Category: Tank terminals

Contango on the Horizon? Navigating the Turning Tide in Oil Storage Economics

By Lars van Wageningen, Research & Consultancy Manager

May 2025 was marked by significant volatility in global oil markets, with Brent crude prices flirting with multi-year lows, forward curves flattening into contango, and trade flow disruptions affecting key hubs. While backwardation still defines the prompt structure, a deeper contango emerges beyond Q4 2025—a signal of shifting market fundamentals. For tank terminal operators, this environment demands strategic recalibration toward future storage plays, flexible infrastructure, and adaptive commercial models.

1. Price Weakness and Forward Curve Flattening

Brent crude hovered between $62.13 and $64.53/bbl throughout May, pressured by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, OPEC+ supply increases, and a fragile macroeconomic outlook. On May 2, Brent dropped below $60/bbl, the lowest in four years, before modest rebounds later in the month.

Key trend: While spot prices stayed depressed, forward spreads gradually narrowed, and by mid May, Brent calendar spreads showed contango developing from 2026 onwards

Strategic takeaway: Terminal professionals should prepare for a shift from prompt-driven demand to future-oriented storage inquiries. This is a critical time to reassess contract structures and evaluate potential tank reconfiguration to align with longer-dated storage demand.

2. Storage Economics Still Underwater—But Signs of a Turn

Despite forward-looking contango, break-even storage rates remained negative across all products in May, especially gasoline and gasoil:

  • RBOB M1-M6: ranged from -€9.33 to -€10.07

  • Gasoil M1-M6: ranged from -€3.09 to -€3.52

  • Jet kerosene M1-M6: consistently around -€3.70 to -€3.91

The charts on page 3 across all reports confirm persistently unprofitable contango storage throughout May, despite some improvement in longer-term spreads.

Strategic takeaway: Tank terminals should remain focused on throughput services while preparing operationally for a potential contango play in 2026. Scenario planning for price curve shifts is no longer optional—it is essential.

3. Product Cracks Reveal Divergent Market Dynamics

Product crack spreads throughout May were a mixed bag:

  • Gasoline and HSFO saw support from tighting of the market due to export opportunities (gasoline) and and slowdown in imports (HSFO).

  • Middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel showed bearish tendencies as imports into Europe increased, but this can get under pressure due to a closed arb and slowdown in imports for June.

  • Cracking margins hovered between $8.03 and $11.62/bbl, with hydroskimming margins remaining negative throughout

According to page 9 commentary in the May 16 and May 30 reports, light ends benefitted from ARA exports to the US and Africa, while middle distillates suffered from inventory overhangs and closed arbs from Asia.

Strategic takeaway: As margins vary across the barrel, tank terminals must enhance product flexibility—supporting blending, switching, and short-term repurposing between distillates and gasoline pools.

4. Emerging Trade Flow Shifts and Demand Signals

May trade flow insights reveal significant structural adjustments:

  • Fuel oil: Increased regional demand for ULSFO in the Med and summer power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt supported prices, yet arbs to Asia remained shut due to high transport costs and saturated markets.

  • Middle distillates: US distillate stocks rebounded but remain low, closing some export opportunities to Europe, while demand up the Rhine remained steady. Europe continued importing from Middle East and India to compensate for local refinery outages.

  • Gasoline: Export routes from ARA to North America and West Africa remained active, although at lower levels compared to previous years. Stocks in ARA dropped in early May but rebounded due to incoming cargoes and refining restarts.

Strategic takeaway: Trade imbalances are increasingly regional and seasonal, making it vital for tank terminals to adopt flexible scheduling and logistics management systems to match product flow shifts.

5. Market Sentiment Turning, but Not Yet Translated to Tank Economics

Forward curve outlooks across May consistently echoed a growing belief in storage demand growth from 2026. Spot backwardation remained intact but eroded slightly week-over-week.

  • The May 30 outlook noted the market was absorbing a 2.2mbpd surplus for now, but anticipated stock builds may trigger deeper contango later.

  • Calendar Spread Options (CSOs) for WTI crude Nov/Dec 2025 surged to $1.60–$2.00/cbm, reflecting early hedging and speculative positioning.

Strategic takeaway: Commercial teams at tank terminals must start engaging counterparties today for forward storage deals, especially with counterparties active in the CSO and futures market.

Conclusion: Ready for the Pivot

While the storage economics of May 2025 remain unfavorable, contango is creeping back—not yet at the front end, but visibly on the horizon. For tank terminals, this is the moment to:

  • Invest in future-proofing infrastructure

  • Increase contractual agility

  • Prioritize data-driven positioning strategies

The market is poised to pivot. Terminals that act on early signals—rather than waiting for headlines—will own the advantage in the next cycle.

Market Intelligence in its 5 Stages of Maturity

For owners of terminals Market Intelligence (MI) can be the key factor to unlock pathways to cost reductions, smarter investments and growth. If the management team succeeds in predominantly making well-informed choices based on easily digestible structured information the whole outlook for the company could change. With strong MI it is also possible to zoom in on currently underperforming terminals where market adjustment and optimization will lead to better performance and profitability.

In the world of Market Intelligence there is a best practice developed by the Global Intelligence Alliance or GIA (currently active under the new company name M-Brain). It’s widely known as the GIA Framework for developing World Class Market Intelligence. The company published it in 2009 in a whitepaper titled World Class Market Intelligence – From Firefighters to Futurists.

Basically, it thoroughly explains a matrix with on the vertical axis 6 Key Success Factors (KSF) and on the horizontal axis 5 Stages of Market Maturity.

The 5 Stages of Market Intelligence Maturity

GIA gave the 5 stages frivolous yet insightful names like firefighters for the poorest, informal, last minute, ad hoc intelligence gathering and futurists for the world class MI of truly visionary companies.

  1. Informal Market Intelligence – “Firefighters”
  2. Basic Market Intelligence – “Beginners”
  3. Intermediate Market Intelligence – “Coordinators”
  4. Advanced Market Intelligence – “Directors”
  5. Word Class Market Intelligence – “Futurists”

Let’s look at each stage individually:

Informal Market Intelligence:

Any tank terminal operation, and any company for that matter, handles various sources and streams of information of course. At this stage of maturity companies will probably not even use the label “market intelligence” for their information gathering and sharing activities. There is no predefined scope to these activities that will typically be done ad hoc when needed with little coordination and with little or no tools and resources.

Basic Market Intelligence:

Companies that have at least heard about Market Intelligence and its benefits may also be on a path with some “basic” first steps toward an actual MI program. Such a tank terminal operation might already engage an external service provider for some of their information needs. The activities are still mostly done ad hoc, like while preparing for a merger or an acquisition. There is however already some structure to how the intelligence is gathered, stored and shared.

Intermediate Market Intelligence:

At the intermediate stage a company is well aware of the benefits of market intelligence, has maybe seen some good case studies and is motivated to do better themselves. It is likely such a company will allocate some budget for services of external providers and a first set of software tools. At this stage the scope and the level of analysis of the MI remains rather limited, partly because the intelligence operation is only loosely integrated to business processes, if at all.

Advanced Market Intelligence:

Once a company has really internalized the need for the most insightful intelligence for its business processes, once it has assigned a network of employees who can spend a certain percentage of their time on MI and once it has established an external network of information sources and vendors such a company reaches the advanced stage of MI. A tank terminal operation in this stage will have defined concrete deliverables of the MI process that actually match the needs articulated by decision-makers. True and obvious benefits ensue, further deepening the commitment of the management to treat MI as a vital part of the organization.

World-Class Market Intelligence:

Beyond the advanced stage and benefits clearly translate into growth and profitability there is a route to move on to the “World-Class” level, where Market Intelligence will be established as an integral part of all corporate business processes and there is a deep focus on future topics and issues. The market leader in the tank terminal business has gone this route starting the implementation already back in 2007. The case study in the Handbook of Market Intelligence (describing the status in 2009) demonstrates that there is always room for improvement. But exactly that is where the greatness lies: once a true MI culture permeates an organization, remaining humble and continuing to improve becomes a second nature.

Let’s now look at the 6 Key Success Factors of Market Intelligence one by one.

The 6 Key Success Factors of Market Intelligence

Scope

In order to not drown in an ocean of information, it is important to limit the MI by clearly defining the scope of the intelligence. In principle a deep and wide scope is desirable, but in the beginning, you can juggle only so many balls. Scope then limits the specific intelligence topics that will be researched at all.

Process

So, with the defined scope, that may become ever wider and deeper, a tank terminal operation knows what information to dig for and who to deliver it to. The process aspect of the information flow looks at how information is gathered and delivered.

Deliverables

Market intelligence projects need to determine at the outset how the output of the information gathered will be delivered and shared. Think of deliverables like internal newsletters, documents, spreadsheets and presentations. They can also include workshops and seminars.

Tools

A corporate intranet is typically the first big company-wide tool that companies implement, and that allows for a basic level of MI in their organization. With that a tank terminal operation has at least moved away from the informal spaghetti of email threads. Beyond the basic level, there are more advanced generic or custom-built MI software tools that thoroughly and specifically embed the MI in the organization.

Organization

Putting someone at the helm of the MI operation is the logical starting point of allocating people and their time to the intelligence activity. Without that the MI naturally stays informal and ad hoc. With that first person appointed the MI can start to grow and internal and external networks can be built.

Culture

At the low end of MI maturity, a tank terminal operator has no “Intelligence culture”. There may be some intelligence gathering and sharing activity, but if the management or the employees don’t really cherish it, it will probably not go very far. Towards an advanced maturity level more and more employees are engaged via courses and training and see the benefits of strong MI. What may still be lacking then is the support of senior management or even the CEO. The high mark is when the CEO becomes the biggest internal promoter of MI.

The important thing to remember when trying to reach the next MI level is to assess what you need and what you want to accomplish. You have to assess your current level of Market Intelligence Maturity first and set a timeframe of progress towards the advanced stage. It is probably worthwhile to focus on some quick fixes and wins first if one or more of the 6 KSF’s are dramatically worse than others. Yet it’s also valuable to further strengthen the ones that are already at a high level. 

World class MI might be out of reach for many smaller tank terminal operations, yet it is still a good idea to know about it. At the world class maturity level, a company has a broad, deep focus on future topics and a systematic process that continuously produces insights into the company’s operating environment. That company will also have a dedicated Chief Data Officer who’s in charge of structuring all intelligence activities across the company. This manager would typically be responsible for the annual “Intelligence plan” that is updated year by year with vision and metrics on dimensions such as sales, business development, operations and finance and management.

Advanced or world class MI for tank terminal operators specifically entails:

  • A profound knowledge of the market of liquid bulk shipping and storage
  • An in-depth knowledge of the current and future competitive environment
  • Essential knowledge of regional and global trade flows and trends 

In an ideal situation MI will not remain an isolated function in the company but may rather inspire the whole company to become a learning organization open to and embracing new trends and ideas. In the end management can make better decisions at a quicker pace which increases revenue and reduces costs. Valuable new customers will be attracted and facilities will be built that are future proof.

This blog post is a shortened version of a chapter in the whitepaper “Market Intelligence for tank terminal operators” that can be downloaded via the banner below.

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

Optimizing sales and growth with Market Intelligence

What is the key factor, the bottom-line that determines the success of a terminal operator? Of course it is the percentage of tanks that are rented out over a given period of time and the fee or rate that these tanks generate. The people realizing this bottom-line day in day out are your sales and account managers. What can Market Intelligence do to help them reach their targets? And what can Market Intelligence do to secure future growth?

Market Intelligence helps establish three pillars of your success, by:

1: Continuously investigating market trends and price movements

2: Investigating what mix of customer sizes and their desires and what mix of liquid bulk products will make the terminal operation run most smoothly over time

3: Via competitive intelligence giving each sales and account manager the right information at his or her fingertips when entering price negotiations

The first pillar lays the groundwork for all strategic decision making. It will guide your commercial team to where growth and value can be found. The second means that a company will not let sales managers just blindly hunt for any customer. It will guide them towards the right deals that will strengthen the terminal’s position and competitiveness and at the same time will guard against having a portfolio of clients that does not match with logistical capabilities and constraints. For instance part of the terminal can be reserved for customers who need strategic storage, like governments. The staff responsible for Market Intelligence can make calculations and show exactly why it could be beneficial to reserve a given percentage of the terminal for such a customer who pays a somewhat lower price but signs a long term contract and does not require a lot of throughput capacity.

Price negotiations

The third pillar with which Market Intelligence helps sales and account management is literally hands-on as a staff department giving the sales or account manager all key numbers, prices, competitor intelligence and other metrics needed to negotiate good contracts. A sales manager can only make good deals when they have superior market and customer information at their fingertips. A customer will notice when their negotiating partner is well informed and be more likely to accept an offer.

Logistics

When making such optimal sales strategy plans, a big consideration is the effective use of terminal installations like jetty’s and pipelines. It makes no sense to do a lot of sales for a certain product in certain volumes only then to note that logistically it’s impossible to service these customers without long and expensive waiting times. On the other hand with proper market intelligence it becomes possible to even plan investments in new installations when for instance it is known that a new customer, or a new product, will very likely grow strongly in the years to come.    

Avoid chaos

Market Intelligence can “design” an optimal mix of good (i.e. growing) customers where you have enough diversity to respond to short term demand fluctuations, but still create a stable business with a hub function for certain preferred liquid bulk products and a number of larger dedicated customers. In this way day to day chaos at the jetties, caused by a multitude of hyper-active customers, can be avoided. And the customer benefits too from this smart planning since they hate to pay demurrage. Market Intelligence is there to make sure that everything in the terminal operation happens in the smartest way possible with the largest economies of scale!

Counter-intuitive

Sometimes good market intelligence can help a business spot counter-intuitive opportunities. For instance when globally investments in oil facilities go down, at the terminal level the effect might be contrary. Decreasing funding may lead to the phasing out of local refineries which in turn increases global shipping of refined products. So less investment in fossil fuels can in certain cases lead to increased demand for tank capacity. Without good Market Intelligence it is practically impossible to instruct sales and account management to look into such changing opportunities.

Competitive edge

To conclude we can say that, starting from current awareness, through strategy and business development, it is crucial that Market Intelligence extends deeply into the sales and account management. Only then the benefits of all the labor in the prior stages can be reaped. Only in this way a terminal operator will get the competitive edge over the competition, that will lead to sustained excellence, growth and profitability.

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

How to move from a strategy to business development using market intelligence?

Business development is what comes next in line from current awareness and strategic planning. It is basically the moment when a company says: “Let’s do it!” One would almost assume that all necessary research for this execution of the strategic plan has already been done and that now it’s just a matter pushing ahead come hell or high water. In reality Market Intelligence remains important in this phase too!

If we recap quickly we have seen that without market intelligence there can be no current awareness. Then we have seen that this current awareness can be expanded upon by applying further market intelligence to create well-founded scenarios and predictions. Only with those scenarios and predictions at hand strategic planning starts to make sense. In this blog post we will look at the next phase when the strategic plan needs to be decided upon and get executed.

Let’s look at an example. Currently, the terminal world experiences a shift towards sustainable fuel sources. Many terminal operators want to get clout in new fuels such as hydrogen (at minus 250 degrees Celsius), ammonia (transporting hydrogen chemically bound to nitrogen at temperatures and pressures comparable to LPG), and also SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). Lastly there is a growing demand for LNG due to the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical factors. Current awareness means to at least be aware of these trends and having current data at hand. Strategy means having a plan on how to capitalize on these trends under various scenarios. Business development then, is the stage where a desired position in these fuel supply chains is going to be built up.

In this new phase a good and constant intelligence flow remains critical for success. Market intelligence will now provide detailed knowledge and information about which concrete players would need what amounts of storage capacity. There can be absolutely no surprises regarding rules and regulations for these new fuels. Price movements need to be current at all times. These factors will then be taken into consideration when constructing of new tanks, jetties or pipelines. As in any construction project, these stages are feasibility study, design, licensing and permits and (preliminary) contract negotiations.

Investments in terminals are huge and therefore go hand in hand with long term contracts. Time spans of such contracts are usually between 5 and 15 years. So obviously most terminals and installations will not be built without a signed contract to cover a part of the lifespan of the asset. However, it is rarely the case that a client will be prepared to sign a deal for the whole lifespan of an asset. So there will always be a risk associated with such a project and market intelligence will enable you to estimate this risk and factor that into your decision. If the risk is acceptable you can go ahead, if too large then either you walk away from the deal or try to negotiate better terms. We can conclude that Market Intelligence continues to play a large role all the way into the  business development phase.

And as we will see in another blog post it remains important up until the final stage of the asset’s lifecycle: the operational phase. In this phase the objective is to get a good return on investment by attracting and retaining valuable customers that pay premium rates for your terminal. With excellent market intelligence for marketing, sales and account management you can achieve these results.

Gut feeling or a strategy aligned with market intelligence?

We don’t deny it: some entrepreneurs keep getting lucky just basing their decisions on gut feeling. At the same time we claim that even these entrepreneurs and their companies would fare even better if they had ongoing smart and structured intelligence gathering about all aspects of their market. Let’s take a look why market intelligence is an equally vital support activity within a company just as IT, human resource management or accounting are.

Tank terminals are capital goods. Strategic decisions in the terminal business often result in investments worth millions of dollars. And these investments determine to a large extent the capabilities of a terminal for years to come. So obviously any reduction of long-term investment risk is welcome. Market intelligence, the systematic gathering and analysis of information about all things concerning your current and future business, is the way to do this.

The important of current awareness before strategy

In a first blog on current awareness we have explained that a company simply must have sufficient understanding of what’s currently happening in your industry. What are clients looking for? What are competitors doing? Which tech trends influence the market? How is the pricing of services changing? Which mergers and acquisitions are taking place? Is there news on the regulation front in any of the relevant geographic areas? Are there important changes in the political landscape?

The current awareness can be structured using a PEST-factor (macro-level: political, economic, societal, technological) analysis, competitive environment (industry-level: customers and competitors) analysis and SWOT (segment-level: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

The next stage should offer a clear view on various realistic future scenarios for industry and market developments. Most often there is one strong trend dominating the market, but it would be foolish to always just follow the pack jumping on such a new trend. If you come in early it could prove demand is not yet as predicted. If you come in late you can’t win either.

Market intelligence allows a business to stand on its own two feet and make specific decisions independently. Better decisions. Quicker decisions. Better timing. The right partners. That’s what makes the difference!

The consequences of strategic decisions and what to do with them

A helpful way to analyse consequences of strategic decisions is to always consciously run through three scenarios:

  • worst case
  • most likely
  • best case

If your market intelligence is capable of providing this kind of “three-stage” realistic prognosis for each possible expansion or change of a terminal operation, then it is also likely that the management will be able to recalibrate the long-term corporate strategy and pick the best choices. The fact that various levels of management are involved in the information gathering, also ensures that strategic decisions are well supported by the whole organisation.           

In the end what counts is to move away from the intuitive and short-term approach towards a systematically organized long-term form of Market Intelligence (MI) preferably with concrete roles for key staff members and with a proper embedding in the company culture.

The handbook of Market Intelligence (2009) offers a good example of world-class market intelligence as it relates to strategy:

“We are future-oriented in our approach and frequently use scenario analysis in combination with forecasting as methods to understand the future dynamics of our industry. One example is that we have a project focusing on as far as the year 2050. We have an intelligence network in place and are producing deliverables that have been tied into our strategic and operational business processes.”

In the end, world-class companies have proven that ongoing smart and structured intelligence gathering about all aspects of their market will enhance profitability and reduce risk. In the highly fragmented tank terminal business, servicing an ever-changing liquid bulk market, it is not possible to survive without a clear strategy. Market Intelligence (MI) ensures that this strategy is well founded and recalibrated frequently. In this way it is a vital internal support function.

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

How good is your current awareness of market trends?

Current awareness is the starting point of good market intelligence for any company operating in a competitive market. Entrepreneurs often make intuitive decisions, but when they are supported by hard facts and good data entrepreneurial risk taking is no longer a game of roulette but the smart and successful way to take calculated risks.

Current awareness is the starting point of good market intelligence for any company operating in a competitive market. Entrepreneurs often make intuitive decisions, but when they are supported by hard facts and good data entrepreneurial risk taking is no longer a game of roulette but the smart and successful way to take calculated risks.

What do we mean by “current awareness”? Well, it simply means that as a company you have sufficient understanding of what’s happening in the terminal industry and the wider economy at this moment.

What are clients looking for? What are competitors doing? Which tech trends influence the market? How is the pricing of services changing? Which mergers and acquisitions are taking place? Is there news on the regulation front in any of the relevant geographic areas? Are there important changes in the political landscape?

Structure “current awareness” within your organization

In order to do this right “current awareness” shouldn’t remain a vague undefined asset floating around somewhere somehow in the organization, but it should be systematically structured to make sure that your organization is always up-to-date on what is happening in the terminal market and – importantly – where your company stands relative to that. Gathered information should be easily accessible to support each employee in their work and decision making.  

Setting this up could involve these measures:

  • allocating some work hours of certain employees to spend on research activities
  • structuring how employees write-up, report and store their findings
  • creating an internal market intelligence network connecting all management levels
  • subscribing to relevant periodical news sources
  • outsourcing part of the intelligence work to an external market researcher

In the end this should lead to a situation where each manager feels supported by the best possible information. A well-informed manager who enters a (price) negotiation for instance will always fare better than a manager who comes across as uninformed. A director or management team eyeing a take-over will not just make a better decision, but they will make it faster, before the competition snatches it away. Research has proven that companies with good systemic market intelligence outperform the competition on all levels.

An example of a market trend that requires current awareness

So can we give an example of a market trend in the terminal industry, that requires good current awareness to understand it fully, to anticipate well and to position your company accordingly?

The energy transition is definitely a good example. Oil and gas are no longer the prime areas of investment. Alternative fuels are being developed and are growing in market share. One product in particular is looking for terminal space across the world and that is ammonia. This liquid bulk substance has two uses:

1: Acting as an intermediary carrier of hydrogen that’s produced in sunny parts of the globe and that needs to be transported to areas with less sun but high energy demand. So hydrogen is chemically bound in ammonia and shipped around the world and in destination countries it is decomposed again to free the pure sustainable hydrogen fuel source.

2: Acting directly as an alternative sustainable fuel for ships and tankers currently burning dirty marine fuel oil as their fuel source.

Both applications have different implications for required terminal space in ports around the globe. This trend will lead to substantially less investment in oil and gas terminals and high interest in tanks that can hold ammonia.

It also warrants a reorientation of the commercial acquisition process: you may want to get acquainted with a new group of potential customers who are entering this market. And if you talk to them you will want to come across as knowledgeable. So if your company at the moment has no detailed information on ammonia requirements, then you may want to invest time to get this knowledge.

An important aspect of current awareness is also the ability to think in scenarios and structure your information gathering accordingly.

Let’s take the above example of ammonia. You would not want to forget about oil and gas completely of course. You would want to continue to gather information about all product groups and customers that use them. You might however assign the task of following these trends to different people inside your organization and maybe ask an external consultant to write up a report about an area that you are currently less aware of. In this way your knowledge base for whatever may happen in the market grows in all dimensions.

Thinking in possible scenarios as a model for your current awareness, then leads over to the next important application of market intelligence: strategy. In a subsequent blog post we will delve into that and learn how market intelligence will support laying out a strategy and wisely choosing how to devote your company’s resources to it.   

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

5 key indicators to determine the value of your tank terminal

The tank terminal market is very fragmented with more than a thousand terminal operators operating five thousand terminals worldwide (1). The global market leader Vopak owns just 5 percent of all tank terminals worldwide. Many smaller players are operating in and across niches. With increasing spot activity, vessel owners call many terminals that they are not familiar with. Each tank terminal now handles more vessels of different types and sizes than ever before (3). Buying and selling opportunities abound, but properly valuing a tank terminal has become a daunting task. So how do you determine the value of your tank terminal? In this article, we share 5 key indicators that will help you understand how much your tank terminal is worth.

Until some ten years ago tank terminal investments were exclusively the territory of industry players and private equity. Now increasingly pension and infrastructure funds are entering the market. With the yield on bonds approaching zero percent pension funds and insurance companies shift more of their capital allocations to riskier higher-yielding investment opportunities. And since typical core infrastructure investments like airports, ports, gas pipelines and toll roads are very competitive, tank terminals stand out as an interesting alternative (2) with a low-risk profile and stable revenue streams.

Countering this trend private equity firms are also becoming more creative to realize better returns on tank terminals. Some hire management teams from the storage industry to acquire and develop storage terminals for them, thereby turning a formerly distant investor into an active role of storage operators. Some have bought into existing storage companies with the same goal: turning hands-on experience and know-how into higher yields (2).

As an owner of a tank terminal one can profit from these trends because there are more buyers around plus investors looking for partnerships and acquiring strategic shares. This applies mostly to the independent operators, who have yet to position themselves in a nice market. Semi-captive players need to constantly reevaluate their proposition and be open to better partnerships. Fully captive sites are already vertically integrated in a branch of the industry so they will only be open to selling or investment when that industry is restructuring.

How to approach the valuation of your tank terminal

Before we look at the five factors determining the value of your tank terminal, let’s describe three approaches for valuation (4):

Income approach

The income or discounted cash flow approach requires inputs on prospective financial information, single- or multi-period cash flows, rates of return and long-term growth, and exit multiples and terminal values. Potential challenges with this approach include the availability of projections, unobservable industry growth/risk benchmarks, and a high level of subjectivity. Potential benefits of this method include capturing the asset-specific growth trajectory and risk/reward profile and sidestepping the lack of comparability across peer groups. Limitations include input parameters that can be difficult to estimate and the possibility of yielding negative values for early-stage projects.

Market approach

An alternative approach is looking at the general market of tank terminals and identifying similar transactions. Here we have for instance the so-called “cost of a comparable transaction” with the same reasoning as when a prospective home buyer checks out recent sales in a neighborhood. An alternative is the Guideline Public Company Method, which also looks for similarity but in this case of trading multiples of publicly traded companies that are similar to the subject company. However, pre-revenue companies lack a basis to apply meaningful multiples, and in general, there is a lack of comparability across peers due to differences in margin and cost structure, location, and the competitive landscape.

Cost approach

These methods provide the estimated replacement cost of an asset based on the current replacement cost minus the cost of depreciation, including deductions for physical deterioration and all relevant forms of obsolescence. Or they restate the individual assets and liabilities on the balance sheet to fair value. This method is easy to understand, but it fails to capture intangible assets like contracts, location, future growth and goodwill value.

The 5 key factors that influence the value of your tank terminal

From the limitations of these technical valuation techniques, follows that we need a complementary, more intuitive, birds-eye view to get at a decent valuation. So let’s bring in five key factors that singly influence the value of your tank terminal.   

1. Location

The most important factor determining the value of your tank terminal is its location on the map. In most cases the surrounding industries, position within transport and distribution networks, and regional supply and demand dynamics determine the demand for tank space. A tank terminal on a bad spot is like a hotel in a disaster zone. An example: after the collapse of the Soviet Union in a few years’ time many tank terminals sprang up in booming industry and trade zones in the Baltics. Since then, the new strong Russian government has been consolidating elsewhere, especially around St. Petersburg. The Baltic tanks became partly redundant and crashed in value of course.

2. Infrastructure

A second related factor is the infrastructure of the tank terminal. A good location at the sea side is worthless without good maritime infrastructure. Are there good rail connections? What kind of pipelines are available or could be built? Do installations have security valves? Are there adequate fire extinguishers? Is the terminal maintained well enough and what’s the state of the equipment?

3. Business model

As outlined above, ever more diverse players are entering the market of tank terminals with varying business models for generating revenue. The employed or planned business model is the third factor determining the value of the tank terminal. We can discern four types of business models:

1/ An industrial terminal has low margins but a very stable business; In this setup, a tank terminal is located next to an industrial site. It is basically an outsourcing solution for the chemical site next door. All storage and logistical services are handled by the industrial terminal and the players on the chemical site pay a fee for that;

2/ A trade hub is a highly flexible set-up, mostly on prime locations and with bigger margins. Traders use the terminal to facilitate their arbitrage strategies. As such the terminal needs to be very flexible and responsive so that the trader can capture market opportunities. However, customers come and go and tanks quite often go empty for a while;

3/ an import or export terminal focuses on specific products entering and given clearance in a geographical area. Players in those regions need the terminal to either import products for consumption or to make bulk for exporting excess products;

4/ strategic storage is related to the security of supply issues and is mainly applicable to OECD countries.

The business model is often determined by historic choices with regard to clients, business development, and infrastructure development. Especially today it is important to be able to pivot towards more lucrative business models, and as outlined above this can be enabled by smart joint ventures between operators and investors.

4. Customer portfolio

The fourth factor determining the value of a tank terminal is the customer portfolio. Tanks have a lifetime of about 30 years and have long-term lease contracts for the soil they stand on. During this lifetime a terminal will develop a certain customer portfolio and when a terminal is sold the new owner, of course, continues with much of the existing customers. Having a client portfolio that consists of solid companies that have the potential and expressed their will to grow their business at your terminal is definitely very valuable.

5. Product specialization

Finally, the fifth factor for tank terminal value determination is which products specific tanks may store and what product markets the terminal is specialized in. For gasoline, there are other requirements than for, for example, chemicals. Many kinds of safety and sustainability regulations have to be complied with. Furthermore, specialization in certain products has benefits for clients as a terminal can act as a hub for such a product, generating economies of scale and operational efficiencies.

All in all, it’s quite a complex field for business developers and investors to make their moves. Technical tools like discounted cash flow or EBITDA multiples can never have the last say. Tank terminals offer a vast global playing field where sometimes inexperienced newcomers make very bad decisions. A good team of experienced operators and well-informed investors however can make tank terminal investments profitable. With the abovementioned 5 factors in mind, it becomes easier to geographically and economically zoom in to spot the best opportunities for buyers and sellers.    

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The impact of changing supply and demand balances on tank terminals

Covid-19 also has effects on tank terminals: As soon as the true scope of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent, the oil market shifted from a backwardated market into a deep contango. Needless to say, this contango immediately led to a significant increase in demand for tank storage.

As the world is slowly emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, it is safe to say that the corona virus has had a profound impact on nearly every aspect of our daily lives. Besides the more visible effects on public health, society, and transportation, Covid-19 also sent a shockwave through the global economy.

This shockwave also had its effects on tank terminals: As soon as the true scope of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent, the oil market shifted from a backwardated market into a deep contango. Needless to say, this contango immediately led to a significant increase in demand for tank storage.

The road less traveled?

The demand for road and jet fuels has been affected most by the Covid-19 pandemic. While the short-term effects of national lockdowns on demand for fuels are relatively straightforward (fuel consumption is strongly linked with people’s mobility patterns), it will be the longer-term effects that are the most interesting to keep an eye on.

Large corporations like banks, IT companies, and insurers are already preparing for a ‘new normal,’ where their staff will work more from home after Covid-19 than they did before (source). As people will commute less to their offices, a decline in overall car traffic volume could be expected. Together with the ongoing electrification of road vehicles, we expect that the current surplus for gasoline will increase further.

When we take a look at diesel consumption, reversed dieselization of passenger cars will lead to a faster decline than we will see for gasoline. That being said, because the electrification of trucks is not expected to happen in the coming years, there will still be a large volume of diesel consumption left. 

For jet fuel, we forecast that the current deficit for North-Western Europe will grow at a slower pace. While it is expected air travel will largely recover, analysts forecast it will take at least towards 2023 until air travel is back at pre-pandemic levels (source).

Electric vehicles

Over the past few years, the market for electric mobility has seen incredible growth. In 2019, the global electric car fleet exceeded 7.2 million, up 2 million from the previous year. With more and more electric car models being introduced to the market and charging infrastructure improving, this strong growth is only expected to increase. The IEA estimates that by 2030, there will be over 250 million electric vehicles (excluding three/two-wheelers) on the world’s roads. According to the IEA, the projected growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario of electric vehicles would cut oil products by 4.2 million barrels/day. (source)

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered the preferred solution for short-distance and light vehicles (passenger cars, delivery vans) because of their high energy efficiency, their batteries have a limited energy density compared to traditional fuels. This means that for vehicles with high power demands, such as ocean liners, long-haul trucks, and airplanes, batteries are highly impractical. 

Alternative fuels

With an energy density that’s comparable to fossil fuels, e-fuels and green hydrogen are poised to play a crucial role in our transition to sustainable mobility. E-fuels are produced by electrolyzing water, creating hydrogen and oxygen. While hydrogen gas in itself is an excellent renewable energy carrier, it can be synthesized further with carbon dioxide or nitrogen into more stable and easier to handle e-fuels. When using electricity from renewable sources and circular carbon dioxide (such as direct capture from the air), net emissions are close to zero.

While this process’s overall energy efficiency is lower than that of chemical batteries used in BEVs, the much higher energy density of e-fuels makes them much better suited for applications with high power demands, like shipping, trucking, and aviation.

Circular economy

As the call for reducing plastic waste gets louder and louder, the concept of circular economy is gaining traction. While the market for recycled plastics is growing rapidly and will have its effect on the demand for chemicals, it is not foreseen yet that consumption of virgin material will decrease the coming years.

What’s next?

It is clear that both the covid-19 pandemic as well as the transition to sustainable fuel sources will greatly impact the tank storage terminals. The market outlook for the oil and chemical industry will see significant shifts in supply and demand, while the Covid-19 pandemic only adds further complexities to the market. That’s why market intelligence should be on the radar of every terminal operator. During our regular Market Update webinars, we offer our expert outlook on supply, demand, and trade flows and their impact on tank storage demand.

Do you want to make sure that you never miss out on important market updates? Sign up for the next webinar today, so that you are better prepared for what tomorrow will bring.

5 New Growth Markets for Tank Terminals

In this blog, we will take a close look at five alternative fuel candidates that promise to change the tank terminal landscape as we know it today.

As the world slowly but surely is going into an energy transition, new growth markets for tank terminals are emerging. As the demand for traditional fuels as diesel and gasoline will decline in the coming decades, new liquid bulk alternatives are currently being developed to take their places.

In this blog, we will take a close look at five alternative fuel candidates that promise to change the tank terminal landscape as we know it today.

The road towards sustainability

To meet the ambitious goals set out in the Paris Climate Agreement, signatory governments have pledged to drastically cut emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses and work towards a carbon-neutral economy.

In Europe, sectors like agriculture and industry have since made ample progress in cutting emissions. Yet the transport sector is lagging behind. Considering transport accounts for 23 percent of global CO2 emissions, significant efforts need to be made to reduce the environmental footprint of our trucks, boats, and airplanes. 

Thanks to advances in renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels, we can generate vast amounts of energy in a sustainable way. The biggest challenge ahead of us is storing that energy for when it’s needed and carrying the energy to where it’s needed.

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered the preferred solution for short-distance and light vehicles (passenger cars, delivery vans) because of their high energy efficiency, their batteries have a limited energy density compared to traditional fuels. This means that for vehicles with high power demands, such as ocean liners, long-haul trucks, and airplanes, batteries are highly impractical. 

Future Fuels

With an energy density that’s comparable to fossil fuels, e-fuels and green hydrogen are poised to play a crucial role in our transition to sustainable mobility. E-fuels are produced by electrolyzing water, creating hydrogen and oxygen. While hydrogen gas in itself is an excellent renewable energy carrier, it can be synthesized further with carbon dioxide or nitrogen into more stable and easier to handle e-fuels. When using electricity from renewable sources and circular carbon dioxide (such as direct capture from the air), net emissions are close to zero.

While this process’s overall energy efficiency is lower than that of chemical batteries used in BEVs, the much higher energy density of e-fuels makes them much better suited for applications with high power demands, like shipping, trucking, and aviation.

Methanol

Feedstocks for methanol are green hydrogen, CO2, and electricity. Traditionally, these kinds of synthesizing processes use fossil fuels for their CO2 source, but they can be made almost carbon neutral by capturing the CO2 from the atmosphere. 

As methanol is a liquid and does not need to be compressed or chilled for storage and transport, it’s very suitable as a fuel. The energy density of methanol is relatively low compared to E-diesel and E-kerosine. Still, from an economic point of view (cost per GJ fuel energy), methanol has a lot of potential as a fuel for shipping and trucking operations.

E-Diesel

Like Methanol, E-diesel is also produced from green hydrogen and CO2. A Fischer-Tropsch process is required for the synthesis, with an efficiency of up to 69%. Like methanol, e-diesel is easily stored and transported. No modification is needed for existing diesel vehicles, making e-diesel an excellent replacement for fossil diesel applications.

Ammonia

Synthesized ammonia (NH3) consists of green hydrogen and nitrogen extracted from the atmosphere. The synthesis of hydrogen and nitrogen takes place in a Haber-Bosch reactor and can achieve yields of up to 70%.

Production of ammonia is relatively straightforward and easily scalable, but it has to be stored and transported under either cooled or compressed conditions. This requires relatively large tanks, making ammonia only a feasible option for large ocean-going vessels.

E-Kerosine

With a similar process to E-diesel, E-kerosene is produced by combining hydrogen and CO2 through a Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. Compared to other e-fuels, synthesizing e-kerosine is quite expensive. Still, its high energy density and compatibility with existing jet engines make it the only viable e-fuel for aviation.

(Green) hydrogen

Green hydrogen (H2) is made by electrolyzing H2O (water) using green electricity. As electricity is the ‘main ingredient’ of green hydrogen, it’s an excellent energy carrier to store excess energy production from renewable sources like solar and wind. This way, hydrogen gas can act as a ‘battery’ to store electricity production during off-peak hours (let’s say, a windy and sunny Sunday afternoon). 

Because storage and transportation of hydrogen must be done either compressed or cryogenic, it is less suitable for long-haul transport applications like oceanic shipping. However, as green hydrogen is a key feedstock for other e-fuels, its importance to future supply chains for renewable fuels cannot be understated.

What’s next?

It is clear that the transition to sustainable fuel sources will greatly impact the tank storage terminals. That’s why market intelligence should be on the radar of every terminal operator. During our regular Market Update webinars, we offer our expert outlook on supply, demand, and trade flows and their impact on tank storage demand. 

Do you want to make sure that you never miss out on important market updates? Sign up for the next webinar today, so that you are better prepared for what tomorrow will bring.

5 Reasons you should invest in a tank terminal

Is investing in a tank terminal something you should consider? While in most cases the answer will be a sounding ‘yes,’ it will pay dividends to first learn more about the exciting world of tank terminals. Let’s take a look at the top 5 reasons why you should invest in a tank terminal.

We often see investors flocking to lower-risk investments during economic uncertainty, such as government bonds, real estate, and infrastructure. Therefore, it’s hardly surprising that we are seeing a significant uptick in interest for tank terminals investments.

Is investing in a tank terminal also something you should consider? While in most cases the answer will be a sounding ‘yes,’ it will pay dividends to first learn more about the exciting world of tank terminals. Let’s take a look at the top 5 reasons why you should invest in a tank terminal.

1. Tank terminals have typically always been a very profitable industry, with high return of investments and a low-risk profile

When we take a look at the profitability of tank storage companies over the past decades, they show in general very positive numbers. For example, Vopak, the worldwide market leader in tank terminals, has consistently demonstrated high EBITDA and EBIT percentages over the last 15 years; an excellent track record that most companies from other sectors can only dream of.

2. Tank terminals benefit from gross trade and product imbalances

As our national economies become more intertwined, gross trade keeps growing consistently. For some sectors, this increased gross trade and consequent product imbalances cause challenges. Because tank terminals are key in facilitating gross trade and correcting product imbalances, an increase in gross trade actually presents new business opportunities.

3. By using tank terminals as ‘forward stocking’ locations, products owners can save a considerable amount of supply chains costs

Tank terminals are not just about storage; smart product owners know that they can also leverage them as forward stocking locations.

Let’s say there is a South African refinery that has contracts in place with 20 European customers, selling them 10 tons of product per year each. The refinery could choose to ship 20 times 10t of product from South Africa to its individual customers in Europe. However, a smart product owner will ship the 200t of products to Europe in a single load, rent a tank in the region, and distribute the product when the customers need it. The cost advantage of the second option is huge; keep in mind that vessel costs are much higher than storage costs.

As pressure on supply chains to become more efficient is constantly rising, this forward stocking function of terminals will only become more important in the future.

4. As GDP is expected to keep on growing, it is also likely that gross trade keeps on growing

Historically speaking, there has always been a strong correlation between GDP and gross trade. If we take chemicals as an example, we have seen that historical chemical consumption growth percentages routinely exceed the GDP growth percentages. The main reason is that chemicals are heavily integrated into our daily lives and that chemicals have replaced other materials like wood, steel, paper, and glass.

5. Tank terminals are part of the supply chain of different value chains, like oil, gas, chemicals, and vegetable oils.

The location of a terminal is a very critical factor in determining the attractiveness of a terminal; if a terminal is located close to the sea is on average more attractive compared to more inland located terminals, as it saves time from marine vessels’ perspective and larger vessels can access the terminal.

What’s next?

These top 5 reasons are just the start. To become a successful investor in the tank terminal industry, there is still much more to learn. 

Download our whitepaper “What you must know before investing in tank terminals.”

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