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The Rhine barge market entered December with flat freight rates, low spot activity, and a general lack of urgency on both the charterer and operator sides. Despite fluctuating water levels, intakes remained high enough across the river system to avoid any logistical pressure. Trading sentiment remained shaped by year-end trading decisions, backwardation in the ICE gasoil contract, and abundant barge availability.

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1. Freight Rates: A Fully Flat Week With One Micro-Adjustment

1 December had slight mixed adjustments

• Basel rose marginally (+€0.53), while Karlsruhe slipped slightly (–€0.25).
  
• All other routes remained unchanged.

• A total of nine deals were concluded as the week opened with stronger activity than the week before.

2 December’s minor, offsetting rate changes

• Cologne fell (–€0.25), Karlsruhe rose (+€0.25).
  
• Other routes held steady.

• Twelve deals were reported, but operators noted fewer requests overall and suggested shifting tonnage toward ARA if weak demand persisted.

3 December has fully unchanged rates

• All routes held flat.
  
• Six deals, but operators highlighted that some barges were fully booked while others remained available—an uneven supply pattern typical for early December.

4 December remains the same

• Only two deals, as both charterers and operators had already secured their week’s needs.
  
• Water levels were falling at Kaub but rising at Maxau; intakes remained unaffected.

5 December had fully unchanged except Basel (–€0.05)

• No deals reported, marking an extremely quiet end to the week.

• Operators reported being covered through mid-next week; charterers relied on COA voyages for remaining requirements.
  

Takeaway: Aside from tiny, isolated adjustments, Rhine freight rates remained flat for the entire week, reflecting minimal spot activity and balanced but unmotivated market conditions.

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2. Water Levels: High, Navigable, and Not Influencing Rates

Across the week, water levels at Kaub and Maxau provided ample depth for full 110m barge intakes:

• 1 December: Maxau forecast to fall from 526 cm to ~490 cm, Kaub from 236 cm to ~218 cm—still sufficient for 2,000–2,300-ton intakes.
  
• 5 December: Maxau 495 → 575 cm, Kaub 210 → 192 cm; still no meaningful intake restrictions.

Takeaway: Hydrology played no supportive role where water remained high, stable, and non-restrictive.

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3. Market Activity: Moderate Start, Then a Slide Into Silence

Spot activity eased steadily throughout the week:

• 1 December: 9 deals, the most active day of the period.
  
• 2 December: 12 deals with strong pacing, though operators noted lower enquiry levels than in previous weeks.

• 3 December: 6 deals as spot interest begins to cool.

• 4 December: 2 deals as the market slows sharply and both sides declare schedules covered.

• 5 December: 0 deals, marking a completely inactive session.

Takeaway: The Rhine market moved from mildly active to nearly frozen, typical for early December when traders avoid prompt imports.

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4. Market Drivers: Year-End Caution and Backwardation Dominate

• Gasoil backwardation remains a brake. Backwardation widened slightly on 5 December, discouraging charterers from buying ahead.

• Uneven but sufficient barge availability. Some barges were fully booked on 3 December, while others were idle around 1–2 December, but overall supply exceeded demand.

• Low urgency from charterers. Charterers repeatedly stated they had already fixed sufficient barges by 4 December, limiting spot business.

• End-year budget behavior. Traders avoided new December imports, preferring to shift cargoes into January for inventory reasons.

Takeaway: Market fundamentals offered no catalyst for freight uplift.

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Conclusion

The Rhine barge freight market during 1–5 December was characterized by exceptionally low activity, uniformly flat freight rates, and no meaningful shifts in supply–demand balance. High water levels ensured full loading conditions throughout the corridor, but this operational advantage was offset by weak charterer interest and persistent backwardation in gasoil, which discouraged early-month purchasing. After a mildly active start to the week, spot trading collapsed entirely by Friday, leaving most operators covered through mid-next week and several barges sitting idle. With no clear driver for renewed demand, the Rhine market ended the week stalled in a soft, directionless equilibrium.

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