CITGO Petroleum Corporation Prices $1.10 Billion Senior Secured Notes

CITGO Petroleum Corporation (“CITGO”) has priced $1.10 billion aggregate principal amount of 8.375% senior secured notes due 2029 (the “notes”) in a private offering exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The closing of the offering is expected to occur on September 20, 2023, subject to customary closing conditions.

CITGO intends to use the total net proceeds from the sale of the notes for general corporate purposes and to pay all fees and expenses in connection with the sale of the notes.

In addition, CITGO intends to pay a dividend to CITGO Holding, Inc. (“CITGO Holding”) of approximately $1.120 billion to fund the pending redemption of the $1.286 billion aggregate principal amount of CITGO Holding’s 9.25% senior secured notes due 2024 (the “CITGO Holding notes”).  The redemption of the CITGO Holding notes is contingent upon the consummation of the notes offering.

This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the notes, nor will there be any sale of the notes in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.  This press release does not constitute a notice of redemption with respect to the CITGO Holding notes.

The offer and sale of the notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration requirements.

The notes are being offered only to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in compliance with Regulation S under the Securities Act.

By PR News, September 29, 2023

An Oil Boom Is Underway In Ghana

Several African countries have welcomed investment in oil and gas in recent years, as parts of the continent undergo industrialization and investors look to develop new reserves. Africa provides companies with the potential for low-cost, low-carbon oil and gas in largely unexplored areas.

But governments across the region hope to be more closely involved in operations, ensuring that they get a significant proportion of the revenues to bolster their economies. One such country is Ghana, which expects an oil boom over the next decade and beyond. 

At the COP27 climate summit last year, several African state leaders presented the case for the development of the region’s oil and gas resources. Following a year of shortages and surging energy prices, several countries with oil and gas potential urged investors to develop new, low-carbon operations to meet the global demand without having to rely on aging, carbon-heavy operations. And many energy firms are now viewing regions such as Africa and the Caribbean as vital to their aims to decarbonize. 

In Ghana, there are 17 oil and gas projects in the 2023 to 2027 pipeline. This includes 3 upstream projects, nine projects in the midstream sector, and five new downstream projects.

Ghana is now one of Africa’s fastest-growing hydrocarbon producers. There are several oil operations already underway in the West African country, with Phase 1 of the Pecan Conventional Oilfield as well as the Jubilee South East field and Ntomme Far West Development. 

Pecan is expected to have a capacity of 82,500 bpd when production begins in 2025, with phase 1 costing $1.5 billion. It is operated by exploration and production company Aker Energy Ghana Ltd. (50%); petroleum corporation Lukoil (38%); Ghana’s state-owned Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) (10%); and transport company Bulk Ship & Trade (2%). Meanwhile, the Jubilee South East field should begin producing 37,000 bpd by the end of the year. The field is operated by Tullow Oil (38.98%), deepwater exploration and production company Kosmos Energy (38.61%); the GNPC (19.69%); and South Africa’s National Oil Company (NOC) PetroSA (2.72%). Ghana hopes to discover further oil and gas deposits in the Ntomme Far West Development, with a pre-feasibility analysis having taken place and exploration drilling planned for later this year. 

Meanwhile, the country’s midstream sector will expand alongside exploration and production operations. Ghana plans to develop the Tema Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) Plant, the Tema VI Liquids Storage Terminal, the Dixcove Oil Storage Facility, the Wa Oil Storage Facility and the Tema-Akosombo II and Tema Pipelines between 2023 to 2027. 

In March this year, the African Energy Chamber stated that Ghana hopes to double its oil output by the end of the year, from 180,000 bpd to 420,000 bpd. The CEO of the Petroleum Commission of Ghana, Egbert Faibille Jr., stated “Ghana has positioned itself to attract investments in the energy sector.

We present one of the best investment opportunities in the sub-region. Following the Jubilee discovery in 2007, 30 additional discoveries have been made and are pending appraisal and development. Ghana guarantees attractive fiscal terms. These terms have proven over the years to provide a favorable investment framework.” Faibille added, “We have several blocks open for direct negotiation and three available for farm-in opportunities.

We have some fields that are in pre-development, so if we are able to get contractors, we should see a surge in production by 2030.”

Ghana’s oil operations are already well underway, with the country expecting to open a new $1.98 billion oil refinery in Tema this month.

The Sentuo Group’s facility is expected to produce 5 million metric tonnes of petroleum products including liquified petroleum gas (LPG), jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil. Ghana’s Minister of Trade and Industry confirmed last month that Sentuo is in discussions with the government to acquire 500,000 barrels of crude for refining.

By 2025, Sentuo plans to expand the facility to refine 4.26 million tonnes of petroleum products. 

Meanwhile, Britain’s Tullow Oil announced the start of operations at the Jubilee South East (JSE) project in July. The company said that the first well started producing, with another two producers and a water injector expected to come online later in the year. Tullow hopes the field will produce over 100,000 bpd once operational.

The firm’s CEO stated, “Successful start-up at Jubilee South East is a significant milestone for Tullow and for Ghana.” He added, “We are well positioned for future growth with production ramping up in the second half of 2023 that will generate significant free cash flow.

This marks the start of material deleveraging as we continue our transition into a low-debt business with the financial flexibility to pursue value accretive opportunities.” 

Ghana is viewed as Africa’s rising star, thanks to its stable political system, growing economy, and the rapid development of its oil and gas sector.

There are several projects in the pipeline, with oil production expected to increase significantly by 2030. Ghana could provide oil producers with the opportunity to develop the low-cost, low-carbon oil needed to meet the high global demand en route to an eventual global energy transition.

OilPrice.com by Felicity Bradstock, August 23, 2023

Nigeria Looks To Attract Oil & Gas Investment At International Roadshow

Nigeria plans to hold an international roadshow to attract investments in its upstream sector, the petroleum regulator of OPEC’s biggest African oil producer said in a speech shared with Reuters.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) plans to organize in the coming weeks an international roadshow to pitch upstream investments in the country, which looks to boost its oil production and significantly raise its natural gas output.     

NUPRC plans to organize in the coming weeks its first Nigerian Upstream International Investment and Financial Roadshow (NUIIFR) to allow upstream players to network and discuss financial structures to enable investment, representatives of the regulator said in a speech at a conference of the Society of Petroleum Engineers in Lagos earlier this week.

“Whereas the global imperatives for energy transition is clear and justified, the need for Africa’s energy security, economic development and prosperity cannot be overemphasised,” the Nigerian regulator said.

Nigeria aims to significantly increase its oil production to up to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by November 2023, hoping to win a higher quota in the OPEC+ agreement, Gabriel Tanimu Aduda, Permanent Secretary at Nigeria’s Ministry of Petroleum Resources, told Energy Intelligence last month.

Nigeria has consistently failed to produce to its quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The combination of pipeline vandalism and oil theft with a lack of investment in capacity has made Nigeria the biggest laggard in crude oil production in the OPEC+ alliance. Oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long plagued Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry, driving majors out of the country and often resulting in force majeure at the key crude oil export terminals.

Nigeria’s quota was 1.742 million bpd earlier this year, but due to its underproduction of more than 400,000 bpd, the output cap for Nigeria was lowered to 1.38 million bpd at the OPEC+ meeting in early June.

Oilprice.com by Charles Kennedy, August 8, 2023

One Sector To Watch Oil As Oil Prices Rally

After remaining range-bound for much of the second quarter, oil prices have mounted a significant rally, with analysts saying oil markets are finally waking up to the fact that fundamentals have tightened significantly. After remaining in surplus for months, many experts have predicted that demand will begin to surpass supply thus improving oil prices and margins for oil refiners.

For instance, StanChart’s demand model projects a supply deficit of 2.81 million barrels per day in August; 2.43 mb/d in September and more than 2mb/d in November and December.

The analysts have also projected that global inventories will fall by 310 mb by end-2023 and another 94 mb in the first quarter of 2024 thus pushing oil prices higher.  

Although U.S. oil refinery margins have halved since the middle of 2022, they remain at historically high levels and are likely to remain elevated through the summer of 2023 thanks to high operating rates and low fuel stocks.

Gross margins for refining three barrels of crude to produce two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel oil have retreated to $33 per barrel from a record $60 at the start of June 2022. Still, margins are in the 95th percentile for all trading days since 2001, underpinning refinery profitability and encouraging high levels of capacity utilization. 

Revenues and profits for refining companies have declined from last year’s historical highs but remain at healthy levels. Here are three refining stocks to keep an eye on.

Marathon Petroleum Corp

Market Cap: $54.3B

Dividend Yield: 2.6%

YTD Returns: 22.5%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company and the largest petroleum refinery operator in the United States. The company’s latest earnings revealed strong refinery demand despite general economic malaise. Marathon’s Q2 2023 revenue of $36.82B (-32.1% Y/Y) beats the Wall Street consensus by $2.94B while GAAP EPS of $5.32 beat by $0.74.

Net income fell to $2.23B, or $5.32/share, from $5.87B, or $10.95/share from a year ago while adjusted EBITDA was cut in half to $4.53B from $9.06B a year ago. Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA fell to $11.88/bbl from $27.79/bbl for the prior-year quarter while segment margin was $22.10/bbl compared with $37.54/bbl in last year’s corresponding quarter.

Crude capacity utilization clocked in at 93% with total throughput of 2.9M bbl/day.

Marathon Ol continues returning copious amounts of cash to shareholders: The company revealed that it returned ~$3.4B of capital through $3.1B of stock buybacks and $316M of dividends in the second quarter. The company’s diversification into renewables gives Marathon Oil better protection from fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

PBF Energy Inc.

Market Cap: $6.0B

Dividend Yield: 1.3%

YTD Returns: 26.2%

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. PBF is one of the youngest oil refiners in the United States having been created in 2008. The company released its quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with revenue of $9.16B (-34.9% Y/Y) beating by $230M while Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.29 beat by $0.05.

In-line with the industry trend, Q2 net income fell to $1.02B, or $7.88/share, from $1.2B, or $9.65/share, in the year-earlier quarter.  production fell slightly to 945,700 bbl/day from 958,800 bbl/day a year earlier. Refinery throughput fell to 935,800 bbl/day from 958,800 bbl/day a year ago and expects full-year production to average 915K-975K bbl/day.

And, just like its bigger peer, PBF Energy is diversifying into renewables: the company announced it had begun operations at its St. Bernard renewable fuel joint venture in New Orleans, and managed to sell the first products from the facility in July. The 50-50 joint venture with Eni S.p.A.(NYSE:E) has a processing capacity of ~1.1M tons/year of raw materials and will produce ~7.3M bbl/year of renewable diesel.

Phillips 66

Market Cap: $48.5B

Dividend Yield: 3.9%

YTD Returns:9.0%

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) is one of the oldest refineries in the United States. The company operates as an energy manufacturing and logistics company, with its refining segment one of its largest. Phillips 66 reported Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.87, beating the consensus by $0.31.

The company does not report revenue figures but said it generated $1.0 billion of operating cash flow ($2.0 billion excluding working capital).  Realized refining margins fell to $15.32/bbl from $28.62/bbl a year ago. Phillips 66 revealed that it plans to run its refineries in the mid-90% range of their combined crude oil throughput capacity of 1.9M bbl/day in Q3, close to second quarter’s figure at 93%.

Phillips 66 announced that its Rodeo refinery in California will be fully converted to renewable diesel production by the first quarter of 2024 when it is scheduled to begin commercial operation.

Oilprice.com by Alex Kimani, August 8, 2023

Saudi Aramco To Pump $7 bln Into Biggest Petchem Investment In South Korea

Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) plans a $7-billion investment at a South Korean affiliate’s factory in the port city of Ulsan to turn out more high-value petrochemical products, the company said on Thursday.

The project, named Shaheen, is the Saudi firm’s biggest investment in the Asian nation to develop one of the world’s largest refinery-integrated petrochemical steam crackers, Aramco said in a statement.

Saudi Aramco owns more than 63% of South Korean refiner S-Oil Corp (010950.KS).

Construction of the new plant will begin in 2023 and be completed by 2026. It will have production capacity of up to 3.2 million tonnes a year, along with a facility to produce high-value polymers, Aramco said.

The steam cracker is expected to process by-products from crude processing, including naphtha and off-gas, to make ethylene, and is also expected to produce propylene, butadiene and other basic chemicals.

On completion of the project, S-Oil’s chemical yield, by volume, could almost double to 25%, Aramco said.

Global petrochemical demand growth is “anticipated to accelerate, driven in part by rising consumption from Asia’s emerging economies,” Chief Executive Amin Nasser said in the statement.

The project is well positioned to meet rising demand from Asia’s industries, he added.

The news came in conjunction with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to South Korea on Thursday.

Reuters by Joyce Lee, November 18, 2022

Market Intelligence in its 5 Stages of Maturity

For owners of terminals Market Intelligence (MI) can be the key factor to unlock pathways to cost reductions, smarter investments and growth. If the management team succeeds in predominantly making well-informed choices based on easily digestible structured information the whole outlook for the company could change. With strong MI it is also possible to zoom in on currently underperforming terminals where market adjustment and optimization will lead to better performance and profitability.

In the world of Market Intelligence there is a best practice developed by the Global Intelligence Alliance or GIA (currently active under the new company name M-Brain). It’s widely known as the GIA Framework for developing World Class Market Intelligence. The company published it in 2009 in a whitepaper titled World Class Market Intelligence – From Firefighters to Futurists.

Basically, it thoroughly explains a matrix with on the vertical axis 6 Key Success Factors (KSF) and on the horizontal axis 5 Stages of Market Maturity.

The 5 Stages of Market Intelligence Maturity

GIA gave the 5 stages frivolous yet insightful names like firefighters for the poorest, informal, last minute, ad hoc intelligence gathering and futurists for the world class MI of truly visionary companies.

  1. Informal Market Intelligence – “Firefighters”
  2. Basic Market Intelligence – “Beginners”
  3. Intermediate Market Intelligence – “Coordinators”
  4. Advanced Market Intelligence – “Directors”
  5. Word Class Market Intelligence – “Futurists”

Let’s look at each stage individually:

Informal Market Intelligence:

Any tank terminal operation, and any company for that matter, handles various sources and streams of information of course. At this stage of maturity companies will probably not even use the label “market intelligence” for their information gathering and sharing activities. There is no predefined scope to these activities that will typically be done ad hoc when needed with little coordination and with little or no tools and resources.

Basic Market Intelligence:

Companies that have at least heard about Market Intelligence and its benefits may also be on a path with some “basic” first steps toward an actual MI program. Such a tank terminal operation might already engage an external service provider for some of their information needs. The activities are still mostly done ad hoc, like while preparing for a merger or an acquisition. There is however already some structure to how the intelligence is gathered, stored and shared.

Intermediate Market Intelligence:

At the intermediate stage a company is well aware of the benefits of market intelligence, has maybe seen some good case studies and is motivated to do better themselves. It is likely such a company will allocate some budget for services of external providers and a first set of software tools. At this stage the scope and the level of analysis of the MI remains rather limited, partly because the intelligence operation is only loosely integrated to business processes, if at all.

Advanced Market Intelligence:

Once a company has really internalized the need for the most insightful intelligence for its business processes, once it has assigned a network of employees who can spend a certain percentage of their time on MI and once it has established an external network of information sources and vendors such a company reaches the advanced stage of MI. A tank terminal operation in this stage will have defined concrete deliverables of the MI process that actually match the needs articulated by decision-makers. True and obvious benefits ensue, further deepening the commitment of the management to treat MI as a vital part of the organization.

World-Class Market Intelligence:

Beyond the advanced stage and benefits clearly translate into growth and profitability there is a route to move on to the “World-Class” level, where Market Intelligence will be established as an integral part of all corporate business processes and there is a deep focus on future topics and issues. The market leader in the tank terminal business has gone this route starting the implementation already back in 2007. The case study in the Handbook of Market Intelligence (describing the status in 2009) demonstrates that there is always room for improvement. But exactly that is where the greatness lies: once a true MI culture permeates an organization, remaining humble and continuing to improve becomes a second nature.

Let’s now look at the 6 Key Success Factors of Market Intelligence one by one.

The 6 Key Success Factors of Market Intelligence

Scope

In order to not drown in an ocean of information, it is important to limit the MI by clearly defining the scope of the intelligence. In principle a deep and wide scope is desirable, but in the beginning, you can juggle only so many balls. Scope then limits the specific intelligence topics that will be researched at all.

Process

So, with the defined scope, that may become ever wider and deeper, a tank terminal operation knows what information to dig for and who to deliver it to. The process aspect of the information flow looks at how information is gathered and delivered.

Deliverables

Market intelligence projects need to determine at the outset how the output of the information gathered will be delivered and shared. Think of deliverables like internal newsletters, documents, spreadsheets and presentations. They can also include workshops and seminars.

Tools

A corporate intranet is typically the first big company-wide tool that companies implement, and that allows for a basic level of MI in their organization. With that a tank terminal operation has at least moved away from the informal spaghetti of email threads. Beyond the basic level, there are more advanced generic or custom-built MI software tools that thoroughly and specifically embed the MI in the organization.

Organization

Putting someone at the helm of the MI operation is the logical starting point of allocating people and their time to the intelligence activity. Without that the MI naturally stays informal and ad hoc. With that first person appointed the MI can start to grow and internal and external networks can be built.

Culture

At the low end of MI maturity, a tank terminal operator has no “Intelligence culture”. There may be some intelligence gathering and sharing activity, but if the management or the employees don’t really cherish it, it will probably not go very far. Towards an advanced maturity level more and more employees are engaged via courses and training and see the benefits of strong MI. What may still be lacking then is the support of senior management or even the CEO. The high mark is when the CEO becomes the biggest internal promoter of MI.

The important thing to remember when trying to reach the next MI level is to assess what you need and what you want to accomplish. You have to assess your current level of Market Intelligence Maturity first and set a timeframe of progress towards the advanced stage. It is probably worthwhile to focus on some quick fixes and wins first if one or more of the 6 KSF’s are dramatically worse than others. Yet it’s also valuable to further strengthen the ones that are already at a high level. 

World class MI might be out of reach for many smaller tank terminal operations, yet it is still a good idea to know about it. At the world class maturity level, a company has a broad, deep focus on future topics and a systematic process that continuously produces insights into the company’s operating environment. That company will also have a dedicated Chief Data Officer who’s in charge of structuring all intelligence activities across the company. This manager would typically be responsible for the annual “Intelligence plan” that is updated year by year with vision and metrics on dimensions such as sales, business development, operations and finance and management.

Advanced or world class MI for tank terminal operators specifically entails:

  • A profound knowledge of the market of liquid bulk shipping and storage
  • An in-depth knowledge of the current and future competitive environment
  • Essential knowledge of regional and global trade flows and trends 

In an ideal situation MI will not remain an isolated function in the company but may rather inspire the whole company to become a learning organization open to and embracing new trends and ideas. In the end management can make better decisions at a quicker pace which increases revenue and reduces costs. Valuable new customers will be attracted and facilities will be built that are future proof.

This blog post is a shortened version of a chapter in the whitepaper “Market Intelligence for tank terminal operators” that can be downloaded via the banner below.

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

Optimizing sales and growth with Market Intelligence

What is the key factor, the bottom-line that determines the success of a terminal operator? Of course it is the percentage of tanks that are rented out over a given period of time and the fee or rate that these tanks generate. The people realizing this bottom-line day in day out are your sales and account managers. What can Market Intelligence do to help them reach their targets? And what can Market Intelligence do to secure future growth?

Market Intelligence helps establish three pillars of your success, by:

1: Continuously investigating market trends and price movements

2: Investigating what mix of customer sizes and their desires and what mix of liquid bulk products will make the terminal operation run most smoothly over time

3: Via competitive intelligence giving each sales and account manager the right information at his or her fingertips when entering price negotiations

The first pillar lays the groundwork for all strategic decision making. It will guide your commercial team to where growth and value can be found. The second means that a company will not let sales managers just blindly hunt for any customer. It will guide them towards the right deals that will strengthen the terminal’s position and competitiveness and at the same time will guard against having a portfolio of clients that does not match with logistical capabilities and constraints. For instance part of the terminal can be reserved for customers who need strategic storage, like governments. The staff responsible for Market Intelligence can make calculations and show exactly why it could be beneficial to reserve a given percentage of the terminal for such a customer who pays a somewhat lower price but signs a long term contract and does not require a lot of throughput capacity.

Price negotiations

The third pillar with which Market Intelligence helps sales and account management is literally hands-on as a staff department giving the sales or account manager all key numbers, prices, competitor intelligence and other metrics needed to negotiate good contracts. A sales manager can only make good deals when they have superior market and customer information at their fingertips. A customer will notice when their negotiating partner is well informed and be more likely to accept an offer.

Logistics

When making such optimal sales strategy plans, a big consideration is the effective use of terminal installations like jetty’s and pipelines. It makes no sense to do a lot of sales for a certain product in certain volumes only then to note that logistically it’s impossible to service these customers without long and expensive waiting times. On the other hand with proper market intelligence it becomes possible to even plan investments in new installations when for instance it is known that a new customer, or a new product, will very likely grow strongly in the years to come.    

Avoid chaos

Market Intelligence can “design” an optimal mix of good (i.e. growing) customers where you have enough diversity to respond to short term demand fluctuations, but still create a stable business with a hub function for certain preferred liquid bulk products and a number of larger dedicated customers. In this way day to day chaos at the jetties, caused by a multitude of hyper-active customers, can be avoided. And the customer benefits too from this smart planning since they hate to pay demurrage. Market Intelligence is there to make sure that everything in the terminal operation happens in the smartest way possible with the largest economies of scale!

Counter-intuitive

Sometimes good market intelligence can help a business spot counter-intuitive opportunities. For instance when globally investments in oil facilities go down, at the terminal level the effect might be contrary. Decreasing funding may lead to the phasing out of local refineries which in turn increases global shipping of refined products. So less investment in fossil fuels can in certain cases lead to increased demand for tank capacity. Without good Market Intelligence it is practically impossible to instruct sales and account management to look into such changing opportunities.

Competitive edge

To conclude we can say that, starting from current awareness, through strategy and business development, it is crucial that Market Intelligence extends deeply into the sales and account management. Only then the benefits of all the labor in the prior stages can be reaped. Only in this way a terminal operator will get the competitive edge over the competition, that will lead to sustained excellence, growth and profitability.

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

How to move from a strategy to business development using market intelligence?

Business development is what comes next in line from current awareness and strategic planning. It is basically the moment when a company says: “Let’s do it!” One would almost assume that all necessary research for this execution of the strategic plan has already been done and that now it’s just a matter pushing ahead come hell or high water. In reality Market Intelligence remains important in this phase too!

If we recap quickly we have seen that without market intelligence there can be no current awareness. Then we have seen that this current awareness can be expanded upon by applying further market intelligence to create well-founded scenarios and predictions. Only with those scenarios and predictions at hand strategic planning starts to make sense. In this blog post we will look at the next phase when the strategic plan needs to be decided upon and get executed.

Let’s look at an example. Currently, the terminal world experiences a shift towards sustainable fuel sources. Many terminal operators want to get clout in new fuels such as hydrogen (at minus 250 degrees Celsius), ammonia (transporting hydrogen chemically bound to nitrogen at temperatures and pressures comparable to LPG), and also SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). Lastly there is a growing demand for LNG due to the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical factors. Current awareness means to at least be aware of these trends and having current data at hand. Strategy means having a plan on how to capitalize on these trends under various scenarios. Business development then, is the stage where a desired position in these fuel supply chains is going to be built up.

In this new phase a good and constant intelligence flow remains critical for success. Market intelligence will now provide detailed knowledge and information about which concrete players would need what amounts of storage capacity. There can be absolutely no surprises regarding rules and regulations for these new fuels. Price movements need to be current at all times. These factors will then be taken into consideration when constructing of new tanks, jetties or pipelines. As in any construction project, these stages are feasibility study, design, licensing and permits and (preliminary) contract negotiations.

Investments in terminals are huge and therefore go hand in hand with long term contracts. Time spans of such contracts are usually between 5 and 15 years. So obviously most terminals and installations will not be built without a signed contract to cover a part of the lifespan of the asset. However, it is rarely the case that a client will be prepared to sign a deal for the whole lifespan of an asset. So there will always be a risk associated with such a project and market intelligence will enable you to estimate this risk and factor that into your decision. If the risk is acceptable you can go ahead, if too large then either you walk away from the deal or try to negotiate better terms. We can conclude that Market Intelligence continues to play a large role all the way into the  business development phase.

And as we will see in another blog post it remains important up until the final stage of the asset’s lifecycle: the operational phase. In this phase the objective is to get a good return on investment by attracting and retaining valuable customers that pay premium rates for your terminal. With excellent market intelligence for marketing, sales and account management you can achieve these results.

Gut feeling or a strategy aligned with market intelligence?

We don’t deny it: some entrepreneurs keep getting lucky just basing their decisions on gut feeling. At the same time we claim that even these entrepreneurs and their companies would fare even better if they had ongoing smart and structured intelligence gathering about all aspects of their market. Let’s take a look why market intelligence is an equally vital support activity within a company just as IT, human resource management or accounting are.

Tank terminals are capital goods. Strategic decisions in the terminal business often result in investments worth millions of dollars. And these investments determine to a large extent the capabilities of a terminal for years to come. So obviously any reduction of long-term investment risk is welcome. Market intelligence, the systematic gathering and analysis of information about all things concerning your current and future business, is the way to do this.

The important of current awareness before strategy

In a first blog on current awareness we have explained that a company simply must have sufficient understanding of what’s currently happening in your industry. What are clients looking for? What are competitors doing? Which tech trends influence the market? How is the pricing of services changing? Which mergers and acquisitions are taking place? Is there news on the regulation front in any of the relevant geographic areas? Are there important changes in the political landscape?

The current awareness can be structured using a PEST-factor (macro-level: political, economic, societal, technological) analysis, competitive environment (industry-level: customers and competitors) analysis and SWOT (segment-level: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

The next stage should offer a clear view on various realistic future scenarios for industry and market developments. Most often there is one strong trend dominating the market, but it would be foolish to always just follow the pack jumping on such a new trend. If you come in early it could prove demand is not yet as predicted. If you come in late you can’t win either.

Market intelligence allows a business to stand on its own two feet and make specific decisions independently. Better decisions. Quicker decisions. Better timing. The right partners. That’s what makes the difference!

The consequences of strategic decisions and what to do with them

A helpful way to analyse consequences of strategic decisions is to always consciously run through three scenarios:

  • worst case
  • most likely
  • best case

If your market intelligence is capable of providing this kind of “three-stage” realistic prognosis for each possible expansion or change of a terminal operation, then it is also likely that the management will be able to recalibrate the long-term corporate strategy and pick the best choices. The fact that various levels of management are involved in the information gathering, also ensures that strategic decisions are well supported by the whole organisation.           

In the end what counts is to move away from the intuitive and short-term approach towards a systematically organized long-term form of Market Intelligence (MI) preferably with concrete roles for key staff members and with a proper embedding in the company culture.

The handbook of Market Intelligence (2009) offers a good example of world-class market intelligence as it relates to strategy:

“We are future-oriented in our approach and frequently use scenario analysis in combination with forecasting as methods to understand the future dynamics of our industry. One example is that we have a project focusing on as far as the year 2050. We have an intelligence network in place and are producing deliverables that have been tied into our strategic and operational business processes.”

In the end, world-class companies have proven that ongoing smart and structured intelligence gathering about all aspects of their market will enhance profitability and reduce risk. In the highly fragmented tank terminal business, servicing an ever-changing liquid bulk market, it is not possible to survive without a clear strategy. Market Intelligence (MI) ensures that this strategy is well founded and recalibrated frequently. In this way it is a vital internal support function.

Whitepaper: Market Intelligence for Tank Terminal Operators Explained

How good is your current awareness of market trends?

Current awareness is the starting point of good market intelligence for any company operating in a competitive market. Entrepreneurs often make intuitive decisions, but when they are supported by hard facts and good data entrepreneurial risk taking is no longer a game of roulette but the smart and successful way to take calculated risks.

Current awareness is the starting point of good market intelligence for any company operating in a competitive market. Entrepreneurs often make intuitive decisions, but when they are supported by hard facts and good data entrepreneurial risk taking is no longer a game of roulette but the smart and successful way to take calculated risks.

What do we mean by “current awareness”? Well, it simply means that as a company you have sufficient understanding of what’s happening in the terminal industry and the wider economy at this moment.

What are clients looking for? What are competitors doing? Which tech trends influence the market? How is the pricing of services changing? Which mergers and acquisitions are taking place? Is there news on the regulation front in any of the relevant geographic areas? Are there important changes in the political landscape?

Structure “current awareness” within your organization

In order to do this right “current awareness” shouldn’t remain a vague undefined asset floating around somewhere somehow in the organization, but it should be systematically structured to make sure that your organization is always up-to-date on what is happening in the terminal market and – importantly – where your company stands relative to that. Gathered information should be easily accessible to support each employee in their work and decision making.  

Setting this up could involve these measures:

  • allocating some work hours of certain employees to spend on research activities
  • structuring how employees write-up, report and store their findings
  • creating an internal market intelligence network connecting all management levels
  • subscribing to relevant periodical news sources
  • outsourcing part of the intelligence work to an external market researcher

In the end this should lead to a situation where each manager feels supported by the best possible information. A well-informed manager who enters a (price) negotiation for instance will always fare better than a manager who comes across as uninformed. A director or management team eyeing a take-over will not just make a better decision, but they will make it faster, before the competition snatches it away. Research has proven that companies with good systemic market intelligence outperform the competition on all levels.

An example of a market trend that requires current awareness

So can we give an example of a market trend in the terminal industry, that requires good current awareness to understand it fully, to anticipate well and to position your company accordingly?

The energy transition is definitely a good example. Oil and gas are no longer the prime areas of investment. Alternative fuels are being developed and are growing in market share. One product in particular is looking for terminal space across the world and that is ammonia. This liquid bulk substance has two uses:

1: Acting as an intermediary carrier of hydrogen that’s produced in sunny parts of the globe and that needs to be transported to areas with less sun but high energy demand. So hydrogen is chemically bound in ammonia and shipped around the world and in destination countries it is decomposed again to free the pure sustainable hydrogen fuel source.

2: Acting directly as an alternative sustainable fuel for ships and tankers currently burning dirty marine fuel oil as their fuel source.

Both applications have different implications for required terminal space in ports around the globe. This trend will lead to substantially less investment in oil and gas terminals and high interest in tanks that can hold ammonia.

It also warrants a reorientation of the commercial acquisition process: you may want to get acquainted with a new group of potential customers who are entering this market. And if you talk to them you will want to come across as knowledgeable. So if your company at the moment has no detailed information on ammonia requirements, then you may want to invest time to get this knowledge.

An important aspect of current awareness is also the ability to think in scenarios and structure your information gathering accordingly.

Let’s take the above example of ammonia. You would not want to forget about oil and gas completely of course. You would want to continue to gather information about all product groups and customers that use them. You might however assign the task of following these trends to different people inside your organization and maybe ask an external consultant to write up a report about an area that you are currently less aware of. In this way your knowledge base for whatever may happen in the market grows in all dimensions.

Thinking in possible scenarios as a model for your current awareness, then leads over to the next important application of market intelligence: strategy. In a subsequent blog post we will delve into that and learn how market intelligence will support laying out a strategy and wisely choosing how to devote your company’s resources to it.   

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