ExxonMobil in talks to divest French refining, retail business Esso

ExxonMobil has started exclusive talks with Canadian fuel retailer North Atlantic over the sale of its stake in its French subsidiary Esso, including its Gravenchon oil refinery, the company announced on May 28.

A statement from ExxonMobil said it is negotiating with North Atlantic France over the acquisition of its entire 82.89% stake in the Esso business and its assets, including the 240,000 b/d refinery it operates in Normandy.

The companies are also discussing the sale of a 100% stake in ExxonMobil Chemical France, the statement said.

Subject to regulatory approval, the deal is expected to close in Q4 2025, after which North Atlantic will file a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares of Esso SAF.

The Esso business is responsible for roughly 20% of the active refining capacity in France through its operation of Gravenchon and separate lubricants plant, according to its estimates.

Across the country, Esso also markets fuel and lubricants through a branded reseller network of around 750 sites.

In a new landing page on its website, North Atlantic set out aims to develop a “green energy hub” at Gravenchon with new low-carbon fuels and renewables projects, adding that the site is well-positioned to serve energy-intensive industries like data centers.

North Atlantic’s retail business in Eastern Canada and French territories Saint Pierre and Miquelon could also offer offtake certainty for the refinery, the company said, supporting strong utilization rates.

French divestments

For ExxonMobil, the Esso deal marks the culmination of a string of French divestments as it has concentrated on its US and Asian assets.

In 2024, the company began significantly downsizing its French downstream business, closing its chemicals operations in Gravenchon and later selling its 140,000 b/d Fos-sur-Mer refinery to a Trafigura-backed joint venture.

Completion of the Esso deal will leave ExxonMobil with just four remaining refinery stakes in Europe: Antwerp, Rotterdam, Fawley, and Germany’s MiRO.

Once a key asset for Exxon, Gravenchon attracted significant investment at the beginning of the decade, boosting yields of high-value products and helping it capture market share when rival Grandpuits stopped operating in 2021.

As France’s second-largest refinery, the site benefits from a direct pipeline connection to Paris airports and export flexibility from the nearby Le Havre terminal.

Nonetheless, the closure of the Gravenchon steam cracker signaled fading appetite from ExxonMobil to continue operating the site long-term, closing off the opportunity to capitalize on stronger petrochemicals integration as fossil fuel demand stalls.

In its statement, ExxonMobil said that the proposed sale aligns with its wider strategy, but stressed that Europe remains an “important region” for the business.

“ExxonMobil has been operating in France for over 120 years, and we plan to maintain a significant commercial presence with the Esso brand,” said Tanya Bryja, senior vice president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions.

Meanwhile North Atlantic CEO Ted Lomond called the acquisition a “pivotal moment” for the Canadian company to establish a European presence for the first time.

“We are eager to consolidate Gravenchon’s role as a vital center of French energy and industry for decades to come and grow North Atlantic into a premier transatlantic energy company,” he said.

European contraction

Analysts have warned that the exodus of IOCs from the European refining sector could precede a structural decline in margins around the turn of the decade.

According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, ExxonMobil has already slashed its European refining capacity by around a third since 2000, mirroring downsizing by competitors such as Shell.

And as European producers eye rising operating costs and stalling oil demand, new global competitors in the Middle East, Latin America and West Africa promise to accelerate another wave of closures. Based on surplus capacity alone, the International Energy Agency sees at least 1 million b/d of European refining capacity at risk of closure by 2030.

After selling its Italian Augusta and Sarpom refineries and closing its 116,000 b/d Slagen site in Norway in 2021, ExxonMobil recently tried and failed to shed its stake in Germany’s largest refinery, MiRO, only to be blocked in court by co-owner Shell.

The exit of established refiners has encouraged smaller energy players and traders to venture into the sector, often with the aim of transforming assets to reduce their emissions.

Experts have warned that only investors with deep pockets, such as major commodity traders, will be equipped to properly fund billion-dollar decarbonization projects. However, Commodity Insights oil analyst Samy Tamarat said the transaction could signal a “potential lifeline” for Gravenchon.

“While the company’s low-carbon fuels ambitions will require significant investment, it will ensure the site has a future in a market where demand for traditional refined oil products is declining,” he said.

The completion of the Esso deal will include conditions to ensure continuous crude oil supply for Gravenchon and lasting purchase agreements for ExxonMobil, the company statement said. The deal valued Esso shares at Eur 149.19 ($168.86) per Esso share, before adjustments for changes in inventory value, cash payouts and other changes.

By Kelly Norways , Spglobal / May 28, 2025

Saudi’s refining boom helps it weather oil price war

 Saudi Arabia has been cranking up oil refining operations to capture strong profit margins, helping the kingdom offset revenue lost from declining crude prices and exports.

The world’s top oil exporter has in recent years invested heavily in expanding and modernizing its refining and petrochemical capacity at home and overseas to meet growing demand for fuel and plastics while also securing outlets for its crude oil.

Saudi Arabia has nine local refineries with a combined capacity of 3.33 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), accounting for roughly 3% of global demand, which are configured to process its domestically produced crude oil. It operates another 4.3 million bpd of refining capacity abroad, including in China, the United States and Malaysia.

The kingdom’s domestic refineries processed 2.94 million bpd in March, the highest-ever volume for that month and only a smidgen below the record high of 2.96 million bpd in April 2024, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI).

The 12% monthly increase in refining crude intake in March was 23% above the 10-year average for the same period. It correlates with a 12% month-on-month drop in Saudi crude exports to 5.75 million bpd in March, according to the data, highlighting the kingdom’s flexibility between directly selling crude to other refiners and refining it itself.

Saudi refinery rates likely declined by around 200,000 bpd in April due to planned plant maintenance, but should remain at elevated levels ahead of peak summer demand season, according to Keshav Lohiya, CEO and founder of analytics firm Oilytics.

Saudi’s refined product exports, which include diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and fuel oil, rose to a record 1.58 million bpd in March, before declining to 1.48 million bpd in April and 1.42 million bpd so far in May, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler, likely reflecting refinery turnaround.

FLEXIBILITY

This integrated strategy offers Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, the country’s national oil company, an effective way to manage oil price volatility as refining margins – the profit made by processing crude oil into transportation fuels and chemicals – typically rise when feedstock prices decline.

By Ron Bousso / May 27, 2025

US crude oil storage demand surges as traders brace for OPEC+ price war

U.S. crude oil storage demand has surged in recent weeks to levels similar to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from storage broker The Tank Tiger, as traders brace for a flood of increased supply in coming months from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.


This month, OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil output hikes for a second consecutive month in June as the group looks to punish over-producing members. OPEC leaders are also contemplating a similar increase in July, and could bring back as much as 2.2 million barrels-per-day (bpd) of supply to the market by November, Reuters reported earlier.
 
A secondary objective of the OPEC+ supply hikes is to win back market share from U.S. producers, who ramped up output to record levels in recent years while the OPEC+ was making deep supply cuts.
 
Brent crude futures slumped last month to a four-year low of $58.40 a barrel on fears the coming surge in OPEC+ supply could coincide with a global economic slowdown stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.
 
Sliding prices sent a signal to traders to store oil until prices recover, especially as the market structure shows a glut of supply forming next year, said Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer at The Tank Tiger.

By: Reuters  / May 22, 2025.

ADNOC Deepens Energy Partnerships with US Companies

 Strategic agreements announced during UAE-US business dialogue with President Trump will potentially enable $60 billion of US investments in UAE energy projects
   – US is top priority market for XRG and the company is set to boost investments across energy value chain focusing on expanding gas, LNG, specialty chemicals and energy infrastructure
   – Enterprise value of UAE energy investments into the US set to reach $440 billion by 2035
   – Agreements include development plan with ExxonMobil to expand the capacity of UAE’s Upper Zakum field, and with Occidental to explore increasing Shah Gas field’s capacity to 1.85 bscfd
   – New unconventional oil exploration concession awarded to US-based EOG, underscoring Abu Dhabi’s position as a trusted investment destination

ADNOC announced multiple agreements with United States (US) energy majors during the United Arab Emirates (UAE)-US business dialogue with US President Donald J. Trump. The agreements will potentially enable $60 billion of US investments in UAE energy projects across the lifespan of the projects.

The agreements include a landmark field development plan with ExxonMobil and INPEX/JODCO to expand the capacity of Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum offshore field through a phased development. ADNOC also signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Occidental to explore increasing the production capacity of Shah Gas field’s capacity to 1.85 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) of natural gas, from 1.45 bscfd, and accelerating the deployment of advanced technologies in the field.

The agreements reinforce the shared commitment of the UAE and US to maintaining global energy security and the stability of energy markets. The enterprise value of UAE energy investments into the US is set to reach $440 billion by 2035, as part of the UAE’s $1.4 trillion investment plan into the country.

H.E. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, said: “The deep-rooted bilateral relationship between the UAE and the US is underpinned by our shared commitment to enabling energy abundance and we are reinforcing this commitment through these agreements with US energy majors. We see significant opportunities for further UAE-US partnerships across the energy-AI nexus and we look forward to working with our American partners to unlock long-term sustainable value and drive socioeconomic progress.”

The US is a top priority market for XRG, ADNOC’s global energy investment company, and the company is set to boost investments across the American energy value chain focusing on expanding gas, LNG, specialty chemicals and energy infrastructure.

Building on its ambitious investment plans for the US, XRG signed a framework agreement with Occidental subsidiary 1PointFive to evaluate a potential investment in a direct air capture (DAC) project in Kleberg County, Texas. The facility would remove up to 500,000 tons of CO₂ per year using commercial-scale DAC technology, with XRG considering a capital commitment of up to one-third of the project’s total development cost.

Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) also granted a new unconventional oil exploration concession to EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), a leading US-based hydrocarbon exploration and production company. The award for Unconventional Onshore Block 3, which covers a 3,609 square kilometer area within the Al Dhafra region of Abu Dhabi, is the first award of its kind to a US company and underlines the attractiveness of Abu Dhabi’s energy sector and its position as a trusted investment destination. ADNOC will oversee and assist with exploration activities in the concession and has the option to join a subsequent production concession.

The phased field development plan for Upper Zakum will leverage AI and industry-leading technologies and the deep expertise and strong partnership between ADNOC, ExxonMobil and INPEX/JODCO to sustainably grow production capacity and help meet rising global demand with industry leading low-carbon intensity barrels. Upper Zakum is part of the Zakum field which is the world’s second largest offshore field.

The plan will upgrade the Upper Zakum’s infrastructure to include AI-enabled remote operations, receive power from the UAE’s clean energy grid to reduce emissions, and enable the use of artificial islands for drilling activities to enhance environmental protection. Upper Zakum field is located 84 kilometers northwest of Abu Dhabi.

Shah Gas field is one of the world’s largest of its kind and is located 180 kilometers southwest of Abu Dhabi. The potential expansion of the facility will provide more gas for domestic industrial growth and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export.

By: Euro-petroleo , 19/05/2025

Commodity Traders are the Market Makers of a New Era

As geopolitical instability, sanctions, and supply chain shocks become commonplace, physical commodity traders have emerged as indispensable agents to maintain the flow of energy, food, and raw materials.

By leveraging political and commercial networks, as well as centuries of collective trading experience, they act as the market’s shock absorbers – responding to disruptions in real time, frictionlessly reallocating supply where it is needed. Fragmented global trade, regional rivalries and resource nationalism have not diminished their relevance. On the contrary, commodity traders are now more important than ever.

Arbitrage is a core function for traders and plays an important market stabilizing role. When volatility occurs through supply glut, shipping bottlenecks, or panic, traders smooth the curves by injecting liquidity, rerouting cargoes or drawing on inventories. If Brent crude drops due to excess North Sea production while American WTI holds firm amid constrained US supply, traders seize the spread and, in doing so, nudge prices closer together. When shipping routes are upended – say, by Houthi missile attacks in the Red Sea or insurance premiums surging around the Strait of Hormuz – savvy operators reroute cargoes, adjust freight bookings and ensure the crude still reaches a willing refinery, albeit at a different margin.

Contango, where future contract prices exceed spot, has become increasingly common amid uncertainty over demand and storage availability. Traders with secure access to storage terminals are well placed to benefit. By purchasing commodities at current deflated rates and selling them forward at a premium, they effectively monetize time. While financially savvy, these strategies also temper price swings that would otherwise send markets into panic. By storing excess supply now, they reduce glut; by releasing it later, they prevent scarcity.

Related: The Case Against Fixing the Grid (Again)

Natural gas markets, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), have showcased this dynamic more vividly than any other. Europe’s scramble to replace Russian pipeline gas in 2022 created arbitrage windows so wide that traders with proper infrastructure reaped windfalls. LNG cargoes enroute to Asia were diverted mid-ocean to European terminals offering triple the price. When prices normalized, contango set in, and traders stored gas for seasonal release. This provided not only commercial benefit but also strategic breathing room for European governments. In one emblematic case, Trafigura signed a multi-billion-dollar agreement to supply German utilities with American LNG, effectively substituting Russia’s Gazprom. While governments passed legislation and held emergency meetings, it was trading desks that delivered energy where it was needed.

Recent Middle East instability, coupled with rising demand for natural gas across Asia, has amplified the premium placed gas market flexibility. Firms with access to deep storage and shipping capacity have found themselves well placed to respond. BGN, a well-known mid-market trader, has grown into a significant player in both LPG and LNG and its operations considerably reduce gas market volatility. It is also eyeing new gas developments in Africa as the continent experiences a gas demand boom thanks to growing economies.

“Across major African economies — South Africa, DRC, Nigeria, and Egypt, for example — there’s a clear and immediate demand for cleaner transition fuels like gas and LPG. As booming populations and rising economies put real pressure on inefficient, polluting biomass, we’re hearing louder and louder calls from Africa’s growing middle class for cleaner and more efficient fuels,” said BGN’s CEO, Rüya Bayegan.

BGN’s sprawling infrastructure footprint – spanning major production and demand hubs – enables it to absorb cargoes during oversupply and release them when and where demand increases. Well-positioned trading firms are positioned not only to reduce global gas disruption impacts, but to profit from their efforts.

The same applies to oil. Whether due to OPEC supply cuts or increases, embargoes or conflict – it is often traders who step in. Redirection of Russian oil following Western sanctions could have sparked a supply crunch. Instead, commodity traders sourced appropriate replacements for Europe. In more precarious environments, traders venture where major oil companies or state firms hesitate.

In metals and minerals, the narrative is similar. As the energy transition gathers pace, critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earths have become strategic commodities. China’s recent curbs on mineral exports exposed the fragility of global supply chains. In response, commodity traders have moved swiftly to source alternatives. Trader Glencore, for instance, has forayed into cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo, operating two cobalt and copper mines that offer Western clients an alternative to Chinese-backed supply. Another example of traders entering territory where government are hesitant to enter. Traders’ agility and willingness to assume political risk ensures that vital inputs for batteries, solar panels, and semiconductors continue to circulate. As the West furthers its strategy to pivot away from Chinese-controlled critical mineral deposits, resource-rich African nations will likely open their doors to transparent and compliant traders and help launch news economic booms. 

Traders thrive in volatility. But in profiting from arbitrage, they prevent far worse outcomes: empty supermarket shelves, blackouts, and soaring petrol and diesel prices. Their gains are the cost of resilience. Traders act without public mandate, but often with great speed and precision. Their absence would expose markets to greater fragility. As long as the world depends on natural resources to prosper, commodity traders will remain the quiet architects of stability in an otherwise unruly system.

By Jose Chalhoub, Oilprice – May 12, 2025

Morgan Stanley Predicts Slump in Big Oil Profits

Earnings at the biggest international oil companies are set to slump later this year and in 2026, threatening the pace of buybacks, as a substantial oil market surplus would weigh on prices.  

Last week Morgan Stanley joined other major investment banks in slashing oil price forecasts amid expectations of a larger market surplus later this year as OPEC+ plans to raise output much more than previously expected.

Morgan Stanley cut its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year, anticipating a bigger glut. The bank revised down its projection of Brent Crude prices to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of this year, down by $5 per barrel from the previous forecast. 

Now the bank expects Brent prices to fall below $60 per barrel by the first half of 2026 due to tariff-driven demand weakness and supply growth from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers, according to a more recent note cited by Reuters. 

Due to the expected weaker prices, Morgan Stanley expects buybacks at Big Oil to be reduced by between 10% and 50%, with net debt at the international majors rising. 

Shell is the top pick of Morgan Stanley among the European majors, while BP was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight”, as its debt ratio leaves it more vulnerable to changing macro conditions. 

TotalEnergies, the French group, could see lower volatility in earnings, due to its higher integration along the value chain, according to Morgan Stanley. 

During the first-quarter earnings, the majors maintained their dividend and shareholder distribution policies as most met or exceeded analyst expectations of first-quarter profits. 

BP and Chevron reduced the pace of their share buybacks for the second quarter, but the others, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies, maintained their guidance on repurchases despite the slump in oil prices at the start of the second quarter. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Due to the expected weaker prices, Morgan Stanley expects buybacks at Big Oil to be reduced by between 10% and 50%, with net debt at the international majors rising. 

Shell is the top pick of Morgan Stanley among the European majors, while BP was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight”, as its debt ratio leaves it more vulnerable to changing macro conditions. 

TotalEnergies, the French group, could see lower volatility in earnings, due to its higher integration along the value chain, according to Morgan Stanley. 

During the first-quarter earnings, the majors maintained their dividend and shareholder distribution policies as most met or exceeded analyst expectations of first-quarter profits. 

BP and Chevron reduced the pace of their share buybacks for the second quarter, but the others, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies, maintained their guidance on repurchases despite the slump in oil prices at the start of the second quarter. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com / May 12, 2025

US House budget bill seeks more than $1.5 billion for Strategic Petroleum Reserve

 A U.S. House committee released a budget proposal that includes more than $1.5 billion to replenish and maintain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and cancels a congressionally mandated sale, following huge sales from the facility in 2022.

The proposal from the House Energy and Commerce Committee released late on Sunday contains $1.32 billion to purchase oil to help replenish the SPR, the world’s largest emergency stockpile of crude, and $218 million for maintenance of the facility.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had estimated in March that it would take $20 billion and years to accomplish U.S. President Donald Trump’s goal of filling the SPR, a move that would help domestic energy producers amid relatively low oil prices. The facility has the capacity to store about 727 million barrels and currently holds about 399 million barrels.

The House committee is controlled by Trump’s fellow Republicans and this move is part of a wider proposal to cut grants and loan financing in former President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act.

Biden, a Democrat, sold a record 180 million barrels from the SPR in 2022 after Russia, a leading oil producer, invaded Ukraine, bringing the reserve down to its lowest level in 40 years.

The House measure, which faces a committee vote on Tuesday, also repeals a congressionally mandated sale of 7 million barrels from the SPR through fiscal year 2027. The Biden administration had worked with Congress to cancel congressionally mandated sales to help keep levels in the SPR from falling.

The Department of Energy also issued a proposal in the Federal Register on Monday that would allow the government to buy oil for the SPR at an indexed price, instead of a fixed price – meaning the actual price of the oil could move higher or lower with the market.

The Biden administration had adopted a fixed-price rule, arguing that it helped in arranging quick purchases for the reserve.

The DOE said in the new proposed rule that fixed-price contracts have “only served to unnecessarily create confusion in the industry.”

By: Reuters / May 12, 2025

Mexico’s Pemex Swings to $2 Billion Loss as Production, Sales Slum

Pemex, Mexico’s heavily indebted state energy company, reported an 11.3% drop in first-quarter production of crude and condensate on Wednesday as falling sales and foreign-exchange losses contributed to a 43.3 billion peso ($2.12 billion) net loss.

In a filing with Mexico’s stock exchange, Pemex, one of Mexico’s largest companies, attributed the production slump to the decline of mature wells and delays in new well completions.

During the first quarter, Pemex and its partners pumped 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensate. The company processed 936,000 bpd in its local refineries, down 5% compared to the year-ago period.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to raise production to 1.8 million bpd, although older fields, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, are being depleted and more recent discoveries have failed to compensate.

On a call with analysts, Pemex’s corporate planning chief, Jorge Alberto Aguilar, said the company was working to reach the 1.8-million-bpd goal by the end of the year and maintain it at that level.

Sheinbaum, who will govern until 2030, has said domestic crude production will ensure Mexico can produce the gasoline it needs and end its dependence on motor-fuel imports.

Production has been falling for several months. Pemex has not been within the government’s production target since March 2024, when it pumped 1.81 million bpd.

A series of contracts for joint ventures with private companies is being prepared to increase pumping, they added, noting that Pemex will have at least a 40% stake.

Revenue during the January-to-March period fell 2.5% to 395.59 billion pesos, mainly due to lower crude oil sales volumes, Pemex said.

Pemex said foreign-exchange losses and rising costs played roles in its swing to a net loss.

In the quarter, its refining unit yielded 305,000 bpd of gasoline and 171,000 bpd of diesel.

PEMEX AIMS TO REDUCE DEBT BALANCE

Pemex said its financial debt for the three-month period totaled $101.1 billion, up from the $97.6 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Already the world’s most indebted energy company, Pemex has received billions of pesos in government support. The company said it received 80 billion pesos in government support in the first quarter.

The funds were mainly used to pay down debt. Pemex said its goal “is to reduce the financial debt balance over the course of the year, resulting in a lower balance at the end of 2025 versus the end of 2024.”

The company said that 136 billion pesos in transfers from the government were approved for amortizations.

Pemex also reported a decline in drilling activity, completing during the first quarter 12 development wells and five exploratory wells, down from 16 and eight wells, respectively, in the same period in 2024.

Executives of the state-owned giant did not mention on Wednesday whether the drop in well drilling levels had any relation to the debts to suppliers, which reached $19.9 billion at the quarter’s close.

In late 2023, local industry groups said Pemex’s ballooning debt to its oil service providers and private oil and gas producers was threatening hydrocarbon production and the survival of companies.

Executives said that Pemex will continue to make payments to suppliers and that it is working with the Finance Ministry to seek ways to manage financial and commercial liabilities.

By: Reuters / May 06, 2025.

California refinery closures panic politicians

California could lose up to 17pc of its refining capacity within a year, triggering major concerns about its tightly supplied and frequently volatile products market.

US independent Valero announced on 16 April that it will shut or repurpose its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco by April 2026. The firm is also evaluating strategic alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. And independent Phillips 66 said in October that it would shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in the fourth quarter of this year.

Valero’s Benicia announcement brought a quick reaction from state officials. Governor Gavin Newsom on 21 April urged regulators at the California Energy Commission (CEC) to work closely with refiners through “high-level, immediate engagement” to make sure Californians have access to transport fuels. He has ordered them to recommend by 1 July any changes to California’s approach that are needed to ensure adequate fuel supply during its energy transition.

The message appears to have hit home. The CEC delayed a vote on new refinery resupply rules to provide time for additional feedback and consultation with stakeholders after the Valero announcement. The CEC also plans to introduce a rule this year for minimum inventory requirements at refineries in the state as well as possible rules on setting a refiner margin cap.

The new rules are part of an effort by Newsom to mitigate fuel price volatility in California, including the signing of two pieces of legislation known as AB X2-1 and SB X1-2. Refiners have been unhappy with the state’s regulatory and enforcement environment for some time. It is “the most stringent and difficult” in North America owing to 20 years of policies pursuing a move away from fossil fuels, Valero chief executive Lane Riggs says.

The long and short of it

Refinery closures are fuelling long and short-term supply concerns in California. The most immediate is an anticipated supply crunch at the end of this summer. Phillips 66’s plan to shut the Los Angeles refinery by October will deal a significant blow to the state’s refining capacity and is likely to occur at a time when Californian gasoline prices are most prone to volatility.

The US west coast is an isolated market, many weeks sailing time from alternative supply sources in east Asia or the US Gulf coast. California’s strict product specifications further limit who can step in when refinery output falls. The state sometimes sees price spikes in late summer and early autumn because the switch from summer gasoline blends leaves local inventories low while in-state refineries adjust to producing winter grades.

California gasoline prices spiked in September 2022 when stocks fell to a nine-year low on the west coast. Spot deliveries hit a record $2.45/USG premium to Nymex Rbob futures in the Los Angeles market at the time (see graph). Production problems at several refineries in southern California led to another spot price surge in September 2023. The California Air Resources Board (Carb) permitted an earlier switch to cheaper winter gasoline production in response to both events.

Refinery closures will force California to rely on imports in the longer term, leaving the state exposed to stretched supply lines. State regulators’ proposed solutions have raised eyebrows. The CEC’s Transportation Fuels Assessment report in August last year included a policy option in which California would buy and own refineries, which the state is not pursuing. Another option involves state-owned products reserves to allow rapid deployment of fuel when needed. The CEC and Carb regulators will also release a draft transportation fuels transition plan later this year.

By Eunice Bridges and Jasmine Davis , Argusmedia, 05 May 20205.

Need to build robust industrial supply chain security while considering emerging technologies

As the industrial sector advances into 2025, industrial supply chain security is increasingly likely to be defined by mandatory SBOMs (Software Bill of Materials), regulatory scrutiny, and the rise of AI (artificial intelligence) and advanced technologies. Cyber adversaries are also expected to be active this year, as they aim to react to new political developments and prove their continued ability to take action. 

Adoption of emerging technologies such as AI, ML (machine learning) and IoT (Internet of Things) will change the processes by which companies will protect their supply chains and offer real-time monitoring, as well as predictive analytics, with precursors, which will help to uncover vulnerabilities.

Increase in the technical sophistication and number of cyber threats and threats is also pushing awareness of industrial supply chain vulnerabilities. Escalations of adversarial attacks generate the need for preventive actions, since the effects can be cascading and serious. Companies must balance efficiency with strong cybersecurity protocols, making risk mitigation strategies like segmentation and access controls essential.

Organizations are adopting industry standards and regulations to bolster supply chain security, enhancing trust among stakeholders and partners. Adhering to established guidelines ensures a unified risk management approach, enabling critical businesses to navigate the complexities of integrated supply chains.

In this changing environment, it is only by linking cybersecurity with the operational objectives that resilient supply chains will be established and prepared for disruptions. The investment in training, awareness programs, and continuous improvement will further solidify these efforts and usher in a new era of secure, efficient, and adaptive industrial supply chains facing the changing nature of challenges. By blending innovation and security, organizations are more likely to determine the resilience and competitive advantage of industrial organizations preparing for the future.

Key industrial supply chain security trends and strategies for 2025

Industrial Cyber reached out to experts in the industrial supply chain space to highlight the major trends set to transform industrial supply chain security by 2025, and explore strategies for organizations to proactively address emerging threats.

Matt Wyckhouse, CEO of Finite State told Industrial Cyber that in 2025, three trends will define industrial supply chain security – mandatory SBOMs; regulatory scrutiny; and growth of AI and advanced technologies. 

“With the EU CRA coming into effect, SBOMs will become standard practice. These documents, paired with machine-readable vulnerability feeds, will give organizations a clearer view of software components and risks,” Wyckhouse said. “Heightened government oversight will require deeper transparency and better compliance measures across critical infrastructure. We expect to see increased harmonization of standards worldwide, making proactive risk management even more essential.”

He also mentioned that AI will accelerate threat detection and response, but also create new exploit paths like data poisoning and adversarial attacks.

To stay ahead, Wyckhouse identified that organizations need automated processes for collecting SBOMs, analyzing vulnerabilities especially in legacy software, and integrating security controls into every stage of product development.

Robert Kolasky, senior vice president for critical infrastructure at Exiger told Industrial Cyber that industrial supply chain security is on the top of the agenda in 2025 because of the actions of the Chinese government, as it relates to the ‘typhoon’ campaign to breach communications networks and other critical infrastructure for the purpose of espionage and – more concerning – potential disruption of critical functions. “Third parties and supply chains have been a critical attack mode utilized by Chinese cyber actors as well as others,” he added. 

“At the same time, there is pressure on the industrial organizations to demonstrate that they are aware of critical suppliers and their underlying security – including with product assurance,” Kolasky highlighted. “Amongst the trends in 2025 will be advancement of software bills of material maturity, innovation in analytic tools to assess SBOMs, attestation of secure software development practices and contractual requirements.” 

In 2025, Kolasky expects to see more attention on ‘proving’ industrial supply chain security for critical infrastructure that supports national security and market-based approaches to incentivize enhanced security. “To stay on top of emerging threats, organizations need to maintain strong information sharing channels and prioritize participation in relevant Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISACs).”

“In oil and gas, tighter OT/IT convergence, AI-driven security tools and stricter regulatory requirements are reshaping supply chain security,” Syed M. Belal, global director of OT/ICS cybersecurity strategy at Hexagon’s Asset Lifecycle Intelligence division, told Industrial Cyber. “Organizations can stay ahead by adopting proactive threat detection, fostering collaborative partnerships with vendors and ensuring regular risk assessments to adapt to evolving threats.” 

AI, ML and IoT: Reshaping industrial supply chain security

The executives examine how the swift integration of AI, ML, and IoT technologies will reshape opportunities and vulnerabilities in industrial supply chain security.

Wyckhouse noted that AI and machine learning offer incredible opportunities for real-time threat detection and remediation. These technologies excel at sifting through massive datasets—spotting anomalies faster than humans ever could— and can significantly reduce false positives.

“However, the explosion of IoT devices in industrial contexts widens the attack surface significantly. Each connected sensor or controller introduces potential entry points that aren’t always covered by traditional IT security,” Wyckhouse remarked. “Additionally, AI itself is vulnerable to sophisticated manipulations, including adversarial attacks that confuse algorithms or data poisoning that corrupts machine learning models. To mitigate these risks, organizations must invest in specialized IoT/OT security solutions, robust testing of AI models, and a clear incident response plan that addresses AI-specific threats.”

Kolasky identified that these new technologies are all related to automation, seeing patterns, and learning faster. “By definition, they should both improve the ability of attackers and defenders. In the case of industrial security, the unfortunate reality is too often the attacker innovates more quickly than the defenders, so artificial intelligence may identify additional vulnerabilities and learn from exploit attempts.”

He added that the challenge for defenders is to use these technologies to better map supply chains and critical points to ensure they are hardened and monitored and – when incidents do occur – contained.

“AI/ML enables advanced threat detection and predictive maintenance in oil and gas operations, reducing downtime risks,” Belal said. “However, IoT expansion increases vulnerabilities. Integrating AI tools with cybersecurity frameworks enhances resilience, while strong vendor alliances can offer tailored solutions to address specific threats and operational needs.”

Cyberattack hotspots: Vulnerabilities in industrial supply chain

The experts identify the most vulnerable areas of the industrial supply chain to cyber threats and explain how attackers exploit these weaknesses. They also predict which types of cyberattacks are likely to prevail in 2025.

Wyckhouse pointed out that attackers frequently target embedded systems and IoT devices, which are often overlooked by traditional security platforms, third-party software components, and CI/CD (Continuous Integration/Continuous Delivery) pipelines. Legacy software is also a popular attack point, as older systems rarely receive patches or updates, leaving known weaknesses open for exploitation.

“In 2025, we expect continued dominance of ransomware and supply chain attacks. Ransomware remains profitable and highly disruptive, while supply chain attacks offer adversaries the chance to infiltrate multiple organizations simultaneously,” Wyckhouse said. “We also anticipate more attacks on AI systems as adoption grows and persistent threats against critical infrastructure.”

Kolasky remarked that the parts of the industrial supply chain most susceptible to cyber threats start with areas that are heavily software dependent and crucial to real time operations, which can include logistics management systems, enterprise resource planning, and related security and safety providers. “All of these are closely integrated with business operations and thus are potential targets from motivated adversaries. These systems also operate largely in the cloud, which means the ways that they are deployed and interact with CSPs creates a cyber vulnerability.”

“The attacks that are likely to dominate are opportunistic attempts of deploying ransomware and strategic exploration that can be seen as a precursor to enhanced geopolitical conflict,” Kolasky noted. “Adversaries are likely to be active this year, as they will want to be responsive to new political factors and demonstrate that they are still capable of acting.”

Belal said that third-party vendors, legacy OT systems and IoT devices in oil and gas are susceptible to attacks. Threat actors exploit these through ransomware, phishing and supply chain-specific malware. 

In 2025, he pointed out that ransomware-as-a-service and advanced OT-targeted attacks will dominate. Regular assessments and targeted security controls are crucial for risk mitigation.

Addressing lessons learnt, consequences of supply chain breaches

Reflecting on past supply chain breaches, the executives focus on the most critical operational and financial consequences industrial organizations should prepare for.

Wyckhouse mentioned that past breaches illustrate there are four main consequences industrial organizations need to prepare for. These include operational disruptions like halted production lines, disrupted product deliveries, and compromised critical control systems; financial losses from ransoms, system restoration, regulatory fines, legal ramifications, and reputational damage; supply chain instability due to a compromised vendor; and loss of intellectual property and sensitive data.

Kolasky said that supply chain breaches are most significant when they are used to cause operational shutdown, which can occur via ransomware or other malware that is used to shut down connections that impact operating systems or to obfuscate availability of information which could prevent the ability of organizations to operate their core systems safely.

“In industrial cyber, when a security incident becomes a potential safety incident that is the most significant concern,” according to Kolasky. “This also crosses over with regulatory requirements and avoiding liability, which can have significant negative financial consequences. Organizations need to account for these downsides by being proactive in demanding and demonstrating transparency with their suppliers.”

“Supply chain breaches in oil and gas can cause operational shutdowns, environmental risks, regulatory penalties, and reputational harm,” Belal said. “The Colonial Pipeline breach demonstrated how disruptions cascade through operations and the economy. Organizations should prepare by enhancing incident response plans, focusing on asset visibility, and fortifying supply chain resilience.”

Blending industrial supply chain efficiency with cybersecurity

The executives offer practical strategies that industrial organizations can adopt to balance maintaining supply chain efficiency with implementing strong cybersecurity defenses. They also discuss the most effective approaches for mitigating risks.

Wyckhouse said that organizations can strike a balance between efficiency and implementing robust cybersecurity defenses by focusing on ‘shifting left’ and integrating security from the earliest stages of development; automating SBOMs, binary analysis, and vulnerability scanning within CI/CD pipelines so these tasks become routine rather than disruptive; and investing in real-time monitoring to detect anomalies early. He also called for focusing remediation efforts on the highest-risk vulnerabilities, and enforcing multi-factor authentication, least-privilege policies, and strict vendor access policies to reduce the impact of compromised credentials.

He added that proven approaches include DevSecOps (embedding security into every aspect of software development), adopting standards-based programs (like IEC 62443 or ISO 27001), and continuous employee training at all levels.

“The first practical strategy is to know your vendors and their vendors and regularly evaluate how they are used in your systems to understand which are the most critical in terms of importance to operations and system connectedness and access,” Kolasky said. “For the most critical vendors, their cyber security posture needs to be assessed and monitored using best in class technology.” 

From there, Kolasky added that organizations should put in place contract language, where possible, that demands attestation of good cyber security and secure by design processes as well as information sharing about any cyber incidents that occur – to include sharing of software and hardware bills of materials. “These bills of materials can be used to identify risk factors and possible correlations to vulnerabilities, which can enable conversations between organizations and their suppliers and, as mandated by contract, corrective actions.”

Belal said that strategies include segmenting OT/IT networks, leveraging real-time threat detection tools, and conducting supplier security audits. “Embedding cybersecurity into design processes, supported by AI-enabled monitoring tools, helps maintain efficiency while ensuring robust defenses. Collaborative efforts across the supply chain also enhance collective resilience.”

Leveraging industry standards, regulations for industrial supply chain protection

The executives examine how organizations can utilize industry standards and frameworks, such as NIST, ISO, or CMMC, to bolster supply chain security while preserving operational efficiency. They emphasize effective strategies that can harmonize compliance, risk mitigation, and supply chain performance.

“Standards like NIST, ISO, and CMMC provide a structured roadmap for identifying and mitigating risks in industrial environments,” Wyckhouse said. “Organizations that map their security programs to these frameworks can more easily demonstrate compliance, allocate resources effectively, and integrate security measures into daily operations.” 

He added that key steps include aligning internal processes, like secure coding practices, vulnerability scanning, and incident response, to recognized frameworks; using tools that automatically track controls, generate SBOMs, and document adherence to requirements to reduce manual overhead and maintain continuous security; and performing regular risk assessments, focusing on high-impact improvements first. 

Kolasky said that industry standards and frameworks provide the common language by which organizations can communicate with suppliers about security needs and practices. 

“Organizations can utilize supply chain risk capabilities to assess risk factors with critical suppliers and ensure that their most critical vendors and others that present high- and medium-risk follow accepted industry standards,” he added. “This should not add additional compliance burden if the standards are already in place, which limits the need for new evaluations for every vendor and for vendors to do bespoke assessments for every new contract.”

Belal said that industry standards such as NIST CSF and ISO 27001 offer structured guidelines for risk management and incident response. “Organizations can ensure robust security while maintaining efficiency by integrating these standards into operational workflows and automating compliance processes. Periodic reviews and gap analysis help balance compliance with performance needs,” he concluded.

By: Anna Ribeiro, Industrialcyber / 05 May, 2025.