ARA Oil Product Stocks Edge Lower

5 March, 2020 (Argus) – The total volume of oil products held independently in storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area edged lower during the week to 4 March, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Overall oil products stocks fell on the week. The small drop came as a sharp draw in fuel oil stocks was largely balanced out by rises in inventories of all other products.

Independently-held fuel oil stocks in ARA fell on the week according to Insights Global, reaching their lowest since December. Fuel oil tankers entered ARA storage from Russia — the world’s principal exporter of high-sulphur fuel oil — the Baltic states, the UK and the US. Production of fuel oil is increasing in Europe, which combined with a sharp drop in demand following the coronavirus outbreak, has pressured prices lower. EU-16 output was at its highest since April 2019 in January. Fuel oil was taken out of ARA storage for deliveries to destinations east of Suez, including the Mideast Gulf and Singapore, but it was unclear which grades of fuel oil were being exported.

Gasoil stocks rose on the week, ticking up slightly from last week’s one-year low. Gasoil was imported into ARA storage from Russia principally, after loadings from the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk were scheduled at five-year highs for the second consecutive month in February. Gasoil departed ARA storage for France — on sea-going vessels and barges up the Rhine — the UK and west Africa. Sharply lower diesel prices could have attracted buyers back to the market in northwest Europe.

Gasoline inventories rose on the week, reaching their firmest since mid-February. Gasoline was exported to Canada and the US this week, and to west Africa. Westbound exports probably rose amid favourable economics for transatlantic shipments, with Nymex Rbob trading above Eurobob gasoline in the week to 28 February. Gasoline entered ARA tanks from France, Norway, and the UK.

A gain in ARA naphtha inventories was registered. Naphtha arrived from Norway, Russia and the UK. Another naphtha cargo was exported from ARA storage to Italy. The Nord Gardenia departed Rotterdam for the Sarroch refinery in Sardinia. The refinery is undergoing maintenance on some units used in gasoline production. The Nord Gardenia‘s cargo is probably heavy naphtha for using as a gasoline blending component. The light naphtha that comprises the bulk of European trading typically flows in the opposite direction, making the flow relatively unusual.

The LR2 tanker Lyric Camellia delivered jet fuel to ARA in the week to 4 March, having loaded its cargo back in February from Tarragona, Spain. That would be the first Tarragona jet fuel loading in at least four years, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. The fixture is probably a result of more competitive freight rates in the region and discounts of Mediterranean jet fuel to those in northwest Europe, opening an arbitrage route. Jet stocks in ARA rose on the week following the import from Spain and no exports, as demand remains poor in the region given a slew of flight cancellations in Europe.

Reporter: Robert Harvey

ARA Oil Products Stock Levels Fall to Ten-Week Lows

27 February, 2020 (Argus) — The total volume of oil products held independently in storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to yesterday, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

ARA stocks fell in the week to 26 February, down from a week earlier to their lowest since the week to 19 December. The fall resulted from draws on all surveyed products bar fuel oil.

Gasoil inventories fell in the week, the lowest since 17 January 2019. Demand for middle distillates along the river Rhine was reasonably firm, but an uptick in outflows was the primary reason for the stock draw. Tankers left the ARA area for Germany, Norway, the UK, west Africa and France. Widespread industrial action in France has prompted some diesel cargoes to leave the ARA for western France in recent weeks. But the volume rose further this week with an Aframax tanker carrying diesel departing for the Mediterranean port of Lavera. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Russia, the Baltics and the US.

Gasoline inventories also fell — broadly in line with the level recorded at the same time last year. Outflows to west Africa rose on the week, and tankers also departed for the Mediterranean and Puerto Rico. Several seagoing cargoes remain on the jetty in the ARA as a result of delays to gasoline blending activity in the area. Viable arbitrage economics on the route from northwest Europe to the US Atlantic coast suggest that some of these cargoes will head west across the Atlantic. Tankers arrived from Finland, Russia and the UK.

Naphtha stocks in the ARA fell, falling back after jumping the previous week. Demand from petrochemical end-users along the river Rhine was lower on the week, but with relatively little naphtha arriving in the region, overall stocks were lower. Tankers did arrive from France, Poland and the UK, and the Harald Maersk departed the ARA for the Mediterranean carrying a heavy naphtha cargo.

Jet kerosine inventories dropped on the week to reach fresh 5.5 year lows. End-users are choosing to run down their private inventories rather than buy in a time of falling outright prices and uncertainty over potential aviation restrictions related to the coronavirus outbreak. No tankers arrived in the ARA area and at least one departed for the UK. Fuel oil inventories rose. Tankers arrived from Poland, Russia and the US and departed for the Mediterranean.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Port of Rotterdam aims to become the most sustainable biorefinery in Europe

Europe’s largest biorefinery is located in the heart of the Port of Rotterdam. Alco Energy Rotterdam converts corn into bioethanol fuel in a production process that generates zero waste. The CO₂ released during the process is transported to greenhouses in Westland and the remaining corn pulp is suitable for use as animal feed. ‘We aim to become the most sustainable biorefinery in Europe. Perhaps even in the world. Logistically, Rotterdam is the ideal place for us.’

Ethanol is produced during the fermentation and distillation of certain crops. Alco Energy – a relaunch of Abengoa – uses animal feed quality corn for this. The sugars in the corn are converted into almost pure alcohol, which can be mixed easily with petrol. European legislation specifies that in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from traffic, in 2020 at least ten percent of fuel for the transport sector must originate from renewable energy sources. In line with this, Dutch petrol stations have been obliged since last October to mix some ten percent of bioethanol in Euro95 petrol. ‘If you fill up with Euro95, you’ll see E10 mentioned at the petrol pump. This refers to the ten percent added bioethanol,’ stated Robine Koning, Alco Energy Rotterdam Plant Manager. Greenhouse gas emissions from ethanol are considerably lower than petrol. In Alco’s case, emissions are almost 95 percent lower.

Every thousand kilos of corn produces 330 kilos of ethanol. Almost the same amount of mass remains after the corn sugars have been converted into alcohol. The high protein level of this DDGS (Distiller’s Dried Grain with Solubles) makes it a very much sought-after product in the animal feed industry. ‘Research shows that DDGS reduces methane production in livestock,’ explained Koning. ‘And as our corn only comes from European countries and has a GMP++ certificate for animal feed safety, it is guaranteed to be GMO-free. It can partially replace imported soybean meal in animal feed.’

Alco Energy transports the CO₂ released during fermentation in the production process via underground pipelines to the horticulture industry in Westland, so that the greenhouses there do not need to generate CO₂ from fossil fuels. ‘This summer we will start using a second compressor so that we can transport even more CO₂ to the horticulturalists,’ stated Rob Vierhout, Alco Energy’s Public Affairs Advisor. ‘This is in line with our ambition to become Europe’s most sustainable, efficient and modern biorefinery. We are currently number two, I think, just losing out to a Swedish company. We are also investigating the possibilities of reducing CO₂ emissions by reducing the use of natural gas and by using other raw materials than corn, such as residual waste.’

Logistically, Rotterdam is the ideal location for the biorefinery. Corn is unloaded from sea-going vessels that can berth at the plant’s quay. And the inland shipping, rail and road transport connections are also good. ‘Annually, we supply 550 million litres to the petrol market. We transport this ethanol by train or vessel to oil companies, mainly in Northwest Europe,’ stated Koning. ‘This combination of transport flows makes us incredibly flexible.’

Reported by Port of Rotterdam (19 February 2020)

U.S. sanctions on Rosneft Trading seen shifting crude flows

U.S. sanctions on Russian Rosneft’s trading arm will disrupt a slice of global crude flows and may prompt refineries in Europe, India and the United States to shift purchases to other crude suppliers, traders said.

The United States on Tuesday redoubled efforts to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by barring U.S. dealings with Rosneft Trading S.A., a subsidiary of Russia’s state oil major Rosneft, which Washington said provides him a financial lifeline. Russia has called the sanctions illegal and said it plans to consider options in reaction.

The ban will likely hit some U.S. direct purchases of Urals, typically a medium sour blend, from Rosneft Trading and could make it more difficult for refiners in Asia and Europe to buy from the firm. Washington advised non-U.S. firms to seek guidance should they be unable to wind down dealings with the trading firm within 90 days.

European refiners could look to source replacement crudes from West Africa, Brazil and the U.S. Gulf Coast, if Urals become expensive, traders said. Urals is the most common export grade from Russia and a benchmark for medium sour crudes in Europe. It could create new demand or support prices for alternatives such as Colombia’s Vasconia and Castilla and Basrah heavy, they said.

Phillips 66 has been one of the biggest buyers of Urals on the Gulf Coast from suppliers including Rosneft Oil, according to U.S. Customs data on Refinitiv Eikon. Companies that have imported Urals from Rosneft Trading in recent years included PBF Energy and Swiss trader Trafigura .

Phillips 66’s imports through the U.S. Gulf Coast and some Italian refiners in Trieste are likely to be affected, one market source said.

Phillips 66 and PBF Energy spokespeople declined to comment. A spokeswoman for Trafigura said it would comply with the sanctions.

U.S. crude flows to Europe are set to increase as demand from Asia has plummeted due to the coronavirus outbreak, sources said.

In India, refiner Reliance Industries said it was assessing the impact of the sanction. Nayara Energy, part-owned by Rosneft, said it complies with all relevant and applicable U.S. sanctions.

The sanctions do not target other Russian traders including Litasco, an arm of Lukoil. But past sanctions have tended to prompt some companies to do more than required. Traders on Wednesday said Rosneft’s oil sales, excluding the trading arm, were not affected.

Rosneft Trading acts as a counterparty on behalf of Rosneft in some global deals and plays a role in an informal oil trading alliance Rosneft has with Trafigura, traders said. It is unclear what impact the sanctions will have on that alliance.

Reporter: Devika Krishna Kumar from Reuters

Oil Trading Giant Sees Oil Price Recovery Later This Year

Commodity trading major Vitol said it expected oil prices to recover later this year once the effect of the coronavirus epidemic wanes, Bloomberg reported, citing the company’s chief executive.

Before that, however, the oil market will suffer a 200-million-barrel negative impact on demand during the first quarter, Russell Hardy said, with loss of demand in China at 4 million bpd at the moment, on the back of travel bans and lower economic activity.

While this is undoubtedly negative for prices, Vitol’s CEO also said there is a positive effect to counter the impact of the coronavirus, and this is lower production in Libya and Venezuela, along with OPEC plans to deepen their production cuts.

“All of those factors are going to help re-balance the 200 million barrels, which will leave the market in a better position for the second half of the year,” Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview. “There’s an OPEC meeting to come in a couple of weeks time and the market’s anticipating some kind of supply response from OPEC.”

OPEC officials earlier this month recommended additional cuts of 600,000 bpd to prop up oil prices, but Russia has been reluctant to agree, asking for more time to consult on the recommendation.

This opposition is hardly surprising: Russia has consistently budgeted for lower oil prices than the actual ones since the 2014 price collapse, and as a result is much more resilient to price drops than Saudi Arabia. It has also signaled repeatedly it is making a compromise with its oil industry in supporting the cuts as they are.

The next meeting of OPEC and its partners in the cuts is scheduled for early March and if history is any indication, Moscow will agree to an extension or deepening of the cuts, but it may not stick to them.

Meanwhile, the EIA, the IEA, and OPEC itself have revised down their global oil demand outlooks, with the EIA the most pessimistic, expecting demand to take a hit of 378,000 bpd for this year. OPEC revised down its outlook by 230,000 bpd earlier this month, while the IEA’s downward revision was for 365,000 bpd.

Reporter: Irina Slav from Oilprice.com (21 February 2020)

JPMorgan Warns It Might Get Walloped by the Climate Crisis

JPMorgan Chase & Co, long a target of public scrutiny for its relationship with the fossil-fuel industry, is getting more serious about the impacts of the climate crisis.

The bank’s annual regulatory report on Tuesday added “climate change” as a risk factor, saying it could hurt operations and customers. Risks including prolonged droughts or flooding, increased frequency of wildfires, rising sea levels and altered rainfall could “prompt changes in regulations or consumer preferences, which in turn could have negative consequences for the business models of JPMorgan Chase’s clients,” the company wrote in the filing.

The added disclosure came a day after JPMorgan vowed to stop financing coal-fired power plants unless they’re using technology to capture and sequester carbon. The bank also won’t provide project financing for new oil and gas developments in the Arctic.

The climate crisis and its potential impact on society, markets and the global economy is gaining more attention from the business community. This month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. also added to their regulatory filings stronger warnings about the toll it could take on their businesses.

Environmental activists have been pressuring JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank, to divest from the fossil-fuel industry, and have called on shareholders to remove Lee Raymond, the longtime climate skeptic who previously ran Exxon Mobil Corp., from the lender’s board.

Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, another target of environmentalists, has said climate change can be solved only through government policies.

“I’ve always thought it was a problem,” Dimon said at the bank’s investor day Tuesday. “We should acknowledge the problem and start working on it.”

Financial firms often include dozens of disclaimers about potential risks in their annual 10-K filings, but JPMorgan has typically focused on those more directly related to the economy, regulation and competition. Economists at the firm have been warning clients about the potential for climate change to threaten the global economy and even the human race.

Reporter: Michelle F. Davis by Bloomberg (26 February 2020)

Navigating uncertainty – IMO 2020

In the wake of IMO 2020, the Chinese New Year and the coronavirus, the more than usual uncertainty has generated rough sailing throughout all sectors of shipping.

IMO 2020 seems to have vanished from the news but was the first topic covered Capitallink organised a webinar showcasing the “navigation” strategies of four listed companies- with participation by company ceos, moderated by Jefferies equity analyst Randy Giveans.

Panel participant Kim Ullman, the ceo of Concordia Maritime, noted “the industry said that they would fix it…and they have.” He said that price spreads between low sulphur and high sulphur were actually lower than many industry participants had expected – presently in the range of $150 – $175 per tonne, depending on geography.

On the cargo demand side, he added that there had been an uptick in oil cargoes moving “out to the East” to be refined in line with expectations of market participants.

Panelist Valentios “Eddie” Valentis, the top man at Pyxis Tankers, explained that, in 2019 Q4, movements of low sulphur fuel cargoes helped fuel the hires for MR tankers up to levels as high as $35k per day. He explained further that delays as supply organized bunker stocks brought about some delays- all sorted out now, which also contributed to the Q4 strength.

“Things are settling down,” he said, explaining that Pyxis, operating five smaller tankers, had not experienced any difficulties with arranging for low sulphur fuel supplies, in various ports.

Dry bulk webinar participant, Stamatis Tsantanis, the chairman/ ceo of capesize owner Seanergy Maritime, offered a similar view, noting that, for Seanergy vessels not equipped with scrubbers, “we have found that the supply of low sulphur fuel is abundant.”

The contraction of the price spreads have impacted the firms in different ways. Tsantanis described arrangements where his company’s scrubber fitted vessels had been entered into three – five year deals with major charterers. In these schemes, the charterers paid the capital costs, installation and offhires for scrubber retrofits; Tsantanis described a “profit sharing plan” where the repayment to the time charterer comes from fuel savings. The shipowner participates in the sharing if the spread widens.

Concordia Maritime’s Ullman acknowledged that his firm, where the vessels are consuming low sulphur fuel, had entered into forward hedges to protect against increases in the price differential, at the time that a decision was taken not to invest in scrubbers. He told the webinar listeners: “The prices today are lower than the hedge, but fleet enjoying lower MGO prices.”

Looking towards the future, beyond IMO2020, Panelist Marco Fiori, the ceo of Premuda, said “There are a lot of question marks…it’s very difficult to operate longer term in a capital intensive industry,” when there are such great uncertainties about future fuels suitability. The silver lining in all this is that fuel uncertainties “have not been very encouraging for ordering”.

Reporter: Barry Parker from Seatrade Maritime News (24 February 2020)

ARA Oil Products Stock Levels Fall

13 February, 2020 (Argus) — The total volume of oil products held independently in storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell by around 1pc during the week to yesterday, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

ARA stocks fell in the week to 12 February, down from a week earlier. The small fall resulted from draws on gasoil, naphtha and jet fuel inventories.

Gasoil inventories fell in the week to 12 February, partly as a result of firm barge flows up the river Rhine but also because of demand for middle distillate cargoes in western France that drew in tankers from the ARA area. Refining in the country has been impacted by industrial action in the country since December, prompting a rise in barge flows to Strasbourg and unusual tanker bookings from the ARA hub to west coast destinations. There are currently [no loading restrictions] affecting barges along the river Rhine, a factor that further supported outflows from the ARA area. Cargoes departed for the UK as well as France, and arrived from Russia, Poland and the US.

Naphtha stocks in the ARA fell, the lowest level recorded since October. No naphtha cargoes departed the hub, while cargoes entered from Poland and the UK. Naphtha demand from petrochemical end-users in the ARA area and along the Rhine was steady at the firm levels recorded in recent week, and low naphtha supply in the key Mediterranean supply source has limited volumes available to northwest European buyers.

Jet kerosine inventories dropped on the week to their lowest since March 2015 amid tight supply around the continent. Refinery outages in the Mediterranean and low imports have combined to reduce the volume of available supply in northwest Europe. No tankers arrived in the ARA area and at least one tanker departed for the UK.

Gasoline stocks rose, amid persistently low exports to key arbitrage region the US. High inventories in the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts made the transatlantic arbitrage route from northwest Europe unviable during the opening five weeks of 2020, but a single tanker did depart the ARA area for the US during the week to yesterday and the route appears viable on paper. A tanker also departed for Argentina, probably carrying summer-grade gasoline, as well as to the Mideast Gulf, the Caribbean and west Africa. Tankers arrived from Norway, Spain and the UK.

Fuel oil inventories were broadly unchanged on the week. The volume arriving from Russian fell on the week, while tankers arrived from the Baltics and the UK. Tankers departed for west Africa but not for Singapore.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA Oil Products Stock Levels Rise

6 February, 2020 (Argus) — The total volume of oil products held independently in storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week to yesterday, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Overall ARA stocks reached a small rise the week to 6 February. The small rise was driven by gains in gasoline and fuel oil inventories, which both recorded double-digit increases.

Fuel oil inventories rose during the week. Inflows into ARA came from France, Poland, Russia and the UK. The cargo from Poland was IMO-compliant low sulphur fuel oil, and the cargoes from Russia arrived in Aframax tankers. Russia typically exports high-sulphur fuel oil, demand for which has been curbed by the IMO 2020 global marine fuel sulphur cap. Fuel oil tankers departed ARA for the Mediterranean area this week, which could result in onward shipments east of Suez.

Gasoline stocks rose, amid low exports. The arbitrage route to the US remained closed throughout the reporting period, owing to high inventories across the Atlantic. Tankers did depart for the Caribbean and west Africa, and to the Mideast Gulf. Some mild barge congestion was heard around the Amsterdam area, causing some loading and discharge delays. Tankers arrived from France, Spain and Sweden.

Stocks of all other surveyed products fell. Gasoil inventories fell in the week to 6 February, largely as a result of a week on week rise in barge flows up the river Rhine. The increase in the volume heading inland was prompted by the lifting of loading restrictions that had been in place because of low water levels. The incoming volume was low amid weak demand in northwest Europe, where unseasonally high temperatures continue to weigh on heating oil demand. Tankers arrived from the Baltics and Russia, and departed for France and the Mediterranean.

Naphtha stocks in the ARA fell, according to Insights Global. No naphtha cargoes departed the trading hub, while cargoes entered from Norway and Russia. Naphtha demand has strengthened from the petrochemical sector and barge flows to inland destinations were higher on the week. And independently-held inventories of jet kerosine fell on the week. No jet cargoes were delivered to the area, and tankers departed for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA Oil Products Stocks Fall Back

24 January, 2020 (Argus) — The total volume of oil products held independently in storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell on the week after reaching their highest since 19 September a week earlier, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Gasoline inventories fell on the week. Demand from the US remained low with US Gulf Coast inventories at record highs. Tankers did depart for west Africa, Puerto Rico, Brazil and the Mediterranean. Some of the gasoline heading for the Mediterranean may travel on to the Mideast Gulf, where supply is tightening ahead of scheduled refinery turnarounds.

Gasoil inventories fell to reach their lowest level in over a month. Cargoes arrived from the US, the UK, Norway and France. Tankers departed the area for Germany and the UK. A fall in diesel margins over the past few weeks may have prompted run cuts in the area, leading to a draw on existing volumes.

Fuel oil stocks fell to reach three-week lows. A single cargo arrived in the area, from Denmark. Tankers departed for Spain, Greece, the UK and France. Jet kerosine inventories also fell heavily, dropping by around 8pc on the week to reach their lowest level since January 2017. No tankers arrived in the ARA area and cargoes departed for the UK.

Naphtha inventories fell to reach five-week lows. Tankers arrived from France and Russia and none departed. Demand from petrochemical buyers along the river Rhine rose week on week, as end-users refilled their storage units following a period of end of year destocking during December.

Reporter: Thomas Waner