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Rhine Freight Market: Low Demand and Falling Water Levels Keep Market in Check

Late September and early October brought a combination of weak spot demand, declining water levels, and unchanged freight rates across the Rhine corridor. While logistical challenges such as strikes and hydrological changes briefly captured attention, neither was sufficient to lift trading momentum or pricing.

1. Freight Rates: Static Despite Varied Influences

Freight rates across all Rhine destinations remained largely stable through the period:

  • 25–26 September: Rates fell slightly across most routes, with Basel losing about €1/ton, reflecting soft market sentiment amid low demand and healthy barge availability.
  • 29–30 September: Despite a worsening hydrological outlook, rates stayed flat, as traders noted no urgency to move product. Spot market activity was limited to a few small fixtures.

Takeaway: The Rhine freight market remained effectively frozen in price terms, with little evidence of upward pressure despite tightening drafts.

2. Water Levels: Decreasing, Yet Still Manageable

Hydrological conditions continued to deteriorate but remained workable:

  • Maxau dropped from 572 cm on 26 September to around 507 cm by 1 October, with forecasts suggesting further declines toward 480–490 cm by 5–6 October and possibly 450 cm by mid-month.
  • Kaub slipped below the 230 cm mark by 1 October, and forecasts pointed toward 175–180 cm shortly thereafter.
  • While these lower drafts reduced intakes on some Upper Rhine routes, they were not yet severe enough to trigger price volatility.

Takeaway: Water levels declined steadily, but efficient load management kept freight rates steady for now.

3. Market Activity: Minimal Spot Demand

Trading volumes remained weak throughout the week:

  • 25–26 September: Only two to three deals were registered per day, reflecting a lack of fresh demand.
  • 29–30 September: Activity stayed subdued, with operators focused on contractual obligations rather than spot fixtures.
  • 1 October: Just one deal was reported, underlining the market’s inertia.

Operators indicated that they were seeking opportunities in the ARA region to compensate for thin Rhine business.

Takeaway: The spot market remains directionless and dominated by short-term, low-volume logistics.

4. External Factors: Strikes, Backwardation, and Quality Shifts

  • Strikes at locks along the Grand Canal d’Alsace (Mackolsheim, Rhinau, Gerstheim, Strasbourg) caused minor delays but no major disruptions to Rhine flows.
  • Persistent backwardation in gasoil continued to suppress speculative stocking and long-haul shipments.
  • Seasonal transitions toward winter-grade products sparked some early planning discussions for October loadings but did not yet translate into tangible demand.

Takeaway: Structural and operational factors continue to suppress volatility, even as autumn supply shifts begin.

5. Outlook: Watching the River, Waiting for Demand

Looking ahead:

  • With forecasts showing Rhine levels continuing to drop through early October, logistical flexibility may start to narrow—particularly for Upper Rhine destinations like Basel and Strasbourg.
  • However, unless product demand or pricing structures change, rate movements are expected to remain flat, with only minor fluctuations around current levels.

Takeaway: The Rhine market is balanced on a knife-edge—tightening hydrology versus slack demand.

Conclusion: Stagnant Freight Amid Shifting Conditions

From 25 September to 2 October, the Rhine barge freight market remained operationally sound but commercially stagnant. Lower river levels, sporadic strikes, and ongoing backwardation failed to generate activity. Freight rates held steady at multi-week lows, with Basel showing the only minimal upward move. Heading into October, the market’s stability feels fragile—dependent on whether hydrological tightening finally outweighs fundamental weakness.

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