Is ARA Losing Its Edge as Europe’s Gasoline Blending Hub?

The ARA region (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) has long served as a strategic hub for gasoline blending in Europe. However, recent developments indicate this role is eroding, and the implications are significant for traders, terminals, and refiners alike.

One key trend is the decline in gasoline component flows into and out of ARA. Fewer blending components are being exported from the region, and fewer are being imported into ARA for redistribution. This drop signals reduced market reliance on the hub, as new trade routes and blending centers emerge elsewhere.

Adding to the challenge is the ongoing wave of refinery closures across Europe. As refining capacity in and around ARA diminishes, so does the availability of blendstocks, undermining the economic case for ARA-based operations. While ARA continues to hold geographic and logistical advantages, its core function as a gasoline blender is increasingly at risk.

This shift may be influenced by stricter environmental regulations, which are compelling refiners and traders to seek cleaner components and blending strategies elsewhere. Additionally, the rise of digital blending and offshore hubs offers more flexibility, particularly for operators targeting non-European markets.

Strategic Implications: Terminal operators and supply chain planners must re-evaluate their reliance on ARA as a central node. The future may lie in diversification, with investments in multi-product flexibility, digital blending technologies, or strategic partnerships outside the traditional Northwest European network.

ARA is not disappearing, but its role is changing. The days of centralized, high-volume gasoline blending may be giving way to a more fragmented and agile supply model.

Is your terminal strategy built for a future where ARA is no longer Europe’s undisputed blending hub?

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

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Red Sea Shipping Disruption Adds 30 Days to Global Trade

The closure of the Red Sea corridor has added a new layer of volatility to global supply chains. Since early 2024, shipping lines have been forced to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid geopolitical risk. This has extended voyages by up to 30 days, reshaping freight flows and financial planning across industries.

The implications are far-reaching. First, the cost of freight has spiked, with higher bunker fuel expenses and increased vessel time on water. This added cost is being passed down the supply chain, ultimately reaching end-users. Second, import volumes have become more erratic, undermining the just-in-time inventory models that many terminals and distributors rely on. The ripple effects include storage shortages, cargo bunching, and uneven distribution timelines.

Third, and most crucially, price volatility has surged. With disruptions in timing and sourcing, the market has grown more sensitive to spot imbalances, arbitrage windows, and local demand spikes. While some market players have adjusted to the new route, it has come at the cost of reduced flexibility and increased exposure to shipping-related risks.

Strategic Response: Companies must build more agility into their logistics models. This includes diversifying supply sources, investing in regional storage buffers, and tightening coordination between shipping lines, terminals, and trading desks.

A route closure is not a temporary inconvenience. It rewires global trade logic. The Red Sea disruption has exposed critical vulnerabilities in route dependency and planning resiliency.

Is your operation built to withstand multi-week route shifts without collapsing your margin model?

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

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Low Water Levels Are Reshaping Barge Logistics in Europe

River-based logistics are facing a critical disruption across Europe. Inland barge transport, long considered a cost-effective and environmentally friendly mode of moving liquid bulk cargo, is being tested by the increasing occurrence of low water levels.

Traditionally, water levels fluctuate within manageable seasonal cycles. However, due to changing weather patterns and reduced rainfall in key regions, we are now observing sustained periods of low water. These conditions reduce the draft available for barges, effectively limiting their capacity and increasing the number of trips needed to move the same volume of product.

This shift has created a ripple effect across terminal operations. More barges on the water mean longer wait times, increased congestion at port entry points, and tighter scheduling demands for loading and unloading windows. From a cost perspective, efficiency drops while operational complexity rises. Additionally, the environmental promise of barge transport diminishes if more vessels are needed to complete the same job.

Terminal operators, shippers, and logistics providers must now reevaluate route planning, fleet management, and inventory cycles. Contingency planning becomes critical. Investments in data-driven water level monitoring, flexible routing, and modal diversification (e.g., shifting to rail or pipeline where possible) could become competitive differentiators.

What was once a stable and reliable mode of transport now requires active management and risk mitigation. Climate variability is no longer just a weather issue—it’s a logistics issue.

Are your inland logistics and terminal assets ready to handle prolonged water-related disruptions?

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

Click here to schedule your demo and get access to BargeINSIGHTS for free!

Are Europe’s Refineries Losing the Global Race?

Europe’s refining sector is under significant strain. With margins being compressed by rising operational costs and declining demand, European refiners are finding it increasingly difficult to compete with newer, more efficient facilities in other parts of the world.

Regions like the United States, India, and the Middle East benefit from cheaper crude feedstock, lower energy prices, and newer infrastructure. This allows them to weather market volatility and absorb price shocks more effectively than their European counterparts. In contrast, many European refineries operate on legacy infrastructure with higher energy and compliance costs, and reduced flexibility in processing varied crude slates.

Adding to the pressure, massive new refineries have come online in the last two years in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, and West Africa. These facilities boast higher complexity, modern configurations, and large production capacities. Their scale and integration enable superior cost-efficiency and product yields compared to aging European plants.

Take Shell Pernis, for example — Europe’s largest refinery. Despite its size and history, it now faces stiff competition from newer facilities that can operate at a fraction of the cost with superior output flexibility. This changing landscape threatens to erode Europe’s historical position as a refining powerhouse.

Strategic Implications: European refiners must rethink their business models. Options include investing in modernization, pivoting toward specialty products and biofuels, or transitioning assets toward import/export and storage hubs. Collaborating with terminals and traders could open up new value streams in the logistics ecosystem.

The refining map is being redrawn. If Europe doesn’t adapt, it risks losing more than margin — it could lose its relevance in the global energy equation.

Now is the time to assess competitiveness and define a long-term strategic pathway for your refining assets.

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

Click here to schedule your demo and get access to BargeINSIGHTS for free!

Europe’s Fuel Demand Is on the Decline — What Comes Next?

Northern Europe is experiencing a steady decline in diesel demand, with reductions of 1–3% annually. While gasoline demand has remained relatively stable, it too is projected to decline as electrification and environmental regulations reshape transportation and energy use.

Several interlinked factors are contributing to this structural shift. First, the rapid electrification of vehicle fleets across the continent is a major driver. Countries in Northeast Europe are particularly aggressive in phasing out internal combustion engines in favor of electric vehicles (EVs), spurred on by generous subsidies and evolving infrastructure. Secondly, stringent EU emissions targets are making fossil fuels less viable, with penalties for exceeding carbon thresholds and incentives for cleaner alternatives.

These changes directly impact stakeholders across the liquid bulk supply chain. Terminal operators and distributors must reconsider long-term storage and blending strategies. If diesel and gasoline volumes drop steadily, the throughput models on which many tank farms were built will need to be recalibrated. At the same time, refiners must adapt their product slates to align with shifting demand profiles, and possibly integrate biofuels or e-fuels into their operations.

Moreover, these trends introduce uncertainty in fuel pricing, infrastructure investments, and asset utilization. Storage economics may shift, making some assets less viable while increasing demand for more versatile or modular infrastructure. Logistics providers and port authorities will also need to align with evolving modal mixes and regulatory frameworks.

Looking ahead, the declining demand for traditional fuels may create new opportunities in alternative energy storage and distribution. Terminals that embrace this transition early could become regional leaders in hydrogen, ammonia, or battery storage infrastructure.

This isn’t merely a fluctuation—it’s a long-term transformation. Companies that act now to future-proof their operations will be best positioned for profitability and relevance in a decarbonized Europe.

Is your organization prepared for a fuel mix dominated by low-carbon alternatives? Now is the time to assess your asset strategy and market positioning.

What’s next?

Are you ready to face your challenges head-on?

We now offer a FREE customized trial to our BargeINSIGHTS tool, an all-in-one platform for liquid bulk barge transport optimization.

With BargeINSIGHTS, you get instant insights into barge freight rates, bunker gas oil prices, water levels, vessel tracking, and barge availability—all in one place. No more time-consuming data collection; everything you need is at your fingertips.

Click here to schedule your demo and get access to BargeINSIGHTS for free!

European refining margins lagging, more closures expected?

As of April 2025, Europe’s refining industry is navigating a landscape of further diminishing margins, influenced by a combination of economic pressures, policy shifts, and global competition. This downturn is prompting significant strategic adjustments within the sector, which is already coping with various closures seen in the past months and more to come for 2025 and beyond.

Current State of European Refining Margins

In 2024, European refining margins experienced a notable decline. Northwest Europe’s ultra-low sulphur diesel margins, for instance, decreased from $42 per barrel in 2022 to $29.71 per barrel in 2023. Its cracking margins remained on low levels during 2023 and 2024 which means the region could no longer remain competitive compared to other key regions. This downward trend is also attributed to factors such as reduced local European demand due to the energy transition and electrification, increasing competition from new refineries worldwide, and elevated operating costs stemming from stricter emissions regulations. ​

Potential Consequences

The sustained pressure on margins is leading to significant restructuring. For example, ExxonMobil announced plans to downsize operations at its Port-Jerome complex in France while BP is scaling back its Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany by a third (and open for interested buyers to acquire the facility). Ineos will shut down its Grangemouth refining this spring and Shell has turned off the crude distillation units at its Rheinland Wesseling site in March, which could drop total refining capacity in the Northwest European region by 650.000 bpd. This could weaken the European competitiveness of the region and increases its reliance on imports from other regions, increasing vulnerability to and volatility of prices, product availability and importance of the supply chain.

The introduction of tariffs and changing trade policies are reshaping global oil flows. European refiners may find opportunities in markets previously dominated by U.S. exports, but also face heightened competition from new refineries in regions like West Africa (Nigeria, Angola) and Latin America (Mexico, Argentina). This is already leading to a downturn in gasoline export out of key hubs in ARA and a steady flow of (more cost-effective) jet fuel from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery to the US Gulf Coast.

European refiners are increasingly investing in renewable energy projects to align with the energy transition. However, falling profits are testing the viability of these green initiatives, with various projects facing delays or cancellations due to economic constraints. ​The latest examples include postponing SAF production by BP in its Spanish refinery and various (green) hydrogen initiatives in the region.

In conclusion, Europe’s refining sector is at a pivotal juncture, contending with declining margins and the obligation to adapt to a rapidly evolving global energy landscape.  Strategic decisions made now will be crucial in determining the future resilience and competitiveness of the industry.

Barge volumes, prices, & disruption: navigating the impact of NW Europe refinery closures

Refinery closures in North-West Europe are triggering significant shifts across the liquid bulk supply chain. With capacity reductions and structural changes taking place, market participants are facing growing uncertainty in product availability, trade flows, and barge utilization.

The outlook for European liquid bulk logistics sector in 2025

The European liquid bulk sector, consisting of tank storage, tanker vessel and barging transport logistics, is dependent on global trade and is therefore influenced by geopolitics. Looking at current developments we conclude that there is a shift from globalization to global competition. The three major economic blocks, the US, China and the EU, are increasingly competing for economic power. In this race the EU is falling behind. The reason for this lag in economic development can be attributed to high energy prices, a strategic dependence on imports of critical raw materials, a poor track record of breeding high value innovative technology companies, and complicated, slow and indecisive decision making processes in the EU Council.

The report on EU competitiveness made by Draghi pinpoints three transformations that are needed to increase competitiveness: accelerate innovation and find new growth engines, bring down high energy prices while continuing to decarbonise, and cope with instable geopolitics by reducing dependencies and increasing defence investments. For Energy Intensive Industries and the transport sectors in Europe the report formulates a number measures along this line. Generally speaking the measures aimed at combatting high energy prices, aimed at supporting the automotive sector and aimed at spurring investments in chemical business and hydrogen are positive for tank storage and liquid bulk transport companies as business in chemical industries is supported. Hopefully these measures will be a priority for the European Commission and the European Council in the months and years to come. Much is at stake: our wealth, independence and way-of-life are under threat!

Short term market fundamentals are less favourable for tank storage and tanker transport markets. Oil prices are less volatile and the market is in backwardation. Natural gas prices are about four times as high compared to US markets leading to high marginal cost levels compared to other major competing regions. Petroleum refining and steam cracking margins are also depressed. The bearish market sentiment has translated into a lot of announced closures in Europe. Refineries and chemical plants across the continent are closing operations in a push to rationalize capacity. The effect on business is negative as this means less transport volumes and thus less need for tank storage capacity and shipping capacity. Our research has already confirmed decreasing tank storage rates and freight rates compared to previous periods. 2025 is set to become a difficult year for the liquid bulk supply chains and logistical operators in Europe.

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Patrick Kulsen’s exclusive interview with Inspenet: a deep dive into Insights Global’s market expansion

We are excited to announce that Insights Global is featured in an exclusive interview with Inspenet. This interview provides an in-depth look at our strategic initiatives, market insights, and our plans for expanding our presence in the U.S. market. Learn from our experts as they discuss the future of the liquid bulk and terminal industry, and how our advanced data-driven solutions are shaping the landscape. Don’t miss this opportunity to gain valuable knowledge and stay ahead in the industry.

In this interview, Patrick, our Managing Director, delves into the evolution of our company from its European origins to becoming a global leader. He shares insights on our commitment to innovation, the challenges and opportunities in the liquid bulk sector, and our vision for the future. This candid conversation is a must-watch for anyone looking to understand the dynamics of the industry and how we are positioning ourselves to provide unparalleled value to our clients worldwide.

Watch the interview here.

The impact of changing supply and demand balances on tank terminals

Covid-19 also has effects on tank terminals: As soon as the true scope of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent, the oil market shifted from a backwardated market into a deep contango. Needless to say, this contango immediately led to a significant increase in demand for tank storage.

As the world is slowly emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, it is safe to say that the corona virus has had a profound impact on nearly every aspect of our daily lives. Besides the more visible effects on public health, society, and transportation, Covid-19 also sent a shockwave through the global economy.

This shockwave also had its effects on tank terminals: As soon as the true scope of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent, the oil market shifted from a backwardated market into a deep contango. Needless to say, this contango immediately led to a significant increase in demand for tank storage.

The road less traveled?

The demand for road and jet fuels has been affected most by the Covid-19 pandemic. While the short-term effects of national lockdowns on demand for fuels are relatively straightforward (fuel consumption is strongly linked with people’s mobility patterns), it will be the longer-term effects that are the most interesting to keep an eye on.

Large corporations like banks, IT companies, and insurers are already preparing for a ‘new normal,’ where their staff will work more from home after Covid-19 than they did before (source). As people will commute less to their offices, a decline in overall car traffic volume could be expected. Together with the ongoing electrification of road vehicles, we expect that the current surplus for gasoline will increase further.

When we take a look at diesel consumption, reversed dieselization of passenger cars will lead to a faster decline than we will see for gasoline. That being said, because the electrification of trucks is not expected to happen in the coming years, there will still be a large volume of diesel consumption left. 

For jet fuel, we forecast that the current deficit for North-Western Europe will grow at a slower pace. While it is expected air travel will largely recover, analysts forecast it will take at least towards 2023 until air travel is back at pre-pandemic levels (source).

Electric vehicles

Over the past few years, the market for electric mobility has seen incredible growth. In 2019, the global electric car fleet exceeded 7.2 million, up 2 million from the previous year. With more and more electric car models being introduced to the market and charging infrastructure improving, this strong growth is only expected to increase. The IEA estimates that by 2030, there will be over 250 million electric vehicles (excluding three/two-wheelers) on the world’s roads. According to the IEA, the projected growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario of electric vehicles would cut oil products by 4.2 million barrels/day. (source)

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered the preferred solution for short-distance and light vehicles (passenger cars, delivery vans) because of their high energy efficiency, their batteries have a limited energy density compared to traditional fuels. This means that for vehicles with high power demands, such as ocean liners, long-haul trucks, and airplanes, batteries are highly impractical. 

Alternative fuels

With an energy density that’s comparable to fossil fuels, e-fuels and green hydrogen are poised to play a crucial role in our transition to sustainable mobility. E-fuels are produced by electrolyzing water, creating hydrogen and oxygen. While hydrogen gas in itself is an excellent renewable energy carrier, it can be synthesized further with carbon dioxide or nitrogen into more stable and easier to handle e-fuels. When using electricity from renewable sources and circular carbon dioxide (such as direct capture from the air), net emissions are close to zero.

While this process’s overall energy efficiency is lower than that of chemical batteries used in BEVs, the much higher energy density of e-fuels makes them much better suited for applications with high power demands, like shipping, trucking, and aviation.

Circular economy

As the call for reducing plastic waste gets louder and louder, the concept of circular economy is gaining traction. While the market for recycled plastics is growing rapidly and will have its effect on the demand for chemicals, it is not foreseen yet that consumption of virgin material will decrease the coming years.

What’s next?

It is clear that both the covid-19 pandemic as well as the transition to sustainable fuel sources will greatly impact the tank storage terminals. The market outlook for the oil and chemical industry will see significant shifts in supply and demand, while the Covid-19 pandemic only adds further complexities to the market. That’s why market intelligence should be on the radar of every terminal operator. During our regular Market Update webinars, we offer our expert outlook on supply, demand, and trade flows and their impact on tank storage demand.

Do you want to make sure that you never miss out on important market updates? Sign up for the next webinar today, so that you are better prepared for what tomorrow will bring.

5 New Growth Markets for Tank Terminals

In this blog, we will take a close look at five alternative fuel candidates that promise to change the tank terminal landscape as we know it today.

As the world slowly but surely is going into an energy transition, new growth markets for tank terminals are emerging. As the demand for traditional fuels as diesel and gasoline will decline in the coming decades, new liquid bulk alternatives are currently being developed to take their places.

In this blog, we will take a close look at five alternative fuel candidates that promise to change the tank terminal landscape as we know it today.

The road towards sustainability

To meet the ambitious goals set out in the Paris Climate Agreement, signatory governments have pledged to drastically cut emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses and work towards a carbon-neutral economy.

In Europe, sectors like agriculture and industry have since made ample progress in cutting emissions. Yet the transport sector is lagging behind. Considering transport accounts for 23 percent of global CO2 emissions, significant efforts need to be made to reduce the environmental footprint of our trucks, boats, and airplanes. 

Thanks to advances in renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels, we can generate vast amounts of energy in a sustainable way. The biggest challenge ahead of us is storing that energy for when it’s needed and carrying the energy to where it’s needed.

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered the preferred solution for short-distance and light vehicles (passenger cars, delivery vans) because of their high energy efficiency, their batteries have a limited energy density compared to traditional fuels. This means that for vehicles with high power demands, such as ocean liners, long-haul trucks, and airplanes, batteries are highly impractical. 

Future Fuels

With an energy density that’s comparable to fossil fuels, e-fuels and green hydrogen are poised to play a crucial role in our transition to sustainable mobility. E-fuels are produced by electrolyzing water, creating hydrogen and oxygen. While hydrogen gas in itself is an excellent renewable energy carrier, it can be synthesized further with carbon dioxide or nitrogen into more stable and easier to handle e-fuels. When using electricity from renewable sources and circular carbon dioxide (such as direct capture from the air), net emissions are close to zero.

While this process’s overall energy efficiency is lower than that of chemical batteries used in BEVs, the much higher energy density of e-fuels makes them much better suited for applications with high power demands, like shipping, trucking, and aviation.

Methanol

Feedstocks for methanol are green hydrogen, CO2, and electricity. Traditionally, these kinds of synthesizing processes use fossil fuels for their CO2 source, but they can be made almost carbon neutral by capturing the CO2 from the atmosphere. 

As methanol is a liquid and does not need to be compressed or chilled for storage and transport, it’s very suitable as a fuel. The energy density of methanol is relatively low compared to E-diesel and E-kerosine. Still, from an economic point of view (cost per GJ fuel energy), methanol has a lot of potential as a fuel for shipping and trucking operations.

E-Diesel

Like Methanol, E-diesel is also produced from green hydrogen and CO2. A Fischer-Tropsch process is required for the synthesis, with an efficiency of up to 69%. Like methanol, e-diesel is easily stored and transported. No modification is needed for existing diesel vehicles, making e-diesel an excellent replacement for fossil diesel applications.

Ammonia

Synthesized ammonia (NH3) consists of green hydrogen and nitrogen extracted from the atmosphere. The synthesis of hydrogen and nitrogen takes place in a Haber-Bosch reactor and can achieve yields of up to 70%.

Production of ammonia is relatively straightforward and easily scalable, but it has to be stored and transported under either cooled or compressed conditions. This requires relatively large tanks, making ammonia only a feasible option for large ocean-going vessels.

E-Kerosine

With a similar process to E-diesel, E-kerosene is produced by combining hydrogen and CO2 through a Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. Compared to other e-fuels, synthesizing e-kerosine is quite expensive. Still, its high energy density and compatibility with existing jet engines make it the only viable e-fuel for aviation.

(Green) hydrogen

Green hydrogen (H2) is made by electrolyzing H2O (water) using green electricity. As electricity is the ‘main ingredient’ of green hydrogen, it’s an excellent energy carrier to store excess energy production from renewable sources like solar and wind. This way, hydrogen gas can act as a ‘battery’ to store electricity production during off-peak hours (let’s say, a windy and sunny Sunday afternoon). 

Because storage and transportation of hydrogen must be done either compressed or cryogenic, it is less suitable for long-haul transport applications like oceanic shipping. However, as green hydrogen is a key feedstock for other e-fuels, its importance to future supply chains for renewable fuels cannot be understated.

What’s next?

It is clear that the transition to sustainable fuel sources will greatly impact the tank storage terminals. That’s why market intelligence should be on the radar of every terminal operator. During our regular Market Update webinars, we offer our expert outlook on supply, demand, and trade flows and their impact on tank storage demand. 

Do you want to make sure that you never miss out on important market updates? Sign up for the next webinar today, so that you are better prepared for what tomorrow will bring.