. Water Levels: Rapid Decline and Tightening Intakes

Falling Rhine water levels were the dominant driver of rate increases:

  • Maxau dropped from 478 cm on 6 October to 460 cm by 10 October, with forecasts showing a further decline to 438 cm and potentially below 400 cm the following week.
  • Kaub fell from 169 cm to 170 cm early in the week and was forecast to hit 141 cm by 10 October, possibly reaching 100 cm in the week ahead.
  • Load restrictions for 110-meter barges tightened to 1,500–1,600 tons on Upper Rhine sections by midweek.

Takeaway: Falling water levels limited barge capacity and provided upward rate momentum, particularly on long-haul routes to Basel and Strasbourg.

3. Market Activity: From Slow Start to a Burst of Deals

Spot market activity mirrored the tightening hydrological conditions:

  • Early in the week (6 October), only two deals/offers were reported, reflecting limited urgency.
  • On 7 October, activity spiked to 12 new deals, marking the busiest day since August as charterers moved to secure tonnage ahead of lower drafts.
  • This momentum carried into 8 October, with 14 new fixtures, surpassing the prior day’s high.
  • Toward week’s end, 9–10 October, activity eased slightly (9–10 reported deals) but remained strong as operators and charterers finalized short-term logistics ahead of forecasted draft constraints.

Takeaway: Spot activity surged as market players rushed to fix voyages before worsening water conditions restricted loadings.

4. Structural Drivers: Seasonal Demand Meets Logistical Strain

Several factors combined to amplify midweek momentum:

  • The switch to winter-grade fuels boosted short-term distillate demand, increasing inland flows to Germany, France, and Switzerland.
  • Operational delays at EVOS Amsterdam and BP Gelsenkirchen (forcing diversions to Bottrop) added friction to loading schedules.
  • Despite improved demand, ample barge availability capped the magnitude of price hikes, as operators still had idle capacity outside Upper Rhine segments.

Takeaway: Seasonal fuel demand, combined with logistical challenges and water-level constraints, underpinned the week’s rally.

5. Outlook: Near-Term Firmness, Mid-Term Uncertainty

Looking forward:

  • The freight market is expected to remain firm in the short term, supported by falling Rhine levels and ongoing logistical bottlenecks.
  • However, structural weaknesses—persistent backwardation, high barge availability, and uneven inland demand—may limit sustained price gains once water levels recover.
  • Traders and freighters anticipate volatile pricing through mid-October, contingent on hydrological trends and refinery logistics.

Takeaway: The rally may persist temporarily, but structural headwinds will prevent lasting strength unless demand fundamentals improve.

Conclusion: A Hydrology-Driven Rally

The Rhine barge freight market between 3 and 10 October marked a clear shift from stagnation to activity. As water levels dropped and seasonal transitions took effect, rates surged—especially for Upper Rhine destinations. Yet, beneath the surface, fundamentals remain weak. Without a sustained rise in product demand, this rally looks more like a hydrological correction than a long-term recovery.

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ARA Freight Market: Volumes Surge as Delays and Rhine Constraints Drive Demand

The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge freight market ended the first full week of October on a strong note, with freight rates climbing steadily and spot volumes rebounding sharply. The combination of Rhine water level declines, terminal congestion, and month-end contract expiries fueled renewed demand for tonnage. The result was the busiest trading period in nearly two months.

1. Freight Rates: Upward Momentum Returns

Rates firmed across nearly all ARA routes during the week:

  • Early week (3–7 October): Freight rates were initially flat to softer. Cross Harbor and main trunk routes (Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam) hovered around €1.20–€2.20/ton, with limited variation. On 7 October, rates slipped by €0.02–€0.10/ton as liquidity dried up and daily volume dropped below 30 ktons.
  • Midweek (8 October): Rates stabilized, with minimal changes reported and operators describing the market as calm but balanced. Total volume was around 33 ktons.
  • 9–10 October: A dramatic turnaround followed. On 9 October, rates surged by €0.05–€0.10 across most routes—Cross Harbor rose to €1.31, Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam to €2.27, and Antwerp–Amsterdam to €3.25, supported by rising demand and Rhine-linked shortages.
  • The trend extended into 10 October, with another €0.05–€0.10 increase across all major routes. Total rates for Cross Harbor, Antwerp–Amsterdam, and Ghent–Amsterdam reached their highest levels since early August, averaging €1.34, €3.32, and €4.00/ton, respectively.

Takeaway: A strong end to the week reversed earlier weakness, confirming the first synchronized upward trend in ARA freight rates since midsummer.

2. Spot Volumes: From Multi-Week Lows to Near Record Highs

  • On 3 October, volumes totaled 36.6 ktons, the lowest of the week, as freighters reported difficulty securing clients amid weak weekend demand.
  • 6–8 October remained sluggish, with daily totals between 30–38 ktons, weighed down by slow spot inquiries and delays at ARA terminals.
  • 9 October marked a dramatic rebound, with 81.9 ktons traded, more than doubling previous days’ volumes.
  • By 10 October, the upward momentum peaked: nearly 93.4 ktons were recorded, the highest daily total since July, reflecting both operational congestion and Rhine-linked redistribution needs.

Takeaway: ARA spot activity surged late in the week, driven by Rhine constraints and delayed cargoes rolling forward into October loadings.

3. Product Trends: Broad-Based Strength but Distillates Lead

  • Middle distillates dominated trading, accounting for most of the late-week rebound. On 9 October, distillate-related fixtures rose sharply as Rhine draft restrictions forced additional short-haul ARA deliveries.
  • Light ends (gasoline and blending components) also improved but lagged slightly due to continued discharge delays at Amsterdam terminals. Despite this, Antwerp–Amsterdam and Flushing routes saw rate increases of up to €0.05/ton.
  • By 10 October, the gap between product classes had narrowed, reflecting broad-based strength across all segments.

Takeaway: Distillate freight drove the rebound, but congestion-induced flexibility needs supported light ends as well.

4. Operational Context: Congestion and Rhine Pull

  • Persistent terminal delays in Amsterdam, especially at Evos East and West, continued to disrupt planning and tie up tonnage. Several vessels waited offshore for discharge slots through midweek.
  • Falling Rhine water levels increased demand for smaller, shallow-draft barges to maintain inland supply, tightening barge availability in the ARA region. This effect intensified from 9 October onward, pulling vessels upriver.
  • Meanwhile, the ICE Gasoil October expiry (settling at $669.75/ton on 10 October) further accelerated late-week barge activity, with traders clearing outstanding positions before contract rollover.

Takeaway: Logistical friction combined with Rhine-driven fleet redistribution to tighten supply and elevate ARA freight rates.

5. Market Outlook: Short-Term Firmness, Structural Caution

Looking forward:

  • The near-term outlook remains firm, supported by ongoing Rhine restrictions and residual ARA congestion.
  • However, underlying fundamentals—ample barge supply, muted downstream demand, and seasonal refinery transitions—are likely to cap the rally.
  • Barring further hydrological deterioration, the ARA market may see rates plateau in the coming week.

Takeaway: The market’s newfound strength is likely short-lived, driven by logistics rather than lasting demand improvement.

Conclusion: Congestion-Fueled Revival

The ARA barge freight market between 3 and 10 October shifted sharply from inertia to intensity. Rates rose across all major corridors as spot demand rebounded, volumes surged, and logistical disruptions multiplied. Yet, the rally’s foundation remains fragile—anchored more in operational tightness and Rhine constraints than in underlying trade growth. Freight professionals should expect continued volatility as October unfolds.

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ARA Freight Market: A Volatile Week Ends in Declines

The final week of September and the start of October saw a turbulent but directionless ARA barge market. Spot activity fluctuated sharply, while freight rates slipped steadily, with middle distillates and light ends both losing ground by the week’s end. Operationally, persistent congestion and logistical inefficiencies remained defining features of the market.

1. Freight Rates: Steady Drop After Brief Midweek Support

Freight rates weakened over the week despite occasional volume spikes:

  • 25 September: The week opened on a stronger tone, with middle distillate rates rising by up to €0.22/ton, supported by higher deal counts and continued ARA delays. No empty barges were reported, and overall activity exceeded 90 ktons.

  • 26 September: Rates reversed direction, with middle distillates falling €0.05–€0.16/ton as the week closed quietly and volumes dropped to 41.8 ktons, the lowest all week.
  • 29 September: Light ends rose slightly amid continued delays at Evos Amsterdam, but middle distillates held steady. Daily volumes reached 40.5 ktons , showing a further reduction.
  • 30 September: Marginal downward corrections returned, with middle distillates slipping €0.01–€0.04/ton, while light ends held mostly flat. Volume rose slightly to 46 ktons, bolstered by end-of-quarter FAME demand.
  • 1 October: The new month opened quietly. Freight rates were stable-to-soft, with some minor declines across key routes, despite volumes recovering to 50 ktons.

Takeaway: Rates declined overall, erasing midweek strength. Middle distillates bore the brunt of downward adjustments.

2. Spot Volumes: Busy Start, Quiet Finish

Spot market activity fluctuated throughout the week:

  • Peak volume was recorded on 25 September, at 90.6 ktons, as operators scrambled to clear backlogs from ongoing ARA port delays.
  • The lowest point came on 29 September, with just 40.5 ktons registered as distillate demand faded and many traders stepped back ahead of quarter-end.
  • Volumes recovered slightly after the weekend, with 40–50 ktons traded daily through early October, reflecting moderate but unsustained activity levels.

Takeaway: The ARA market remains patchy, alternating between bursts of logistical activity and lulls in fresh demand.

3. Product Trends: Light Ends Resilient, Distillates Weak

  • Middle distillates experienced consistent rate erosion, with freight levels falling by €0.05–€0.20/ton across routes. Despite strong early-week flows, prices softened as demand waned later in the period.
  • Light ends saw mixed sentiment: minor upward corrections midweek followed by a stronger drop into 2 October, despite high naphtha activity and a doubling of volumes relative to distillates.
  • The narrowing rate spread between the two segments underscored a fragile, over-supplied freight environment.

Takeaway: Even where light ends were active, rates couldn’t find upward traction in an oversupplied system.

4. Operational and Structural Dynamics

  • Terminal congestion remained a dominant feature, particularly at Evos Amsterdam and Botlek terminals, where long waiting times limited scheduling flexibility.
  • Barge availability improved slightly midweek but reverted by 2 October, with several operators reporting idle tonnage despite heavy port delays.
  • The overall freight market continues to reflect structural weakness, with high barge supply and muted downstream demand keeping rate ceilings low.

Takeaway: Operational congestion may be masking deeper structural softness in the ARA barge market.

5. Outlook: Fragile and Flat

Looking into early October:

  • ARA barge freight rates are likely to remain rangebound or drift lower, with market participants noting little incentive for speculative movement.
  • While inland logistics could tighten slightly if Rhine levels continue to fall, ARA’s impact will remain limited, given weak underlying demand.
  • Light ends may continue to dominate activity, but rate support will depend on sustained refinery and blending demand.

Takeaway: Unless a new catalyst emerges—such as stronger refinery throughput or inland drawdown—the ARA barge freight market is set for another quiet stretch.

Conclusion: Activity Without Acceleration

The final days of September highlighted a market defined by movement without momentum. Despite high midweek volumes and persistent congestion, freight rates slipped across both product segments. The ARA market remains operationally busy but commercially soft—a dynamic unlikely to shift until regional demand improves or supply constraints bite more deeply.

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Rhine Freight Market: Low Demand and Falling Water Levels Keep Market in Check

Late September and early October brought a combination of weak spot demand, declining water levels, and unchanged freight rates across the Rhine corridor. While logistical challenges such as strikes and hydrological changes briefly captured attention, neither was sufficient to lift trading momentum or pricing.

1. Freight Rates: Static Despite Varied Influences

Freight rates across all Rhine destinations remained largely stable through the period:

  • 25–26 September: Rates fell slightly across most routes, with Basel losing about €1/ton, reflecting soft market sentiment amid low demand and healthy barge availability.
  • 29–30 September: Despite a worsening hydrological outlook, rates stayed flat, as traders noted no urgency to move product. Spot market activity was limited to a few small fixtures.

Takeaway: The Rhine freight market remained effectively frozen in price terms, with little evidence of upward pressure despite tightening drafts.

2. Water Levels: Decreasing, Yet Still Manageable

Hydrological conditions continued to deteriorate but remained workable:

  • Maxau dropped from 572 cm on 26 September to around 507 cm by 1 October, with forecasts suggesting further declines toward 480–490 cm by 5–6 October and possibly 450 cm by mid-month.
  • Kaub slipped below the 230 cm mark by 1 October, and forecasts pointed toward 175–180 cm shortly thereafter.
  • While these lower drafts reduced intakes on some Upper Rhine routes, they were not yet severe enough to trigger price volatility.

Takeaway: Water levels declined steadily, but efficient load management kept freight rates steady for now.

3. Market Activity: Minimal Spot Demand

Trading volumes remained weak throughout the week:

  • 25–26 September: Only two to three deals were registered per day, reflecting a lack of fresh demand.
  • 29–30 September: Activity stayed subdued, with operators focused on contractual obligations rather than spot fixtures.
  • 1 October: Just one deal was reported, underlining the market’s inertia.

Operators indicated that they were seeking opportunities in the ARA region to compensate for thin Rhine business.

Takeaway: The spot market remains directionless and dominated by short-term, low-volume logistics.

4. External Factors: Strikes, Backwardation, and Quality Shifts

  • Strikes at locks along the Grand Canal d’Alsace (Mackolsheim, Rhinau, Gerstheim, Strasbourg) caused minor delays but no major disruptions to Rhine flows.
  • Persistent backwardation in gasoil continued to suppress speculative stocking and long-haul shipments.
  • Seasonal transitions toward winter-grade products sparked some early planning discussions for October loadings but did not yet translate into tangible demand.

Takeaway: Structural and operational factors continue to suppress volatility, even as autumn supply shifts begin.

5. Outlook: Watching the River, Waiting for Demand

Looking ahead:

  • With forecasts showing Rhine levels continuing to drop through early October, logistical flexibility may start to narrow—particularly for Upper Rhine destinations like Basel and Strasbourg.
  • However, unless product demand or pricing structures change, rate movements are expected to remain flat, with only minor fluctuations around current levels.

Takeaway: The Rhine market is balanced on a knife-edge—tightening hydrology versus slack demand.

Conclusion: Stagnant Freight Amid Shifting Conditions

From 25 September to 2 October, the Rhine barge freight market remained operationally sound but commercially stagnant. Lower river levels, sporadic strikes, and ongoing backwardation failed to generate activity. Freight rates held steady at multi-week lows, with Basel showing the only minimal upward move. Heading into October, the market’s stability feels fragile—dependent on whether hydrological tightening finally outweighs fundamental weakness.

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