Category: Blogs

Rhine Freight Market: Flat Rates Persist as Charterers Remain Cautious

The Rhine barge freight market in the week of 8–12 December remained stable but subdued, with freight rates largely unchanged and spot activity fluctuating at modest levels. Despite occasional pick-ups in activity toward the end of the week, charterers showed little urgency to secure prompt tonnage, while ample water levels allowed full barge intakes and prevented any tightening in logistics.

1. Freight Rates: Minimal Movement Throughout the Week

Freight rates across the Rhine corridor stayed mostly unchanged, with only isolated downward adjustments on Upper Rhine routes midweek:

  • 8–9 December: All routes held fully stable, as limited spot interest and sufficient barge availability kept prices anchored at previous levels.
  • 10 December: A small downtick was recorded for Cologne, Frankfurt, and Karlsruhe, while other destinations remained unchanged. Operators cited strong competition among barges and lack of prompt demand.
  • 11 December: Rates for Karlsruhe and Strasbourg slipped further, while Lower Rhine destinations remained stable. ICE gasoil expiry and lower product prices weighed on sentiment.
  • 12 December: All routes ended the week unchanged, confirming a flat closing session despite slightly improved activity.

Takeaway: Freight rates remained broadly flat, with only brief, modest softening on Upper Rhine routes that failed to gain momentum.

2. Water Levels: Ample Depth Supports Full Intakes

Water levels across the Rhine were consistently high enough to allow full loading capacity:

  • Maxau peaked near 590 cm early in the week before gradually easing toward 480–520 cm, still well above restriction thresholds.
  • Kaub ranged between 194 and 281 cm, with forecasts pointing to stable or rising levels, enabling full intakes for all destinations.
  • Other pegels such as Cologne and Ruhrort also remained comfortably navigable..

Takeaway: Hydrological conditions removed any upward pressure on freight rates.

3. Market Activity: Uneven but Generally Modest

Spot market activity varied day to day:

  • 8 December: Only three deals, as operators first dealt with weekend delays and charterers delayed new bookings.
  • 9–10 December: Activity improved slightly, with six deals per day, though demand remained described as “calm”.
  • 11 December: Activity slowed again to four deals, coinciding with ICE gasoil expiry and lower product prices.
  • 12 December: The week closed with six deals, as some barges were fixed for the coming week.

Takeaway: Trading remained patchy and insufficient to move the market directionally as it remained mostly stable.

4. Market Drivers: Year-End Caution and Limited Incentives

Several recurring themes shaped the week:

  • Charterers remained cautious, often stating they were sufficiently stocked for this year and in no rush to move additional product.
  • ICE gasoil expiry on 11 December had limited effect in the market.
  • High barge competition persisted, particularly for prompt dates, limiting operators’ pricing power.
  • Biofuel-related delays were reported early in the week but eased and did not materially affect freight dynamics.

Takeaway: Structural caution and oversupply outweighed any short-term activity spikes.

Conclusion

Overall, the Rhine barge freight market during 8–12 December remained firmly in a holding pattern. Freight rates stayed largely unchanged, supported neither by demand nor constrained by water levels. While spot activity showed occasional signs of life, particularly toward the end of the week, charterers continued to act cautiously, citing sufficient inventories and little incentive to commit early. With hydrological conditions favourable and barge availability ample, the market closed the week stable but soft, reinforcing expectations of a quiet run-up to the year-end period.

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ARA Freight Market: Persistent Softness as Demand Thins and Barges Accumulate

The opening week of December brought another clear step down in ARA barge freight sentiment, with both middle distillates and light ends under pressure. Demand remained modest throughout the period, and by the end of the week, several operators openly reported multiple idle barges, heightening competition and pushing freight levels lower.

The week was defined by low volumes, growing barge oversupply, and an early onset of the traditional December slowdown, as market participants increasingly opted to delay product movements into the new year.

1. Freight Rates: Steady Declines Across All Routes

  • Rates fall as market starts December calmly. Middle distillates recorded declines across nearly every corridor (–€0.02 to –€0.06). Light ends were stable due to very limited activity. Operators reported empty barges and weak appetite from charterers.
  • Demand weakened further, with some operators offering lower prices simply to secure employment. Both distillates and light ends saw broad declines across ARA and Ghent routes. Market sentiment turned notably negative as the holidays approached.
  • Rates dropped across all product groups and all PJK routes for a second consecutive session by the middle of the week. Both middle distillates and light ends fell by roughly €0.02–€0.12 depending on route and product. Operators cited abundant barge availability and soft demand as key drivers.
  • Light ends continued to fall at a steeper pace compared to middle distillates as empty barges accumulated in ARA. Middle distillates also decreased but more gradually. Despite this, total traded volume surged (82 kton), the highest of the week.
  • End-week softening as oversupply becomes obvious. Rates for middle distillates fell another €0.05 across major ARA routes. Light ends decreased again, but less dramatically than earlier in the week. Multiple operators reported barges going idle for the weekend, a sign of mounting supply pressure.

Takeaway: Freight rates weakened throughout the week, with middle distillates drifting steadily downward and light ends experiencing sharp mid-week declines, only stabilizing slightly on Friday.

2. Spot Volumes: Quiet Start, Midweek Uptick, Silent Finish

  • 1 December: 39.5 ktons. Quiet start to the week with limited chartering interest.
  • 2 December: 34.0 ktons. Lower activity, with multiple barges open for prompt loading.
  • 3 December: 50.4 ktons. Slight uptick, but traders remained in no hurry to move product.
  • 4 December: 82.2 ktons. Strongest day of the week, though the tone still felt “calm” to operators.
  • 5 December: 31.2 ktons. Very quiet finish, with some freighters unable to secure weekend work.

Takeaway: Despite a midweek spike, overall liquidity was thin, with the week concluding near monthly lows.

3. Product Trends: Light Ends Under Pressure, Distillates Gradually Easing

Light Ends

  • Experienced consistent downward pressure all week.
  • Weak blending interest, limited export pull, and plentiful empty barges kept this segment the softest in the ARA system.
  • Declines were steepest on 3–4 December.

Middle Distillates

  • Rates dropped more gradually but still trended decisively lower each day.
  • Demand remained modest, and operators often lowered bids to avoid idle time.
  • By 5 December, MD freight had returned to levels last seen in early autumn.

Takeaway: Both product groups softened, but light ends weakened materially faster due to swelling barge supply.

4. Operational Factors: Abundant Barges, Fewer Cargoes

Across the week, several operational themes emerged:

  • Oversupply of barges grew more apparent each day of the week.
  • Traders holding back ahead of the holidays reduced prompt chartering.
  • Operators increasingly accepted lower bids to avoid idle time.
  • Terminal delays were not a major factor this week, logistics were fluid resulting in quick loading and discharging.

Takeaway: Market weakness was driven not by congestion but by insufficient cargoes and too many open barges.

5. Outlook: A Soft December Expected

  • Near-term conditions point toward continued softness, with ample tonnage, thinning year-end demand, and little operational disruption.
  • Freight rates likely to remain soft-to-weaker in the first half of December.
  • Any rebounds would require either a demand pulse (e.g., distillate restocking) or weather-related interruptions—neither of which appeared in the period reviewed.

Conclusion

The ARA barge freight market in the week of 1–5 December continued its gradual slide into a softer winter pattern. Both middle distillates and light ends faced declining freight rates amid low demand, growing barge availability, and a general lack of urgency among charterers. While a midweek rise in traded volumes briefly lifted activity, it did nothing to tighten the underlying supply–demand balance, and by Friday several barges were expected to remain idle over the weekend. The result is a market characterized by persistent freight erosion and structural oversupply, setting a subdued tone as the industry moves deeper into December.

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Rhine Freight Market: Stable Rates, Weak Activity, and End-Year Hesitation

The Rhine barge market entered December with flat freight rates, low spot activity, and a general lack of urgency on both the charterer and operator sides. Despite fluctuating water levels, intakes remained high enough across the river system to avoid any logistical pressure. Trading sentiment remained shaped by year-end trading decisions, backwardation in the ICE gasoil contract, and abundant barge availability.

1. Freight Rates: A Fully Flat Week With One Micro-Adjustment

1 December had slight mixed adjustments

  • Basel rose marginally (+€0.53), while Karlsruhe slipped slightly (–€0.25).
  • All other routes remained unchanged.
  • A total of nine deals were concluded as the week opened with stronger activity than the week before.

2 December’s minor, offsetting rate changes

  • Cologne fell (–€0.25), Karlsruhe rose (+€0.25).
  • Other routes held steady.
  • Twelve deals were reported, but operators noted fewer requests overall and suggested shifting tonnage toward ARA if weak demand persisted.

3 December has fully unchanged rates

  • All routes held flat.
  • Six deals, but operators highlighted that some barges were fully booked while others remained available—an uneven supply pattern typical for early December.

4 December remains the same

  • Only two deals, as both charterers and operators had already secured their week’s needs.
  • Water levels were falling at Kaub but rising at Maxau; intakes remained unaffected.

5 December had fully unchanged except Basel (–€0.05)

  • No deals reported, marking an extremely quiet end to the week.
  • Operators reported being covered through mid-next week; charterers relied on COA voyages for remaining requirements.

Takeaway: Aside from tiny, isolated adjustments, Rhine freight rates remained flat for the entire week, reflecting minimal spot activity and balanced but unmotivated market conditions.

2. Water Levels: High, Navigable, and Not Influencing Rates

Across the week, water levels at Kaub and Maxau provided ample depth for full 110m barge intakes:

  • 1 December: Maxau forecast to fall from 526 cm to ~490 cm, Kaub from 236 cm to ~218 cm—still sufficient for 2,000–2,300-ton intakes.
  • 5 December: Maxau 495 → 575 cm, Kaub 210 → 192 cm; still no meaningful intake restrictions.

Takeaway: Hydrology played no supportive role where water remained high, stable, and non-restrictive.

3. Market Activity: Moderate Start, Then a Slide Into Silence

Spot activity eased steadily throughout the week:

  • 1 December: 9 deals, the most active day of the period.
  • 2 December: 12 deals with strong pacing, though operators noted lower enquiry levels than in previous weeks.
  • 3 December: 6 deals as spot interest begins to cool.
  • 4 December: 2 deals as the market slows sharply and both sides declare schedules covered.
  • 5 December: 0 deals, marking a completely inactive session.

Takeaway: The Rhine market moved from mildly active to nearly frozen, typical for early December when traders avoid prompt imports.

4. Market Drivers: Year-End Caution and Backwardation Dominate

  • Gasoil backwardation remains a brake. Backwardation widened slightly on 5 December, discouraging charterers from buying ahead.
  • Uneven but sufficient barge availability. Some barges were fully booked on 3 December, while others were idle around 1–2 December, but overall supply exceeded demand.
  • Low urgency from charterers. Charterers repeatedly stated they had already fixed sufficient barges by 4 December, limiting spot business.
  • End-year budget behavior. Traders avoided new December imports, preferring to shift cargoes into January for inventory reasons.

Takeaway: Market fundamentals offered no catalyst for freight uplift.

Conclusion

The Rhine barge freight market during 1–5 December was characterized by exceptionally low activity, uniformly flat freight rates, and no meaningful shifts in supply–demand balance. High water levels ensured full loading conditions throughout the corridor, but this operational advantage was offset by weak charterer interest and persistent backwardation in gasoil, which discouraged early-month purchasing. After a mildly active start to the week, spot trading collapsed entirely by Friday, leaving most operators covered through mid-next week and several barges sitting idle. With no clear driver for renewed demand, the Rhine market ended the week stalled in a soft, directionless equilibrium.

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November 2025: Stabilising Markets, Softer Margins, and First Signs of Forward Curve Shifts

November marked a period of stabilisation in crude and some product markets after several months of heightened volatility. While geopolitical uncertainties remained present, the month was characterised by a modest recovery in crude prices, and subtle but important shifts in forward structures. However, local middle distillate product markets were much more volatile pushed by uncertainty over product availability and both prices and margins were on a rollercoaster, easing at the end of the month. For the ARA hub and global tank terminal operators, November provided a bit clearer signal of where markets may be heading into early 2026, with oversupply risks gradually becoming more visible.

1. Crude Prices Recover Slightly but Remain Under Pressure

Brent crude traded around $63–65/bbl through the month, ending at $63.34. This represented a mild recovery from earlier lows but still placed November on track for a small monthly loss.

Market sentiment was driven by:

  • Hopes surrounding renewed peace negotiations in Ukraine
  • Expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in December
  • OPEC+ signaling it will pause production increases into Q1 2026 due to concerns about oversupply

Despite these developments, the Brent forward curve remained in backwardation, though spreads narrowed slightly compared to October, a sign that the balance between supply and demand is slowly shifting.

Strategic takeaway: Crude market behavior indicates a more balanced, but still fragile, fundamental landscape. Terminals should prepare for potential changes in cargo origins and destination patterns if oversupply grows in 2026.

2. Forward Curves Show Some Softening, Fuel Oil Moves Closer to Contango

Forward curve data shows notable changes versus previous months:

  • Middle distillate forward curves saw steep declines at the front end as supply concerns eased after negotiations on peace in Ukraine, but not before rising on tighter supplies.
  • RBOB gasoline displayed seasonal contango, typical for winter periods.
  • LSFO swaps moved into a small contango, though still shallow.

These curve shapes confirm that storage arbitrage opportunities remain out of reach, especially for diesel and jet fuel.

Strategic takeaway: Although forward markets remain backwinded, the small contango emerging in fuel oil could be an early signal of structural shifts in 2026. Terminals should monitor this closely for early re-emerging storage demand.

3. Storage Economics: Still Negative, Though Marginally Less Severe

All break-even (BE) storage rates in November remained negative, confirming that storage is still uneconomical. Key BE rates included:

  • Gasoil M1–M3: –€7.36/cbm
  • Kerosene M1–M3: –€7.69/cbm
  • EBOB gasoline M1–M3: –€6.00/cbm
  • LSFO M1–M3: –€1.28/cbm (least negative)

Negative BE values mean that future prices do not cover the cost of storing product, even at theoretical zero storage cost.

Importantly, the trend shows a slight easing in negative values, especially for fuel oil and longer-dated gasoline structures suggesting that the most severe backwardation may have passed.

Strategic takeaway: September and October represented the deepest backwardation of the year. November’s data signals a slow return toward more normalised market conditions, though still far from profitable contango.

4. Product Cracks: Broad Weakness Across the Barrel

Product crack spreads in the ARA region moved sharply lower through after a peak in November:

  • Gasoil cracks: –19.5% week-on-week
  • Diesel cracks: –24.3%
  • Jet-kero cracks: –14.3%
  • Gasoline cracks: down modestly on higher product availability
  • Naphtha: the exception, rising 27% due to petrochemical restocking

Refinery margins weakened but remained workable:

  • Brent cracking margins NWE: ~$13/bbl
  • Hydroskimming margins slipped back into negative territory

These moves reflect a market shifting away from the extreme tightness seen in early autumn, as supply from the US, Middle East and Europe normalised after maintenance cycles.

Strategic takeaway: Lower cracks and stable inventories suggest calmer market conditions for terminals, with more predictable throughput and fewer abrupt flow shifts.

5. Global Oil Stocks: Mild Builds in Several Hubs

Page 11 data shows that global stock trends remained broadly stable, with slight builds in some regions:

  • USGC: Light ends and middle distillates remain within historical ranges; middle distillates trend positive
  • ARA:
    • Light ends: stable around 1.8–1.9 Mcbm, slight downward trend
    • Middle distillates: averaging 3.6 Mcbm, mild negative trend
    • Heavy products: slight build
  • Singapore: Middle distillates declined modestly, heavy stocks grew
  • Fujairah: Stocks increased across the board, driven by resumed refinery output and moderate bunker demand

Strategic takeaway: The soft but steady stock builds, especially in Fujairah and the USGC, show that supply availability is no longer the primary concern. This reinforces why product cracks fell sharply in November.

Conclusion

November marked a clear transition in global oil markets as the extreme tightness seen in early autumn eased and fundamentals began to stabilise. Softer middle distillate cracks, a flattening of forward curves, and slightly improving break-even storage rates all point toward a market gradually moving away from stress and closer to balance. While storage economics remain firmly negative, the trend is less severe than in prior months, and subtle shifts such as the emerging contango in fuel oil suggest that the foundations for potential storage opportunities in 2026 are slowly forming. For tank terminals, the operational focus therefore remains on managing steady throughput rather than contango-driven storage, but November’s developments indicate that the market cycle may be approaching a turning point. Terminals that maintain flexibility and close customer alignment will be best positioned as oversupply risks build and trading strategies evolve in the new year.

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ARA Freight Market: Volatile Week Ends Quietly as Rates Drift Lower

The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market saw a mixed and often contradictory week between 24 and 28 November. While midweek trading surged to one of the highest daily volumes since August, freight rate sentiment nevertheless softened, especially for light ends. Middle distillates briefly gained support midweek but ultimately trended sideways to lower by Friday.

Operational conditions were dominated by persistent terminal delays, intermittent strike disruptions in Belgium, and uneven demand between distillates and light ends, all contributing to a market that was active in pockets yet directionally weak overall.

1. Freight Rates: Firm Start, Softer Middle, Flat Finish

  • Freight rates rose modestly, especially for middle distillates, with ARA Cross Harbor up roughly €0.28, and strong deals on routes such as Flushing–Antwerp and Antwerp–Amsterdam. Light ends remained flat due to very few concluded deals.
  • Rates fell sharply across middle distillates (–€0.08 to –€0.23) and light ends (–€0.03 to –€0.08). Operators noted only minimal impact from the Antwerp strike on inland vessels, and demand was described as “not particularly strong,” especially for light ends.
  • Distillate rates rebounded on most ARA and Ghent routes (+€0.07 to +€0.09), while light-end rates remained unchanged. Some operators reported waiting times depending on sea-going vessel queues, especially prior to Albert Canal reopening.
  • Despite one of the busiest days since August, both distillate and light-end freight rates posted a clear downtick, reflecting sufficient barge availability throughout the region. Operators highlighted plentiful vessels and limited rate support despite heavy trading.
  • A very quiet session with minimal deals, keeping freight rates unchanged across all routes. Only Botlek and Antwerp showed ongoing operational delays; otherwise, no new congestion issues surfaced.

Takeaway: A week marked by up and down flat price patterns ultimately ended with rates lower than where they started, driven by light-end weakness and broad liquidity on the supply side.

2. Spot Volumes: Highly Uneven, With a Big Midweek Spike

  • 24 November: Weakest session of the month with 34.3 ktons, impacted by FAME loading delays in Antwerp and staff strikes slowing operations.
  • 25 November: Activity recovered to 63.1 ktons, supported by interest for early next-week flows.
  • 26 November: A strong day with 72 ktons, helped by improved clarity around delays and canal reopening.
  • 27 November: A major spike to 118 ktons, one of the highest trading days since August, driven by new-month preparations and strong consumer-side demand.
  • 28 November: Activity collapsed to 26.5 ktons, one of the quietest days in months, as charterers retreated ahead of the weekend.

Takeaway: The market’s volume displayed a weak start, strong middle, and abrupt drop at the end, highlighting the instability of underlying demand.

3. Product Trends: Distillates Steady but Light Ends Remain Under Pressure

Middle Distillates

  • Supported by occasional bursts of demand (notably 24, 26, and 27 November).
  • Rate recovery midweek failed to hold through week’s end.
  • Delays in FAME loading/discharging continued to distort capacity planning early in the week.

Light Ends

  • Clear, consistent rate pressure all week, highlighted by minimal deal activity on 24–26 November.
  • There were operators repeatedly reporting “calm” conditions and sufficient supply.
  • Further price declines on 25 and 27 November and more empty LE barges in the system.
  • Short-term upticks were absent, even on high-volume days like 27 November.

Takeaway: Distillates showed resilience, light ends reflected structural oversupply and muted blending demand.

4. Operational Factors: Delays Ease Slowly, Strikes Add Noise

Operational friction remained central but did not escalate:

  • Antwerp strike: Limited impact on inland barges but caused some waiting times for vessels mixed with sea-going vessel queues (25–26 November). There was a minimal disruption by 27 November.
  • Terminal delays: Early-week bottlenecks for FAME (Antwerp, CTB, Vesta Flushing) gradually improved by 26–27 November.
  • Albert Canal closure: Caused temporary rerouting challenges on 26 November before reopening at 18:00.

Takeaway: Although operational issues remained, none were severe enough to meaningfully tighten the market.

5. Market Outlook: Slight Downward Bias into Early December

  • Light ends expected to remain soft, with oversupply and weak blending demand continuing.
  • Distillates likely to remain stable to slightly weaker, as midweek strength appears to have been volume-driven rather than structural.
  • Adequate barge availability and improving terminal fluidity point toward a flat-to-soft market for early December.

Conclusion

The ARA barge market during 24–28 November was defined by high volatility in activity but an overall softening in freight sentiment. Despite a midweek surge in trading, reaching the highest volumes since summer, the increase in demand did not translate into rate support, as the region continued to experience ample barge availability and weak fundamentals, particularly for light ends. Operational disruptions such as strikes and terminal delays created daily noise but did not materially affect market balance. By Friday, freight levels across both distillates and light ends had settled into a stable but slightly lower range, leaving the market heading into December with more supply than demand and limited upward catalysts.

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Rhine Freight Market: Quiet Trading, Growing Barge Surplus, and Stable to Softer Rates

The Rhine CPP barge market remained remarkably subdued throughout the week of 24–28 November, with almost no freight rate movement until the final day, when Upper Rhine routes saw a slight downward adjustment. Despite high water levels and full loading capacity, spot demand remained weak, leaving operators with growing scheduling gaps and little opportunity to keep their fleets fully employed. Backwardation in gasoil futures and tepid buying interest continued to suppress chartering appetite, reinforcing a market stuck in neutral.

1. Freight Rates: Flat All Week, Then a Small Drop on Friday

  • 24 November had fully unchanged rates. No changes registered across all destinations. Gasoil backwardation and calm trading kept spot prices frozen.
  • Despite higher water levels at Maxau (approaching 600 cm), no deals prompted a shift in pricing on 25 November. Operators reported charterers postponing fixtures to next week.
  • Rates again remained unchanged by 26 November. High water levels (Maxau >600 cm) and rising Kaub levels signaled strong intakes, yet demand was too soft to move the market.
  • Even with negotiations ongoing, prices remained identical to previous reports, as weak demand and easing backwardation kept the market soft but stable.
  • By 28 November, a slight downtick occurred on Karlsruhe (–€0.75), Strasbourg (–€0.75), and Basel (–€1.59). All Lower Rhine prices remained unchanged.

Takeaway: A full week of immobility ended with mild rate declines on Upper Rhine lanes, reflecting accumulated vessel oversupply and weak inland demand.

2. Water Levels: High, Stable, and Offering Full Intakes

High water supported full loadings every day:

  • 24 November: Maxau rose from 435 cm with a forecast toward 605 cm, providing full navigability and allowing maximum intakes on all routes.
  • 25 November: Maxau remained close to 600 cm, while Kaub climbed to 316 cm, creating excellent navigation conditions throughout the Rhine system.
  • 26 November: Maxau moved further above 600 cm and Kaub was forecast to rise from 151 cm to 299 cm, ensuring uninterrupted operations with full draft capacity.
  • 27 November: Maxau shifted from 616 cm down to 416 cm and Kaub held near 252 cm; despite the downward trend, both gauges remained well within levels that support unrestricted intakes.
  • 28 November: Maxau eased from 572 cm to 520 cm and Kaub from 287 cm to 222 cm, still comfortably inside the thresholds required for full intakes along the Rhine.

Takeaway: Water levels consistently supported maximum intakes, removing hydrology as a source of rate pressure.

3. Market Activity: Calm to Silent, With Operators Struggling to Keep Fleets Busy

Spot demand remained weak throughout the period:

  • 24 November: Six deals were reported, with demand remaining limited as charterers purchased only what they deemed absolutely necessary.
  • 25 November: Three deals took place, as charterers held off for clearer water-level forecasts and showed preference for loadings scheduled early the following week.
  • 26 November: Another three deals were recorded, and operators noted growing difficulty in keeping their spot fleets fully occupied.
  • 27 November: Four deals were concluded, with negotiations continuing but more vessels becoming available for prompt loading amid persistent weak demand.
  • 28 November: Activity slowed to just two deals, with both charterers and operators largely inactive and most fleets already planned for the weekend.

Takeaway: Activity decreased steadily over the week, culminating in very low spot engagement and noticeable fleet underutilization.

4. Market Drivers: Weak Demand, Softer Backwardation, and Ample Supply

  • Backwardation weakens: The Dec–Jan gasoil spread narrowed sharply to about $14/ton by 27 November, as noted in market commentary, reducing the incentive for charterers to delay imports or hold off on stocking decisions.
  • Demand remains soft: Charterers consistently pointed to weak inland consumption and muted product demand as key reasons for limited spot activity throughout the week (24, 27, and 28 November).
  • Excess barge availability increases: Midweek observations indicated growing challenges for operators in keeping their fleets employed, highlighting a clear rise in surplus tonnage.

Takeaway: The Rhine market is well-supplied with barges, keeping freight rates under pressure.

5. Outlook: Potential Downward Pressure if Water Levels Fall

With water levels forecast to gradually decline (especially at Maxau and Kaub), some intake restrictions could emerge in early December. However, unless demand increases meaningfully, the freight market is more likely to see further softening than tightening.

Conclusion

During the week of 24–28 November, the Rhine barge freight market remained exceptionally quiet, with freight rates frozen for four consecutive sessions before slipping slightly on Upper Rhine routes at the end of the week. High water levels ensured full intakes across all destinations, but spot demand remained weak, weighed down by subdued inland consumption and soft backwardation in gasoil markets. As operators struggled to keep their fleets sufficiently employed and more barges became available for prompt loading, charterers showed little urgency to book additional tonnage. Together, these dynamics produced a stable but softening environment, leaving the Rhine market directionless and vulnerable to further rate erosion heading into December.

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ARA Freight Market: Light Ends Under Heavy Pressure While Distillates Hold Firm

The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market experienced softening freight rates, weak light-end demand, and persistent scheduling disruptions during the week of 17–21 November. Freight levels for middle distillates remained broadly stable, whereas light ends saw significant downward pressure, particularly toward the end of the week as more tonnage became available and delays eased at several terminals.

Spot market activity remained modest, fluctuating between 40–70 ktons per day, with only brief signs of improvement. Market sentiment continued to reflect subdued demand, operational inefficiencies carried over from earlier weeks, and limited appetite for fresh business from charterers.

1. Freight Rates: Distillates Stable, Light Ends Sliding

Middle Distillates

  • Rates were stable throughout the week, showing only very minor intraday corrections.
  • 17 Nov recorded slight upward ticks (+€0.01–0.02/ton) on several routes such as Cross Harbor and Flushing-related flows.
  • From 18–21 Nov, distillate routes remained broadly unchanged, supported by modest but consistent demand, even as overall market activity remained low.

Light Ends

  • The light-end segment experienced persistent rate declines all week, reflecting weaker gasoline and napththa demand, more empty LE barges being reported, and improved discharge times at Amsterdam and Rotterdam.
  • On 17 Nov, light ends fell sharply across nearly all corridors (around –€0.10 to –€0.14), driven by a surplus of empty barges and lower cargo demand.
  • The trend continued 18–20 Nov, with consistent downward corrections on Flushing, Ghent, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam routes (–€0.04 to –€0.16).
  • By 21 Nov, LE freight rates saw another step down, with Flushing and Rotterdam corridors falling further (–€0.10 to –€0.16), widening the rate gap between product types to its largest of the month.

Takeaway: Middle distillates showed resilience; light ends continued a week-long downward slide, driven by weak demand and rising barge availability.

2. Spot Volumes: Subdued Activity Within a Narrow Range

Daily traded tonnage remained constrained:

  • 17 November: 45.5 ktons, slowed by weekend terminal delays, especially affecting FAME.
  • 18 November: 44.7 ktons, with operators still renominating vessels and resolving delays.
  • 19 November: 40.4 ktons, one of the quietest days, reflecting minimal appetite for spot activity.
  • 20 November: 69.8 ktons, a temporary increase, though operators noted demand “did not feel strong.”
  • 21 November: 57.0 ktons, with activity easing again as charterers reduced enquiries and more barges opened.

Takeaway: Despite a brief midweek uptick, the market remained fundamentally soft due to inconsistent demand and operational drag.

3. Product Trends: Distillates Steady, Light Ends Weak

Distillates

  • Cargo flows remained steady, supported by ongoing ARA demand and typical November activity levels.
  • Scheduling delays (especially FAME at Chane Botlek, Sea-Tank 450, and Vopak Vlaardingen) remained a feature early in the week.
  • By 20–21 Nov, delays eased, helping stabilize distillate freight levels.

Light Ends

  • Persistent weakness all week in the subdued blending activity, and excess empty barges reported daily.
  • Faster discharge times for LE cargoes increased available tonnage.
  • Operators repeatedly referenced empty LE barges, underscoring the soft fundamentals.

Takeaway: The divergence between distillates and light ends widened meaningfully, distillates steady, light ends increasingly oversupplied.

4. Operational Factors: Delays, Renominations, and Gradual Improvement

Operational friction was a defining feature again:

  • Heavy delays for FAME, vessel renominations, and ongoing congestion at key terminals (Chane Botlek, Sea-Tank 450, Vopak Vlaardingen) strongly impacted planning by 17–18 November.
  • Operators still busy rescheduling vessels due to lingering operational issues; LE availability high around 19 November.
  • FAME delays no longer mentioned, scheduled flows began to normalize.
  • Faster LE discharge cycles created excess LE barge availability, reinforcing rate declines for that segment by 21 November.

Takeaway: While operations improved through the week, early delays kept the market sluggish then improved logistics contributed to weaker freight sentiment.

5. Market Outlook: Soft to Stable, With Light Ends Still Vulnerable

Looking forward into late November:

  • Middle distillate rates expected to remain stable, supported by steady demand and no major operational bottlenecks.
  • Light ends likely to remain under pressure due to high barge availability, weak blending demand, and faster turnaround times at key terminals.
  • Overall sentiment remains soft, with the market unlikely to firm unless demand recovers or adverse weather disrupts barge availability.

Conclusion: A Split Market Defined by Weak Light Ends and Resilient Distillates

During 17–21 November, the ARA barge freight market showed a clear divergence between product segments. Middle distillates held steady, supported by consistent demand and improving terminal operations, while light ends weakened significantly due to an oversupply of barges, reduced blending activity, and faster discharge cycles. Spot volumes moved within a narrow trading range, early-week operational challenges slowed activity, and overall freight sentiment remained soft throughout the period. With no major demand drivers on the horizon, the market is expected to remain stable to negative, particularly for the light-end segment.

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Rhine Freight Market: Stable Rates Amid Weak Demand and Price Volatility

The Rhine barge market in the week of 17–21 November was marked by stable-to-softer rates, calm trading conditions, and ongoing uncertainty driven by volatile gasoil pricing. Water levels fluctuated but remained high enough to support moderate intakes across most routes, preventing any hydrology-driven rate support. Market sentiment was shaped by low urgency from charterers, fully booked fleets on the operator side, and a backwardated futures structure that continued to discourage stockbuilding.

1. Freight Rates: Mostly Stable, With Isolated Minor Adjustments

Freight rates showed minimal movement during the week:

  • At the start of the week, rates remained broadly stable, though Strasbourg experienced a small €0.75 decline and Basel slipped by €0.05, while other destinations held firm.
  • Following a few higher-priced deals, Cologne saw a modest €0.50 increase, whereas other routes stayed unchanged.
  • As inquiry levels softened mid-week, Basel edged slightly lower (–€0.40), but most routes remained steady.
  • Later in the week, rate levels were completely unchanged, with spot activity slowing significantly.
  • By the end of the week, rates stayed stable once again, as the market turned quiet, and hardly any spot business was registered.

Takeaway: The Rhine freight market saw virtually no rate movement, reflecting limited trading appetite and a well-balanced supply–demand environment.

2. Water Levels: Fluctuating but Supportive for High Intakes

Hydrology was not a constraining factor this week:

  • 17 November: Kaub at 148 cm, forecast to rise toward 200 cm; Maxau at 465 cm, fully navigable.
  • 18 November: Kaub at 141 cm but rising to 172 cm, enabling 1,700–1,800-ton intakes for 110m barges; Maxau stable in the 440–470 cm band.
  • 19 November: Maxau decreased slightly (to 459 cm), while Kaub increased to 141 cm, both favorable for full loading conditions.
  • 20 November: Kaub increased marginally (hovering 150–160 cm forecast), Maxau steady at 450–440 cm range.
  • 21 November: Kaub at 156 cm, Maxau at 445 cm, both forecast to increase the following week, allowing nearly full intakes mid-week.

Takeaway: High, stable water levels ensured full navigability and kept logistical cost pressures low.

3. Market Activity: From Moderate Early Week to Nearly Silent by Friday

The spot market weakened progressively through the week:

  • A slight uptick in activity with six deals, despite delays and colder weather raising interest in heated barges.
  • Nine deals recorded, one of the week’s busier days, though sentiment remained cautious due to gasoil price volatility and lighter COA nominations for the upcoming week.
  • Eight deals with operators reporting steady but unspectacular business; cancellations on scheduled trips created some unexpected vessel availability by the middle of the week.
  • Activity dropped sharply to just one deal, with charterers declaring they had already covered their needs for the week and gasoil backwardation discouraging any stock building.
  • The week closed with only one deal, reflecting a virtually inactive market as both sides awaited clearer signals into late November.

Takeaway: The second half of the week saw near-standstill activity, driven by low charterer appetite and high gasoil price uncertainty.

4. Market Drivers: Backwardation, Volatility, and Slowing Demand

The week’s behavior was guided by three main forces:

  • Steep Gasoil Backwardation: The spread between the current gasoil contract and the next month reached roughly $40/ton, sharply discouraging stockbuilding and delaying charterer decisions.
  • High Price Volatility: Gasoil prices moved rapidly throughout the week, making traders and importers hesitant to fix new business.
  • Demand Softness and Fully Booked Fleets: Most barge operators reported their spot fleets already assigned for the coming weekend, while charterers indicated satisfaction with their existing allocations, creating little room for additional spot activity.

Takeaway: The combination of backwardation and low demand left little incentive for additional Rhine movements.

5. Outlook: Flat Market Expected, With Potential Softness Ahead

Looking into late November:

  • The backwardated product structure is expected to continue limiting inland movements.
  • Water levels are forecast to rise modestly, preserving full intakes and preventing rate pressure.
  • Unless a demand-side catalyst emerges, such as colder weather pushing heating oil flows, freight rates are likely to remain flat with a slight downward bias.

Conclusion

Overall, the Rhine barge freight market during 17–21 November remained remarkably stable, with freight rates essentially unchanged across all destinations and trading activity dwindling as the week progressed. Ample water depth allowed for full barge intakes, eliminating any logistical support that might otherwise have lifted prices. At the same time, steep backwardation in gasoil futures, fluctuating product prices, and lackluster demand kept charterers on the sidelines, while barge operators reported their fleets largely committed but not overly busy. With both supply and demand balanced yet unmotivated, the market settled into a quiet equilibrium, ending the week calm, flat, and waiting for a stronger directional signal heading into late November.

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ARA Freight Market: High Volumes, Softer Rates, and a Market Searching for Direction

The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market in the week of 10-14 November displayed a mix of strong trading activity, slightly weaker freight rates, and increasing operational stability after months of congestion. While volumes surged early in the week, reaching the highest level since the beginning of October, the freight market itself softened as barge availability improved and blending activity for light ends eased.

1. Freight Rates: Consistent Downward Pressure Through the Week

Freight rates drifted lower across nearly all major ARA routes, with middle distillates consistently weakening and light ends undergoing modest corrections:

  • 10 November: Nearly all routes saw freight declines of €0.04-0.05/ton, especially on Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam and Flushing routes. Distillates were notably weaker, while light ends held firmer in price.
  • 11 November: Rates fell again by €0.07-0.09/ton for most corridors reflecting a surplus of available barges and calm demand ahead of the ICE expiry.
  • 12 November: Another session of broad declines, albeit slightly smaller (-€0.02 to -€0.08), confirming a peak in October’s rate surge had passed.
  • 13 November: A split picture emerged: middle distillate rates increased slightly across all routes, while light ends softened, reflecting reduced blending activity and improved discharge conditions in Amsterdam.
  • 14 November: Freight rates stayed mostly flat, with very small changes (±€0.03) and overall stability across both product groups.

Takeaway: Rates trended down 2-5% week-on-week for most distillate and light-end routes. After October’s strength, the market has shifted into a softer, more liquid pricing environment.

2. Spot Volumes: From High Momentum to a Sharp Midweek Drop

Volumes fluctuated dramatically throughout the week:

  • 10 November: Activity surged to 105.9 ktons, the highest since early October.
  • 11 November: A steep drop to 40.5 ktons, described as “quiet,” despite many barges being offered into the market.
  • 12 November: Activity rebounded to 101.4 ktons, driven by expiring ICE contracts and release of barges after long delays in the light ends segment.
  • 13 November: Spot volume peaked at 126 ktons, the highest since August, as players pushed to book November-loading parcels after expiry.
  • 14 November: Activity fell back to 64 ktons, with most parties postponing fresh business into the following week.

Takeaway: The market was highly ICE-expiry-driven, with volume spikes occurring on 12-13 November. Outside these days, trading interest remained cautious.

3. Product Trends: Distillates Struggle, Light Ends Lose Momentum

The week showed clear divergence between product groups:

Middle Distillates

  • Rates declined steadily 10-12 November (-€0.04 to -€0.09 each day).
  • Slight rebound on 13 November as post-expiry demand temporarily lifted the segment.
  • Flat on 14 November amid low liquidity and growing barge availability.

Light Ends

  • Prices held firmer early in the week.
  • On 13 November, light ends experienced across-the-board rate decreases, attributed to vanishing Amsterdam delays and lower blending activity.
  • By 14 November, rates were stable again, but liquidity was very low.

Takeaway: Distillates were more volatile, but both segments ultimately softened. Light ends face weaker fundamentals as blending slows into late November.

4. Operational Factors: Improved Fluidity After Months of Congestion

Several structural improvements were noted:

  • Amsterdam delays eased significantly by midweek, freeing up barges more quickly and softening light-end prices.
  • On 12 November, many barges finally completed discharging after extended delays, increasing available capacity.
  • November 12-14 reports showed more voyages closed on PJK B/L basis, including several with deeper discounts as players sought to secure volumes following ICE expiry.

Takeaway: The ARA system ran more efficiently than at any time since September. This efficiency contributed directly to weaker freight momentum.

5. Market Outlook: ICE Expiry, Barge Availability, and Fading Blending Demand

Major forces shaping the week:

  • ICE Gasoil November expiry drove the largest volume spikes (12-13 November) and caused temporary rate fragmentation as traders finalized positions.
  • Prompt barge availability increased sharply late in the week, particularly for Monday-Tuesday loadings of the following week, signaling a shift back to oversupply conditions.
  • Blending slowdown in Amsterdam reduced demand for small/light-end barges, softening rates throughout the week.

Takeaway: Fundamentals point to a softer ARA freight market heading into mid-November, with oversupply outweighing spot bursts.

Conclusion: ARA Market Softens After ICE-Driven Spike

The ARA CPP barge market in 10-14 November can be summarized in three words:
volatile, softer, stabilizing.

Rates drifted lower across most routes, volumes surged midweek due to ICE expiry, and operational fluidity improved as terminal delays eased. With barge availability rising and blending activity slowing, the market enters late November with weaker fundamentals even as occasional bursts of spot demand continue to punctuate activity.

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Rhine Freight Market: Stable Rates, Weak Demand, and Mounting Price Volatility

The Rhine clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market remained subdued and directionless through the week of 10-14 November. Freight rates stayed flat or softened slightly on Upper Rhine routes, while Lower Rhine destinations held steady. Market sentiment was dominated by weak demand, price volatility in gasoil, and high-water levels that maintained full intakes and prevented any logistical tightening.

1. Freight Rates: Mostly Flat, Softness on Upper Rhine Routes

Freight rates showed little variation throughout the week, holding in a narrow band with small downward adjustments primarily on routes south of Koblenz:

  • 10 November: Some light corrections, Duisburg fell by a small margin, while Strasbourg rose slightly (+0.50 €/ton).
  • 11 November: Clear downward adjustments on Upper Rhine destinations: Karlsruhe, Strasbourg, and Basel all fell by around €0.50, reflecting lower spot demand and hesitation linked to volatile gasoil futures.
  • 12 November: All routes held unchanged, with zero day-to-day movement; Basel ticked up slightly by +0.08 €/ton.
  • 13 November: A modest rebound on Upper Rhine lanes, Karlsruhe (+0.25), Strasbourg (+0.50), and Basel (+0.29) driven by reduced intakes (1,700-1,800 tons) and early signs of tightening as water levels fell.
  • 14 November: The week ended flat across all destinations, as all routes remain unchanged.

Takeaway: Rates remained stable to slightly weaker, with only brief upward adjustments midweek when intakes dipped.

2. Water Levels: High but Falling, Intakes Still Near Maximum

Hydrology remained largely supportive, allowing nearly full 110m barge intakes through most of the week:

  • Maxau stood at 495 cm and Kaub at 215 cm, both on a gentle downward trajectory but still enabling roughly 2,000-ton intakes by November 10.
  • Levels continued to ease, with Maxau at 487 cm and Kaub at 201 cm; forecasts hinted at a possible shift to 1,600–1,800-ton intakes after the weekend.
  • Maxau slipped to 475 cm and Kaub to 189 cm, though still high enough to support efficient operations, with only slight further easing expected.
  • Maxau dipped to 450 cm but was forecast to rebound toward 490 cm, while Kaub reached 169 cm with a predicted rise into the 152–242 cm range still sufficient for strong loadability.

Takeaway: Although water levels fluctuated, they never fell low enough to create logistical pressure or increase rates.

3. Market Activity: Low Volume, Hesitant Traders, Quiet Close

Trading activity softened as the week progressed:

  • 10 November: The busiest day of the week, with 11 reported deals, mostly contract-driven and related to clearing weekend delays.
  • 11 November: Only five deals concluded; traders grew reluctant due to gasoil price swings of nearly $30/ton intraday.
  • 12 November: Five deals again; overall activity remained low and unchanged from the prior day.
  • 13 November: Only three deals, nearly all for the Upper Rhine, as operators struggled to find spot opportunities in a calm market.
  • 14 November: Just one deal, as the market fully quieted ahead of the weekend.

Takeaway: Spot demand was extremely weak, and the market closed the week in near-standstill conditions.

4. Market Drivers: Gasoil Volatility and Ample Stocks Keep Buyers on Sidelines

Several structural factors shaped market behavior during 10–14 November, keeping trading muted and sentiment cautious:

  • Gasoil price volatility remained the dominant influence, with ICE gasoil contracts experiencing sharp intraday swings of $30–50/ton. This instability discouraged speculative moves and reduced willingness to commit to fresh barge bookings.
  • Persistent backwardation continued to curb storage-related flows, as inland buyers opted to delay lifting product in hopes of more favorable price signals.
  • Ample barge availability further softened conditions; although many vessels were occupied with COA and scheduled movements, there was no shortage of tonnage for spot inquiries, limiting any upward pressure on rates.
  • Weak inland demand added to the subdued tone, with charterers well-supplied and showing little urgency to move additional volumes, particularly evident in the second half of the week.

Takeaway: A combination of volatile gasoil pricing, backwardation, and sluggish demand kept the market subdued, preventing any meaningful rate momentum.

5. Outlook: Flat Market Expected, With Slight Tightening Possible

Based on water-level forecasts and market commentary:

  • Rates likely to remain flat into the following week, as no significant demand catalyst is visible.
  • Possible mild tightening if water levels continue to drop toward the lower forecast ranges (esp. Kaub), but intakes remain high enough that any impact will be limited.
  • Market sentiment remains cautious heading into the post-expiry period.

Takeaway: The Rhine market appears set for continued stability, with no immediate drivers for significant rate increases.

Conclusion: A Market on Hold

The Rhine CPP freight market ended 10-14 November in a quiet, directionless state. Freight rates were essentially flat, supported by high but decreasing water levels that kept barge intakes near maximum and prevented any logistical tightening. Demand remained weak throughout the week, and gasoil price volatility further discouraged fresh activity, leading to steadily declining deal numbers. With charterers well-supplied and little pressure to move product, the market closed the week subdued and stable, with only limited potential for minor tightening ahead.

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