Category: Gripping Thoughts

As the world is slowly emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, it is safe to say that the corona virus has had a profound impact on nearly every aspect of our daily lives. Besides the more visible effects on public health, society, and transportation, Covid-19 also sent a shockwave through the global economy.

This shockwave also had its effects on tank terminals: As soon as the true scope of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent, the oil market shifted from a backwardated market into a deep contango. Needless to say, this contango immediately led to a significant increase in demand for tank storage.

The road less traveled?

The demand for road and jet fuels has been affected most by the Covid-19 pandemic. While the short-term effects of national lockdowns on demand for fuels are relatively straightforward (fuel consumption is strongly linked with people’s mobility patterns), it will be the longer-term effects that are the most interesting to keep an eye on.

Large corporations like banks, IT companies, and insurers are already preparing for a ‘new normal,’ where their staff will work more from home after Covid-19 than they did before (source). As people will commute less to their offices, a decline in overall car traffic volume could be expected. Together with the ongoing electrification of road vehicles, we expect that the current surplus for gasoline will increase further.

When we take a look at diesel consumption, reversed dieselization of passenger cars will lead to a faster decline than we will see for gasoline. That being said, because the electrification of trucks is not expected to happen in the coming years, there will still be a large volume of diesel consumption left. 

For jet fuel, we forecast that the current deficit for North-Western Europe will grow at a slower pace. While it is expected air travel will largely recover, analysts forecast it will take at least towards 2023 until air travel is back at pre-pandemic levels (source).

Electric vehicles

Over the past few years, the market for electric mobility has seen incredible growth. In 2019, the global electric car fleet exceeded 7.2 million, up 2 million from the previous year. With more and more electric car models being introduced to the market and charging infrastructure improving, this strong growth is only expected to increase. The IEA estimates that by 2030, there will be over 250 million electric vehicles (excluding three/two-wheelers) on the world’s roads. According to the IEA, the projected growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario of electric vehicles would cut oil products by 4.2 million barrels/day. (source)

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered the preferred solution for short-distance and light vehicles (passenger cars, delivery vans) because of their high energy efficiency, their batteries have a limited energy density compared to traditional fuels. This means that for vehicles with high power demands, such as ocean liners, long-haul trucks, and airplanes, batteries are highly impractical. 

Alternative fuels

With an energy density that’s comparable to fossil fuels, e-fuels and green hydrogen are poised to play a crucial role in our transition to sustainable mobility. E-fuels are produced by electrolyzing water, creating hydrogen and oxygen. While hydrogen gas in itself is an excellent renewable energy carrier, it can be synthesized further with carbon dioxide or nitrogen into more stable and easier to handle e-fuels. When using electricity from renewable sources and circular carbon dioxide (such as direct capture from the air), net emissions are close to zero.

While this process’s overall energy efficiency is lower than that of chemical batteries used in BEVs, the much higher energy density of e-fuels makes them much better suited for applications with high power demands, like shipping, trucking, and aviation.

Circular economy

As the call for reducing plastic waste gets louder and louder, the concept of circular economy is gaining traction. While the market for recycled plastics is growing rapidly and will have its effect on the demand for chemicals, it is not foreseen yet that consumption of virgin material will decrease the coming years.

What’s next?

It is clear that both the covid-19 pandemic as well as the transition to sustainable fuel sources will greatly impact the tank storage terminals. The market outlook for the oil and chemical industry will see significant shifts in supply and demand, while the Covid-19 pandemic only adds further complexities to the market. That’s why market intelligence should be on the radar of every terminal operator. During our regular Market Update webinars, we offer our expert outlook on supply, demand, and trade flows and their impact on tank storage demand.

Do you want to make sure that you never miss out on important market updates? Sign up for the next webinar today, so that you are better prepared for what tomorrow will bring.

As the world slowly but surely is going into an energy transition, new growth markets for tank terminals are emerging. As the demand for traditional fuels as diesel and gasoline will decline in the coming decades, new liquid bulk alternatives are currently being developed to take their places.

In this blog, we will take a close look at five alternative fuel candidates that promise to change the tank terminal landscape as we know it today.

The road towards sustainability

To meet the ambitious goals set out in the Paris Climate Agreement, signatory governments have pledged to drastically cut emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses and work towards a carbon-neutral economy.

In Europe, sectors like agriculture and industry have since made ample progress in cutting emissions. Yet the transport sector is lagging behind. Considering transport accounts for 23 percent of global CO2 emissions, significant efforts need to be made to reduce the environmental footprint of our trucks, boats, and airplanes. 

Thanks to advances in renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels, we can generate vast amounts of energy in a sustainable way. The biggest challenge ahead of us is storing that energy for when it’s needed and carrying the energy to where it’s needed.

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered the preferred solution for short-distance and light vehicles (passenger cars, delivery vans) because of their high energy efficiency, their batteries have a limited energy density compared to traditional fuels. This means that for vehicles with high power demands, such as ocean liners, long-haul trucks, and airplanes, batteries are highly impractical. 

Future Fuels

With an energy density that’s comparable to fossil fuels, e-fuels and green hydrogen are poised to play a crucial role in our transition to sustainable mobility. E-fuels are produced by electrolyzing water, creating hydrogen and oxygen. While hydrogen gas in itself is an excellent renewable energy carrier, it can be synthesized further with carbon dioxide or nitrogen into more stable and easier to handle e-fuels. When using electricity from renewable sources and circular carbon dioxide (such as direct capture from the air), net emissions are close to zero.

While this process’s overall energy efficiency is lower than that of chemical batteries used in BEVs, the much higher energy density of e-fuels makes them much better suited for applications with high power demands, like shipping, trucking, and aviation.

Methanol

Feedstocks for methanol are green hydrogen, CO2, and electricity. Traditionally, these kinds of synthesizing processes use fossil fuels for their CO2 source, but they can be made almost carbon neutral by capturing the CO2 from the atmosphere. 

As methanol is a liquid and does not need to be compressed or chilled for storage and transport, it’s very suitable as a fuel. The energy density of methanol is relatively low compared to E-diesel and E-kerosine. Still, from an economic point of view (cost per GJ fuel energy), methanol has a lot of potential as a fuel for shipping and trucking operations.

E-Diesel

Like Methanol, E-diesel is also produced from green hydrogen and CO2. A Fischer-Tropsch process is required for the synthesis, with an efficiency of up to 69%. Like methanol, e-diesel is easily stored and transported. No modification is needed for existing diesel vehicles, making e-diesel an excellent replacement for fossil diesel applications.

Ammonia

Synthesized ammonia (NH3) consists of green hydrogen and nitrogen extracted from the atmosphere. The synthesis of hydrogen and nitrogen takes place in a Haber-Bosch reactor and can achieve yields of up to 70%.

Production of ammonia is relatively straightforward and easily scalable, but it has to be stored and transported under either cooled or compressed conditions. This requires relatively large tanks, making ammonia only a feasible option for large ocean-going vessels.

E-Kerosine

With a similar process to E-diesel, E-kerosene is produced by combining hydrogen and CO2 through a Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. Compared to other e-fuels, synthesizing e-kerosine is quite expensive. Still, its high energy density and compatibility with existing jet engines make it the only viable e-fuel for aviation.

(Green) hydrogen

Green hydrogen (H2) is made by electrolyzing H2O (water) using green electricity. As electricity is the ‘main ingredient’ of green hydrogen, it’s an excellent energy carrier to store excess energy production from renewable sources like solar and wind. This way, hydrogen gas can act as a ‘battery’ to store electricity production during off-peak hours (let’s say, a windy and sunny Sunday afternoon). 

Because storage and transportation of hydrogen must be done either compressed or cryogenic, it is less suitable for long-haul transport applications like oceanic shipping. However, as green hydrogen is a key feedstock for other e-fuels, its importance to future supply chains for renewable fuels cannot be understated.

What’s next?

It is clear that the transition to sustainable fuel sources will greatly impact the tank storage terminals. That’s why market intelligence should be on the radar of every terminal operator. During our regular Market Update webinars, we offer our expert outlook on supply, demand, and trade flows and their impact on tank storage demand. 

Do you want to make sure that you never miss out on important market updates? Sign up for the next webinar today, so that you are better prepared for what tomorrow will bring.

We often see investors flocking to lower-risk investments during economic uncertainty, such as government bonds, real estate, and infrastructure. Therefore, it’s hardly surprising that we are seeing a significant uptick in interest for tank terminals investments.

Is investing in a tank terminal also something you should consider? While in most cases the answer will be a sounding ‘yes,’ it will pay dividends to first learn more about the exciting world of tank terminals. Let’s take a look at the top 5 reasons why you should invest in a tank terminal.

1. Tank terminals have typically always been a very profitable industry, with high return of investments and a low-risk profile

When we take a look at the profitability of tank storage companies over the past decades, they show in general very positive numbers. For example, Vopak, the worldwide market leader in tank terminals, has consistently demonstrated high EBITDA and EBIT percentages over the last 15 years; an excellent track record that most companies from other sectors can only dream of.

2. Tank terminals benefit from gross trade and product imbalances

As our national economies become more intertwined, gross trade keeps growing consistently. For some sectors, this increased gross trade and consequent product imbalances cause challenges. Because tank terminals are key in facilitating gross trade and correcting product imbalances, an increase in gross trade actually presents new business opportunities.

3. By using tank terminals as ‘forward stocking’ locations, products owners can save a considerable amount of supply chains costs

Tank terminals are not just about storage; smart product owners know that they can also leverage them as forward stocking locations.

Let’s say there is a South African refinery that has contracts in place with 20 European customers, selling them 10 tons of product per year each. The refinery could choose to ship 20 times 10t of product from South Africa to its individual customers in Europe. However, a smart product owner will ship the 200t of products to Europe in a single load, rent a tank in the region, and distribute the product when the customers need it. The cost advantage of the second option is huge; keep in mind that vessel costs are much higher than storage costs.

As pressure on supply chains to become more efficient is constantly rising, this forward stocking function of terminals will only become more important in the future.

4. As GDP is expected to keep on growing, it is also likely that gross trade keeps on growing

Historically speaking, there has always been a strong correlation between GDP and gross trade. If we take chemicals as an example, we have seen that historical chemical consumption growth percentages routinely exceed the GDP growth percentages. The main reason is that chemicals are heavily integrated into our daily lives and that chemicals have replaced other materials like wood, steel, paper, and glass.

5. Tank terminals are part of the supply chain of different value chains, like oil, gas, chemicals, and vegetable oils.

The location of a terminal is a very critical factor in determining the attractiveness of a terminal; if a terminal is located close to the sea is on average more attractive compared to more inland located terminals, as it saves time from marine vessels’ perspective and larger vessels can access the terminal.

What’s next?

These top 5 reasons are just the start. To become a successful investor in the tank terminal industry, there is still much more to learn.