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Low Water Levels Are Reshaping Barge Logistics in Europe

River-based logistics are facing a critical disruption across Europe. Inland barge transport, long considered a cost-effective and environmentally friendly mode of moving liquid bulk cargo, is being tested by the increasing occurrence of low water levels.

Traditionally, water levels fluctuate within manageable seasonal cycles. However, due to changing weather patterns and reduced rainfall in key regions, we are now observing sustained periods of low water. These conditions reduce the draft available for barges, effectively limiting their capacity and increasing the number of trips needed to move the same volume of product.

This shift has created a ripple effect across terminal operations. More barges on the water mean longer wait times, increased congestion at port entry points, and tighter scheduling demands for loading and unloading windows. From a cost perspective, efficiency drops while operational complexity rises. Additionally, the environmental promise of barge transport diminishes if more vessels are needed to complete the same job.

Terminal operators, shippers, and logistics providers must now reevaluate route planning, fleet management, and inventory cycles. Contingency planning becomes critical. Investments in data-driven water level monitoring, flexible routing, and modal diversification (e.g., shifting to rail or pipeline where possible) could become competitive differentiators.

What was once a stable and reliable mode of transport now requires active management and risk mitigation. Climate variability is no longer just a weather issue—it’s a logistics issue.

Are your inland logistics and terminal assets ready to handle prolonged water-related disruptions?

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

Click here to schedule your demo and get access to BargeINSIGHTS for free!

Are Europe’s Refineries Losing the Global Race?

Europe’s refining sector is under significant strain. With margins being compressed by rising operational costs and declining demand, European refiners are finding it increasingly difficult to compete with newer, more efficient facilities in other parts of the world.

Regions like the United States, India, and the Middle East benefit from cheaper crude feedstock, lower energy prices, and newer infrastructure. This allows them to weather market volatility and absorb price shocks more effectively than their European counterparts. In contrast, many European refineries operate on legacy infrastructure with higher energy and compliance costs, and reduced flexibility in processing varied crude slates.

Adding to the pressure, massive new refineries have come online in the last two years in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, and West Africa. These facilities boast higher complexity, modern configurations, and large production capacities. Their scale and integration enable superior cost-efficiency and product yields compared to aging European plants.

Take Shell Pernis, for example — Europe’s largest refinery. Despite its size and history, it now faces stiff competition from newer facilities that can operate at a fraction of the cost with superior output flexibility. This changing landscape threatens to erode Europe’s historical position as a refining powerhouse.

Strategic Implications: European refiners must rethink their business models. Options include investing in modernization, pivoting toward specialty products and biofuels, or transitioning assets toward import/export and storage hubs. Collaborating with terminals and traders could open up new value streams in the logistics ecosystem.

The refining map is being redrawn. If Europe doesn’t adapt, it risks losing more than margin — it could lose its relevance in the global energy equation.

Now is the time to assess competitiveness and define a long-term strategic pathway for your refining assets.

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

Click here to schedule your demo and get access to BargeINSIGHTS for free!

Europe’s Fuel Demand Is on the Decline — What Comes Next?

Northern Europe is experiencing a steady decline in diesel demand, with reductions of 1–3% annually. While gasoline demand has remained relatively stable, it too is projected to decline as electrification and environmental regulations reshape transportation and energy use.

Several interlinked factors are contributing to this structural shift. First, the rapid electrification of vehicle fleets across the continent is a major driver. Countries in Northeast Europe are particularly aggressive in phasing out internal combustion engines in favor of electric vehicles (EVs), spurred on by generous subsidies and evolving infrastructure. Secondly, stringent EU emissions targets are making fossil fuels less viable, with penalties for exceeding carbon thresholds and incentives for cleaner alternatives.

These changes directly impact stakeholders across the liquid bulk supply chain. Terminal operators and distributors must reconsider long-term storage and blending strategies. If diesel and gasoline volumes drop steadily, the throughput models on which many tank farms were built will need to be recalibrated. At the same time, refiners must adapt their product slates to align with shifting demand profiles, and possibly integrate biofuels or e-fuels into their operations.

Moreover, these trends introduce uncertainty in fuel pricing, infrastructure investments, and asset utilization. Storage economics may shift, making some assets less viable while increasing demand for more versatile or modular infrastructure. Logistics providers and port authorities will also need to align with evolving modal mixes and regulatory frameworks.

Looking ahead, the declining demand for traditional fuels may create new opportunities in alternative energy storage and distribution. Terminals that embrace this transition early could become regional leaders in hydrogen, ammonia, or battery storage infrastructure.

This isn’t merely a fluctuation—it’s a long-term transformation. Companies that act now to future-proof their operations will be best positioned for profitability and relevance in a decarbonized Europe.

Is your organization prepared for a fuel mix dominated by low-carbon alternatives? Now is the time to assess your asset strategy and market positioning.

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

Click here to schedule your demo and get access to BargeINSIGHTS for free!

Rhine Freight Market: Stable River, Static Rates — Freight Cools as Inventories Rise

The Rhine barge freight market closed out June with a sense of equilibrium. While earlier in the week saw some modest price corrections upward—driven by limited barge availability and concerns over falling water levels—the market soon shifted into a state of stasis. By July 1, rates across all destinations had flattened, underscoring a broader sentiment of supply abundance, weak demand, and cautious forward planning.

1. Freight Rates: Short Burst, Then a Plateau

At the start of the period (June 25–26), freight rates climbed across key routes, with noticeable increases for Upper Rhine destinations:

  • Basel rose more than 5% on June 25 and remained high until flattening on June 27.

  • Strasbourg, Karlsruhe, and Frankfurt followed suit with upward adjustments of 1–2 €/ton as traders moved early to secure intakes before expected draft reductions.

However, from June 27 through July 1, no rate changes were registered. This stalling trend reflects a market that had pre-emptively adjusted and then cooled rapidly as fundamentals reasserted themselves.

Takeaway: A short-lived rally in late June faded quickly, and freight rates now appear anchored by logistical capacity and stock-driven demand suppression.

2. Rhine Water Levels: Low but Stable

Hydrological conditions hovered near operational thresholds but did not drop low enough to cause immediate constraints:

  • Kaub and Maxau maintained stable readings (Kaub around 104–113 cm, Maxau steady at 405–410 cm), providing relative predictability in barge intake volumes.

  • These levels allowed for consistent—but limited—intakes, supporting stable rate dynamics without introducing significant volatility.

Takeaway: Forecasted declines in water levels did not materialize sharply enough to drive further upward pressure on freight.

3. Spot Market Activity: From Active to Anemic

The beginning of the week was marked by high deal counts:

  • On June 25, a total of 14 deals/offers were registered, marking one of the busiest days in recent weeks.

  • By June 27, this dropped to just 3 deals, and by July 1, only 6 were recorded—with little urgency from charterers.

This decline reflects front-loaded planning around end-of-month logistics and a broader lack of market excitement due to high inland stock levels.

Takeaway: June ended with a rush, July began with a whisper. Barges are available, but cargoes are not.

4. Demand Remains Muted Amid Stock and Structure Pressures

Multiple daily reports cited the same underlying factors:

  • Inland depots are well-stocked, reducing the need for fresh imports from ARA terminals.

  • Ongoing backwardation in gasoil continues to discourage speculative stocking and long-haul barge bookings.

  • While product availability was high, some freighters even reported idle barges over the weekend, pointing to a mismatch between fleet and flow.

Takeaway: Freight rates aren’t falling due to poor infrastructure—but because economic rationale to move product is currently lacking.

5. Outlook: Calm Waters, Light Loads

Looking ahead, the Rhine barge market appears poised to maintain its current holding pattern:

  • Water levels are forecasted to stay near current thresholds into early July.

  • Unless product price structures shift or refinery output changes, there is no immediate catalyst for stronger spot demand.

  • Rate volatility is likely to remain low and localized, driven by individual load specs rather than macro trends.

Takeaway: All signs point to continued calm unless a demand-side surprise emerges.

Conclusion: Strategic Stillness in a Season of Stability

The Rhine barge freight market has entered a phase of operational normalcy and strategic stillness. With stable river conditions and soft spot demand, the freight environment is less about chasing margin and more about maintaining presence. Barge operators, traders, and planners are advised to stay flexible—but not expect fireworks in early July.

ARA Barge Market Update: Demand Hesitation and Logistics Friction Shape a Disjointed Freight Landscape

The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge freight market closed out June with a week of contrasts. While freight rates slipped early, they ultimately stabilized amid low volumes and persistent terminal congestion. Spot market participation was inconsistent, shaped by cautious buying sentiment, operational bottlenecks, and broader macro uncertainty.

1. Freight Rates: Declining Midweek, Stabilizing Into July

From 25 to 27 June, freight rates across most routes experienced slight to moderate reductions, driven by weak barge demand and excess vessel availability:

  • Cross Harbor, Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam, and Ghent routes all recorded declines between €0.07–€0.10/ton, particularly for middle distillates.

  • By June 30 and July 1, rates flattened across nearly all corridors, suggesting a new, lower equilibrium had been reached.

  • Notably, light ends held up more robustly than middle distillates, with fewer deals and less price pressure observed.

Takeaway: Market pricing softened briefly but found stability, particularly as freighters began rebalancing barge availability across regional routes.

2. Spot Volume: Weak and Wavering

Daily spot volumes oscillated without strong directional cues:

  • Highest volume was seen on 26 June (59.7 kton), but this quickly tapered off to 44.2 kton by 30 June and just 35.2 kton by 1 July.

  • Activity was driven more by logistical necessity than new cargo flows; end-of-month bookings showed minimal urgency, and freighters reported idle barges as a result.

Takeaway: Underlying demand remains low, with players booking only what they must—not what they might.

3. Product Dynamics: Distillates Dip, Light Ends Hold

Midweek saw an uptick in middle distillate freight bookings, temporarily closing the price gap between product types. But by the end of the week:

  • Light ends resumed dominance in volume terms, while distillate prices softened again amid a pullback in interest.

  • The price spread between the two categories widened again, with little indication of near-term convergence.

Takeaway: The product demand seesaw continues, with light ends showing more resilience than distillates.

4. Terminal Congestion and Planning Constraints

Despite soft fundamentals, freight prices did not collapse—a direct result of ongoing terminal delays and limited berth access:

  • Freighters continued to plan around barge delays in Amsterdam and Antwerp, complicating voyage scheduling and extending turnaround times.

  • As Rhine water levels dropped, some barges were diverted inland, reducing local ARA capacity and preventing a full oversupply scenario.

Takeaway: Terminal bottlenecks are still the key factor preventing steeper price declines.

5. Market Outlook: Stability, But Not Strength

As we enter July, the ARA freight market appears to be in a holding pattern:

  • Demand remains subdued, but a floor has formed due to logistics friction and fleet adjustments.

  • Traders are operating with a “minimal commitment” mindset, while waiting for stronger macro cues—either in product pricing, Rhine dynamics, or refinery runs.

Takeaway: The current market is steady but fragile. Without new product flow incentives, meaningful recovery in freight demand looks unlikely in the short term.

Conclusion: A Market Balanced by Constraints, Not Confidence

The ARA CPP barge freight market continues to operate under tight logistical conditions and looser commercial interest. Spot prices have stabilized, but more from lack of activity than from any renewed confidence. In this environment, flexibility in operations and strong terminal coordination are the best levers freight professionals can pull.

ARA Freight Market: Lower Volumes, Diverging Rates, and Planning Puzzles

The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market during mid-June presented a complex mix of price corrections, patchy demand, and lingering terminal delays. Freight rates drifted lower for most routes while sporadic market spikes highlighted the tension between regional supply chain inertia and global product volatility.

1. Freight Rates: Declining Across the Board

Freight rates generally edged downward throughout the week, especially for middle distillates:

  • From June 11 to June 18, the Cross Harbor and Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam corridors saw a clear trend of declining rates, driven by weaker spot demand and increased barge availability.

  • Light ends remained relatively stable midweek but saw a softening by June 18, with most routes shedding a few percentage points.

Takeaway: Overall, the market’s rate floor dipped slightly, with the pace of decline moderated by ongoing operational delays that capped oversupply.

2. Demand: Hesitant and Product-Dependent

Spot market activity was choppy:

  • Early in the week (June 11–12), light ends dominated volumes, with middle distillates lagging behind amid low interest and cautious positioning ahead of ICE gasoil expiry.

  • Post-ICE expiry, on June 13–17, middle distillate volumes surged briefly, supported by fresh fixtures to cover immediate product needs and manage fleet utilization.

  • By June 18, total spot volume dropped back to under 35kton—one of the lowest counts of the month.

Takeaway: Product flow shifted daily, but the structural signal is clear: traders are reluctant to lock in volume amid volatile global prices and uncertain profit margins.

3. Operational Strain: Terminals Still a Bottleneck

Delays at terminals in Amsterdam and Antwerp persisted, influencing daily planning:

  • Barges were often forced into waiting lists, limiting flexibility despite weaker demand.

  • Some players used PJK B/L or lump sum arrangements to maintain optionality and hedge against short-term rate swings.

Takeaway: Infrastructure delays continued to mute the full impact of lower demand on rates—without them, rate drops could have been steeper.

4. Macro Shadows: Geopolitical Volatility Adds Risk Premium

The broader oil market backdrop—marked by renewed tensions between Israel and Iran—sparked extreme product price volatility during the week:

  • Several reports noted that this kept some players sidelined, postponing deals or splitting voyages to limit exposure.

  • Rising product prices in Europe attracted additional cargoes, temporarily lifting local supply and stabilizing rates for specific middle distillate routes.

Takeaway: Geopolitical risks indirectly supported ARA freight floors but did not reverse the softening trend.

5. Market Outlook: Wait-and-See Continues

By the end of the week, the market had settled into an equilibrium of:

  • Lower spot rates, especially for Cross Harbor and intra-port moves.

  • Patchy deal flow, driven by product-specific arbitrage and fleet management needs.

  • Cautious planning, with many players preferring to wait for clearer signals on refinery throughput and product spreads.

Takeaway: The current tone suggests that unless terminals clear faster or product prices swing dramatically, the ARA market will remain subdued, with only tactical spikes.

Conclusion: A Market in Drift, Not in Drive

The mid-June ARA barge freight market illustrates the complexity of a region balancing low structural demand, high operational friction, and external price shocks. For logistics planners and traders, this calls for an agile strategy—balancing near-term fleet positioning with the readiness to capture any sudden price-driven cargo surges.

Rhine Barging Trends: Low Demand Meets High Water in a Softening Market

As May turned into June, the Rhine barge freight market continued its gradual correction, with rates falling across nearly all destinations. Backwardation remained a firm ceiling on freight appetite, while a steady rise in Rhine water levels unlocked higher intakes—further pressuring prices. Over these six trading days, freight market activity remained tepid, even as logistical conditions became more favorable.

1. Freight Rates Slide to Multi-Month Lows

Across the Upper and Middle Rhine, freight rates saw consistent daily declines, culminating in a significant markdown by June 4:

From May 30 to June 4, rates fell steadily across key destinations like Frankfurt, Karlsruhe, Strasbourg, and Basel

Notably, Basel dropped by over 30% across the period—reflecting the compounded effect of higher load intakes and continued weak demand.

By June 4, rates across most destinations touched their lowest levels in months, underscoring how much current fundamentals are diverging from earlier spring peaks.

Takeaway: We are seeing a full recalibration of the Rhine barge market, with rates adjusting to a “new normal” of high-capacity transport amid limited market urgency.

2. Water Levels Support Bigger Volumes, But Not More Demand

One of the defining features of this week was the remarkable rise in river water levels:

  • Maxau crossed the 550 cm mark by June 4, while Kaub surged to 256 cm—depths not seen since February.

  • These water levels allowed barge operators to offer significantly larger intakes—up to 2500 tons per trip for Upper Rhine routes.

This logistical tailwind made freight cheaper per ton, as fewer trips were required and vessel efficiency improved. However, this didn’t translate into a demand spike.

Takeaway: Physical infrastructure supported higher volumes—but economic rationale didn’t support higher throughput.

3. Backwardation and Economic Uncertainty Dampen Spot Activity

The market remained shackled by the prevailing backwardation in product prices, limiting speculative buying and inventory buildup.

  • Traders continued to work on a back-to-back model, avoiding forward-loading unless prompted by contractual needs.

  • Importers were largely unmotivated to secure large volumes, even at discounted freight rates.

Freight operators reported more available tonnage than takers, especially upstream, despite the improved navigability of the Rhine.

Takeaway: In an environment where economics trump efficiency, better loading conditions don’t equate to more fixtures.

4. Low Trading Volumes and Selective Participation

Trading activity remained subdued throughout the week, with very few days exceeding double-digit spot deals:

  • Only 4 deals were logged on June 3, which is traditionally one of the more active days.

  • Even on days with slightly higher fixture counts (e.g., May 30 and June 2), most players were cautious and waiting for more signals before engaging further.

Some deals were closed at PJK B/L dates, reflecting the preference for fixed operational planning over speculative trade.

Takeaway: A wait-and-see attitude dominated, with participants favoring clarity and structure over opportunistic scheduling.

5. External Disruptions Add Complexity, Not Urgency

While not dominant factors, the week saw a few operational disruptions worth noting:

  • A collision on the Dortmund-Ems Canal raised concerns about shipping delays near BP Lingen.

  • An outage at BP Rotterdam’s CDU unit added to regional uncertainty in product flows.

However, these incidents did not lead to a meaningful uptick in barge demand, further highlighting how muted sentiment remains.

Takeaway: Disruptions are currently background noise rather than demand drivers in the barge market.

Conclusion: A River Running Smooth, But Quiet

The Rhine barge freight market has entered a phase of logistical efficiency but commercial restraint. Improved water levels are making transport easier—but not necessarily busier. Rates are falling, but not from lack of infrastructure—rather, from a lack of incentive.

For barge operators, traders, and logistics planners, the message is clear: monitor the fundamentals closely, but be prepared to respond quickly when either economic sentiment or product dynamics start to shift. Until then, the story is one of still waters—and slowly sinking rates.

ARA Freight Trends: Stable Surface, Structural Strain – A Market Caught Between Planning and Pressure

As May turned to June, the ARA barge freight market held its footing in a week that reflected both resilience and inertia. Amid moderate volumes, rates remained largely unchanged or declined slightly, particularly for middle distillates. However, behind the calm veneer, terminal delays, operational bottlenecks, and cautious forward planning continued to weigh heavily on fresh market engagement.

1. Freight Rates Drift with Minimal Adjustments

Across the reporting period, most freight rates remained flat or exhibited minor declines, depending on route and product:

  • Cross Harbor rates were among the few to experience light day-on-day erosion—from approximately €5.03/ton on May 30 to €4.85/ton by June 4.

  • Rates for Antwerp–Amsterdam and Ghent–Rotterdam also edged lower, with changes more pronounced for middle distillates than for light ends.

  • Notably, light ends rates remained exceptionally stable, with negligible changes throughout the week.

Takeaway: The market absorbed operational frictions without dramatic repricing, but subtle pressure on distillate rates hints at shifting product dynamics.

2. Terminal Delays and Infrastructure Headwinds Persist

A constant theme throughout the week was the continued strain on terminal logistics:

  • Reports indicated waiting times of up to three weeks at key hubs in Amsterdam and Antwerp, which constrained barge turnover and limited loading availability.

  • Even with this imbalance, pricing remained soft, as demand failed to match potential capacity utilization.

  • These delays led to a growing reliance on PJK B/L and lump sum basis deals, reducing transparency in rate discovery and impeding liquidity.

Takeaway: Freight economics remain subdued, not due to barge shortages, but because of persistent infrastructure drag and operational unpredictability.

3. Spot Volume Fluctuations Reflect Planning Over Pacing

Daily spot volumes oscillated, ranging from 46.4kton to 59.5kton, with the highest activity recorded on June 3.

  • May 30 and June 3 stood out for having the strongest transactional days, but this momentum was largely driven by clearing prior negotiations rather than new spikes in demand.

  • The first week of June also marked a shift toward forward bookings for the Pentecost weekend, with several players focusing on June deliveries rather than prompt execution.

Takeaway: Behind relatively healthy volumes lies a more conservative strategy: participants are pacing activity and reducing exposure, rather than ramping up flows.

4. Demand Remains Tepid Across Products

Even with active days, true spot demand was lackluster:

  • Reports highlighted a lack of urgency in product movements, especially in gasoline components and middle distillates.

  • Refinery disruptions—such as CDU outages at BP Rotterdam—added background tension but failed to materially lift barge demand.

Takeaway: Product availability is not the limiting factor—demand hesitancy and macroeconomic caution are holding the reins.

5. The Pricing Mix Shows Convergence

By the end of the week, the freight rate gap between different routes and products narrowed further:

  • Cross Harbor and Ghent–Amsterdam rates moved into closer proximity, suggesting margin compression across the region.

  • Meanwhile, deals often closed within tight bands (e.g., €6.60–€6.80 on Antwerp/Amsterdam routes), reinforcing the sense of a functionally flat market.

Takeaway: With rate spreads narrowing, arbitrage opportunities are becoming less attractive, reinforcing the conservative stance of most traders.

Conclusion: A Market in Standby Mode

This week’s ARA freight market has operated under a cloak of normalcy, yet the structural frictions remain unresolved. Terminal congestion, sluggish product demand, and a lack of pricing volatility all contribute to a freight environment that’s functioning, but far from flourishing.

Looking ahead, market participants will be watching for:

  • Terminal decongestion as a potential unlock for more agile freighting.

  • Post-Pentecost rebalancing, which may stimulate fresh spot demand.

  • Refinery operations and how outages or restarts shift the load mix.

Until then, the ARA barge market remains a case study in tactical patience and cautious logistics.

Contango on the Horizon? Navigating the Turning Tide in Oil Storage Economics

By Lars van Wageningen, Research & Consultancy Manager

May 2025 was marked by significant volatility in global oil markets, with Brent crude prices flirting with multi-year lows, forward curves flattening into contango, and trade flow disruptions affecting key hubs. While backwardation still defines the prompt structure, a deeper contango emerges beyond Q4 2025—a signal of shifting market fundamentals. For tank terminal operators, this environment demands strategic recalibration toward future storage plays, flexible infrastructure, and adaptive commercial models.

1. Price Weakness and Forward Curve Flattening

Brent crude hovered between $62.13 and $64.53/bbl throughout May, pressured by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, OPEC+ supply increases, and a fragile macroeconomic outlook. On May 2, Brent dropped below $60/bbl, the lowest in four years, before modest rebounds later in the month.

Key trend: While spot prices stayed depressed, forward spreads gradually narrowed, and by mid May, Brent calendar spreads showed contango developing from 2026 onwards

Strategic takeaway: Terminal professionals should prepare for a shift from prompt-driven demand to future-oriented storage inquiries. This is a critical time to reassess contract structures and evaluate potential tank reconfiguration to align with longer-dated storage demand.

2. Storage Economics Still Underwater—But Signs of a Turn

Despite forward-looking contango, break-even storage rates remained negative across all products in May, especially gasoline and gasoil:

  • RBOB M1-M6: ranged from -€9.33 to -€10.07

  • Gasoil M1-M6: ranged from -€3.09 to -€3.52

  • Jet kerosene M1-M6: consistently around -€3.70 to -€3.91

The charts on page 3 across all reports confirm persistently unprofitable contango storage throughout May, despite some improvement in longer-term spreads.

Strategic takeaway: Tank terminals should remain focused on throughput services while preparing operationally for a potential contango play in 2026. Scenario planning for price curve shifts is no longer optional—it is essential.

3. Product Cracks Reveal Divergent Market Dynamics

Product crack spreads throughout May were a mixed bag:

  • Gasoline and HSFO saw support from tighting of the market due to export opportunities (gasoline) and and slowdown in imports (HSFO).

  • Middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel showed bearish tendencies as imports into Europe increased, but this can get under pressure due to a closed arb and slowdown in imports for June.

  • Cracking margins hovered between $8.03 and $11.62/bbl, with hydroskimming margins remaining negative throughout

According to page 9 commentary in the May 16 and May 30 reports, light ends benefitted from ARA exports to the US and Africa, while middle distillates suffered from inventory overhangs and closed arbs from Asia.

Strategic takeaway: As margins vary across the barrel, tank terminals must enhance product flexibility—supporting blending, switching, and short-term repurposing between distillates and gasoline pools.

4. Emerging Trade Flow Shifts and Demand Signals

May trade flow insights reveal significant structural adjustments:

  • Fuel oil: Increased regional demand for ULSFO in the Med and summer power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt supported prices, yet arbs to Asia remained shut due to high transport costs and saturated markets.

  • Middle distillates: US distillate stocks rebounded but remain low, closing some export opportunities to Europe, while demand up the Rhine remained steady. Europe continued importing from Middle East and India to compensate for local refinery outages.

  • Gasoline: Export routes from ARA to North America and West Africa remained active, although at lower levels compared to previous years. Stocks in ARA dropped in early May but rebounded due to incoming cargoes and refining restarts.

Strategic takeaway: Trade imbalances are increasingly regional and seasonal, making it vital for tank terminals to adopt flexible scheduling and logistics management systems to match product flow shifts.

5. Market Sentiment Turning, but Not Yet Translated to Tank Economics

Forward curve outlooks across May consistently echoed a growing belief in storage demand growth from 2026. Spot backwardation remained intact but eroded slightly week-over-week.

  • The May 30 outlook noted the market was absorbing a 2.2mbpd surplus for now, but anticipated stock builds may trigger deeper contango later.

  • Calendar Spread Options (CSOs) for WTI crude Nov/Dec 2025 surged to $1.60–$2.00/cbm, reflecting early hedging and speculative positioning.

Strategic takeaway: Commercial teams at tank terminals must start engaging counterparties today for forward storage deals, especially with counterparties active in the CSO and futures market.

Conclusion: Ready for the Pivot

While the storage economics of May 2025 remain unfavorable, contango is creeping back—not yet at the front end, but visibly on the horizon. For tank terminals, this is the moment to:

  • Invest in future-proofing infrastructure

  • Increase contractual agility

  • Prioritize data-driven positioning strategies

The market is poised to pivot. Terminals that act on early signals—rather than waiting for headlines—will own the advantage in the next cycle.

ARA barge market recap: mixed signals and steady freight in a logistically challenging week

By Lars van Wageningen, Research & Consultancy Manager

The past week in the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) barge freight market has been marked by a mix of strategic calm and logistical noise. From May 7 to May 12, Insights Global’s freight reports painted a picture of a market negotiating the dual pressures of terminal delays and diverging product demand, while still maintaining a relatively stable pricing environment.

1. Freight Stability Amid Fluctuating Fundamentals

Across the five days of reporting, ARA freight rates remained remarkably steady. While there were day-to-day rate adjustments on specific routes and products, the overall market tone was one of resilience rather than volatility.

  • Middle distillates experienced minor fluctuations, reflecting shifts in operational execution and barge availability.

  • Light ends, particularly gasoline and naphtha, showed stronger transactional consistency and kept rates buoyant.

Takeaway: The ARA market displayed maturity in its pricing behavior, reacting moderately to operational stressors without succumbing to major swings.

2. Light Ends Dominate Market Activity

The strongest momentum was observed in the light ends segment, with consistent volumes and transactional depth across routes:

  • From midweek onward, light ends consistently outpaced middle distillates in total traded volumes.

  • Finished gasoline and gasoline component shipments formed the backbone of this trend, showing robust demand as the summer season approached.

This demand differential also narrowed the historical spread between light ends and middle distillate freight rates.

Takeaway: ARA barge operators saw more action in gasoline logistics, highlighting the seasonal shift and refinery output alignment.

3. Persistent Logistical Bottlenecks at Terminals

A recurring theme throughout the week was the influence of terminal delays—particularly in Antwerp and Amsterdam—on freight negotiations and barge deployment.

  • Barge operators reported growing difficulties in planning and execution, with extended waiting times hampering day-to-day flexibility.

  • These delays added an invisible layer of cost and complexity, often limiting the number of new fixtures that could be concluded on any given day.

Takeaway: Infrastructure challenges are not only slowing operations but also muting market responsiveness. Freight deals were often shaped more by availability than by appetite.

4. Supply Constraints Cushion Against Demand Dip

Interestingly, while some freighters reported lower incoming requests, this was counterbalanced by limited availability of vessels ready for prompt loading. The result was a functional equilibrium that helped:

  • Maintain upward momentum in middle distillate rates on certain days (notably May 8).

  • Keep light ends rates stable despite an increase in cargo availability and fixture activity.

Takeaway: Even in the face of reduced demand, tight supply dynamics kept rates from softening significantly—underscoring the importance of barge positioning in short-sea logistics.

5. Weekends Bring Volume, Not Volatility

The week closed with a healthy volume of fixtures, particularly in the light ends category. Despite this, the market did not see large price adjustments—indicating that supply and demand are reasonably well-aligned for now.

  • Friday (May 9) and Monday (May 12) were both busy in terms of concluded deals, but neither saw dramatic shifts in price levels.

  • Freight rates on high-traffic corridors like Rotterdam–Antwerp and Ghent–Amsterdam held firm.

Takeaway: The freight market may be bracing for change, but for now, it’s moving with caution and control.

Conclusion: Operational Efficiency Over Opportunism

This past week in the ARA barge market showcased a logistics-driven equilibrium, where freight rates served more as a reflection of operational constraints than speculative price swings. For industry professionals, the key signals to monitor going forward will be:

  • Terminal throughput normalization, which could unlock more flexible freight supply.

  • Seasonal shifts in product demand, especially for motor fuels.

  • How operators balance vessel availability with reliability concerns.

In a climate where logistical execution increasingly determines commercial outcomes, staying close to the market pulse through platforms like Insights Global’s Barge INSIGHTS will be critical for forward planning.