Tag: crude

Investments in Norway’s oil and gas sector are set to hit a record high this year, led by increased investments in operating fields, Statistics Norway said on Tuesday in its latest survey of companies’ investment plans.

The quarterly survey of investment plans showed that total investments in oil and gas activity in Norway in 2025, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at $26.6 billion (269 billion Norwegian crowns), up by 6% compared to the estimates in the previous quarter.

“The upward adjustment for 2025 is to a large extent driven by higher estimates within the category fields on stream,” the statistics office said.

However, investments are expected to peak this year and begin to decline moderately from 2026 onwards. The estimate for 2026 is now at $20.5 billion (207 billion crowns), down by 4.3% from the expected 2025 investment level, according to the statistics office.

Investments in 2023 and 2024 jumped, due to Norway’s oil tax package from 2020 incentivizing operators to submit a plan for development and operation (PDO) for several new fields, Statistics Norway noted.

Inflation and rising supply chain costs have also boosted the value of the investments in the past two years.

Considering that “very few new developments have occurred since 2022”, it is not surprising that a moderate decline in investments in field development is indicated this year. But this decline in investment in field development is being offset by expectations of a very high planned investment activity in fields on stream, the statistics office said.

Further exploration efforts and new discoveries would be crucial to slowing the expected decline in Norway’s oil and gas production in the 2030s, the authorities of Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer have said in recent years.

Production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to decline gradually in the coming years, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said in April in its annual report.

“However, the level of this decline will depend on the volume of new resources discovered and how much of the discovered resources are developed and actually come on stream,” the regulator said.

By: Oil Price / May 28, 2025

ExxonMobil has started exclusive talks with Canadian fuel retailer North Atlantic over the sale of its stake in its French subsidiary Esso, including its Gravenchon oil refinery, the company announced on May 28.

A statement from ExxonMobil said it is negotiating with North Atlantic France over the acquisition of its entire 82.89% stake in the Esso business and its assets, including the 240,000 b/d refinery it operates in Normandy.

The companies are also discussing the sale of a 100% stake in ExxonMobil Chemical France, the statement said.

Subject to regulatory approval, the deal is expected to close in Q4 2025, after which North Atlantic will file a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares of Esso SAF.

The Esso business is responsible for roughly 20% of the active refining capacity in France through its operation of Gravenchon and separate lubricants plant, according to its estimates.

Across the country, Esso also markets fuel and lubricants through a branded reseller network of around 750 sites.

In a new landing page on its website, North Atlantic set out aims to develop a “green energy hub” at Gravenchon with new low-carbon fuels and renewables projects, adding that the site is well-positioned to serve energy-intensive industries like data centers.

North Atlantic’s retail business in Eastern Canada and French territories Saint Pierre and Miquelon could also offer offtake certainty for the refinery, the company said, supporting strong utilization rates.

French divestments

For ExxonMobil, the Esso deal marks the culmination of a string of French divestments as it has concentrated on its US and Asian assets.

In 2024, the company began significantly downsizing its French downstream business, closing its chemicals operations in Gravenchon and later selling its 140,000 b/d Fos-sur-Mer refinery to a Trafigura-backed joint venture.

Completion of the Esso deal will leave ExxonMobil with just four remaining refinery stakes in Europe: Antwerp, Rotterdam, Fawley, and Germany’s MiRO.

Once a key asset for Exxon, Gravenchon attracted significant investment at the beginning of the decade, boosting yields of high-value products and helping it capture market share when rival Grandpuits stopped operating in 2021.

As France’s second-largest refinery, the site benefits from a direct pipeline connection to Paris airports and export flexibility from the nearby Le Havre terminal.

Nonetheless, the closure of the Gravenchon steam cracker signaled fading appetite from ExxonMobil to continue operating the site long-term, closing off the opportunity to capitalize on stronger petrochemicals integration as fossil fuel demand stalls.

In its statement, ExxonMobil said that the proposed sale aligns with its wider strategy, but stressed that Europe remains an “important region” for the business.

“ExxonMobil has been operating in France for over 120 years, and we plan to maintain a significant commercial presence with the Esso brand,” said Tanya Bryja, senior vice president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions.

Meanwhile North Atlantic CEO Ted Lomond called the acquisition a “pivotal moment” for the Canadian company to establish a European presence for the first time.

“We are eager to consolidate Gravenchon’s role as a vital center of French energy and industry for decades to come and grow North Atlantic into a premier transatlantic energy company,” he said.

European contraction

Analysts have warned that the exodus of IOCs from the European refining sector could precede a structural decline in margins around the turn of the decade.

According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, ExxonMobil has already slashed its European refining capacity by around a third since 2000, mirroring downsizing by competitors such as Shell.

And as European producers eye rising operating costs and stalling oil demand, new global competitors in the Middle East, Latin America and West Africa promise to accelerate another wave of closures. Based on surplus capacity alone, the International Energy Agency sees at least 1 million b/d of European refining capacity at risk of closure by 2030.

After selling its Italian Augusta and Sarpom refineries and closing its 116,000 b/d Slagen site in Norway in 2021, ExxonMobil recently tried and failed to shed its stake in Germany’s largest refinery, MiRO, only to be blocked in court by co-owner Shell.

The exit of established refiners has encouraged smaller energy players and traders to venture into the sector, often with the aim of transforming assets to reduce their emissions.

Experts have warned that only investors with deep pockets, such as major commodity traders, will be equipped to properly fund billion-dollar decarbonization projects. However, Commodity Insights oil analyst Samy Tamarat said the transaction could signal a “potential lifeline” for Gravenchon.

“While the company’s low-carbon fuels ambitions will require significant investment, it will ensure the site has a future in a market where demand for traditional refined oil products is declining,” he said.

The completion of the Esso deal will include conditions to ensure continuous crude oil supply for Gravenchon and lasting purchase agreements for ExxonMobil, the company statement said. The deal valued Esso shares at Eur 149.19 ($168.86) per Esso share, before adjustments for changes in inventory value, cash payouts and other changes.

By Kelly Norways , Spglobal / May 28, 2025

As geopolitical instability, sanctions, and supply chain shocks become commonplace, physical commodity traders have emerged as indispensable agents to maintain the flow of energy, food, and raw materials.

By leveraging political and commercial networks, as well as centuries of collective trading experience, they act as the market’s shock absorbers – responding to disruptions in real time, frictionlessly reallocating supply where it is needed. Fragmented global trade, regional rivalries and resource nationalism have not diminished their relevance. On the contrary, commodity traders are now more important than ever.

Arbitrage is a core function for traders and plays an important market stabilizing role. When volatility occurs through supply glut, shipping bottlenecks, or panic, traders smooth the curves by injecting liquidity, rerouting cargoes or drawing on inventories. If Brent crude drops due to excess North Sea production while American WTI holds firm amid constrained US supply, traders seize the spread and, in doing so, nudge prices closer together. When shipping routes are upended – say, by Houthi missile attacks in the Red Sea or insurance premiums surging around the Strait of Hormuz – savvy operators reroute cargoes, adjust freight bookings and ensure the crude still reaches a willing refinery, albeit at a different margin.

Contango, where future contract prices exceed spot, has become increasingly common amid uncertainty over demand and storage availability. Traders with secure access to storage terminals are well placed to benefit. By purchasing commodities at current deflated rates and selling them forward at a premium, they effectively monetize time. While financially savvy, these strategies also temper price swings that would otherwise send markets into panic. By storing excess supply now, they reduce glut; by releasing it later, they prevent scarcity.

Related: The Case Against Fixing the Grid (Again)

Natural gas markets, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), have showcased this dynamic more vividly than any other. Europe’s scramble to replace Russian pipeline gas in 2022 created arbitrage windows so wide that traders with proper infrastructure reaped windfalls. LNG cargoes enroute to Asia were diverted mid-ocean to European terminals offering triple the price. When prices normalized, contango set in, and traders stored gas for seasonal release. This provided not only commercial benefit but also strategic breathing room for European governments. In one emblematic case, Trafigura signed a multi-billion-dollar agreement to supply German utilities with American LNG, effectively substituting Russia’s Gazprom. While governments passed legislation and held emergency meetings, it was trading desks that delivered energy where it was needed.

Recent Middle East instability, coupled with rising demand for natural gas across Asia, has amplified the premium placed gas market flexibility. Firms with access to deep storage and shipping capacity have found themselves well placed to respond. BGN, a well-known mid-market trader, has grown into a significant player in both LPG and LNG and its operations considerably reduce gas market volatility. It is also eyeing new gas developments in Africa as the continent experiences a gas demand boom thanks to growing economies.

“Across major African economies — South Africa, DRC, Nigeria, and Egypt, for example — there’s a clear and immediate demand for cleaner transition fuels like gas and LPG. As booming populations and rising economies put real pressure on inefficient, polluting biomass, we’re hearing louder and louder calls from Africa’s growing middle class for cleaner and more efficient fuels,” said BGN’s CEO, Rüya Bayegan.

BGN’s sprawling infrastructure footprint – spanning major production and demand hubs – enables it to absorb cargoes during oversupply and release them when and where demand increases. Well-positioned trading firms are positioned not only to reduce global gas disruption impacts, but to profit from their efforts.

The same applies to oil. Whether due to OPEC supply cuts or increases, embargoes or conflict – it is often traders who step in. Redirection of Russian oil following Western sanctions could have sparked a supply crunch. Instead, commodity traders sourced appropriate replacements for Europe. In more precarious environments, traders venture where major oil companies or state firms hesitate.

In metals and minerals, the narrative is similar. As the energy transition gathers pace, critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earths have become strategic commodities. China’s recent curbs on mineral exports exposed the fragility of global supply chains. In response, commodity traders have moved swiftly to source alternatives. Trader Glencore, for instance, has forayed into cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo, operating two cobalt and copper mines that offer Western clients an alternative to Chinese-backed supply. Another example of traders entering territory where government are hesitant to enter. Traders’ agility and willingness to assume political risk ensures that vital inputs for batteries, solar panels, and semiconductors continue to circulate. As the West furthers its strategy to pivot away from Chinese-controlled critical mineral deposits, resource-rich African nations will likely open their doors to transparent and compliant traders and help launch news economic booms. 

Traders thrive in volatility. But in profiting from arbitrage, they prevent far worse outcomes: empty supermarket shelves, blackouts, and soaring petrol and diesel prices. Their gains are the cost of resilience. Traders act without public mandate, but often with great speed and precision. Their absence would expose markets to greater fragility. As long as the world depends on natural resources to prosper, commodity traders will remain the quiet architects of stability in an otherwise unruly system.

By Jose Chalhoub, Oilprice – May 12, 2025