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The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market saw a mixed and often contradictory week between 24 and 28 November. While midweek trading surged to one of the highest daily volumes since August, freight rate sentiment nevertheless softened, especially for light ends. Middle distillates briefly gained support midweek but ultimately trended sideways to lower by Friday.

Operational conditions were dominated by persistent terminal delays, intermittent strike disruptions in Belgium, and uneven demand between distillates and light ends, all contributing to a market that was active in pockets yet directionally weak overall.

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1. Freight Rates: Firm Start, Softer Middle, Flat Finish

• Freight rates rose modestly, especially for middle distillates, with ARA Cross Harbor up roughly €0.28, and strong deals on routes such as Flushing–Antwerp and Antwerp–Amsterdam. Light ends remained flat due to very few concluded deals.

• Rates fell sharply across middle distillates (–€0.08 to –€0.23) and light ends (–€0.03 to –€0.08). Operators noted only minimal impact from the Antwerp strike on inland vessels, and demand was described as “not particularly strong,” especially for light ends.

• Distillate rates rebounded on most ARA and Ghent routes (+€0.07 to +€0.09), while light-end rates remained unchanged. Some operators reported waiting times depending on sea-going vessel queues, especially prior to Albert Canal reopening.

• Despite one of the busiest days since August, both distillate and light-end freight rates posted a clear downtick, reflecting sufficient barge availability throughout the region. Operators highlighted plentiful vessels and limited rate support despite heavy trading.

• A very quiet session with minimal deals, keeping freight rates unchanged across all routes. Only Botlek and Antwerp showed ongoing operational delays; otherwise, no new congestion issues surfaced.

Takeaway: A week marked by up and down flat price patterns ultimately ended with rates lower than where they started, driven by light-end weakness and broad liquidity on the supply side.

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2. Spot Volumes: Highly Uneven, With a Big Midweek Spike

• 24 November: Weakest session of the month with 34.3 ktons, impacted by FAME loading delays in Antwerp and staff strikes slowing operations.

• 25 November: Activity recovered to 63.1 ktons, supported by interest for early next-week flows.

• 26 November: A strong day with 72 ktons, helped by improved clarity around delays and canal reopening.

• 27 November: A major spike to 118 ktons, one of the highest trading days since August, driven by new-month preparations and strong consumer-side demand.

• 28 November: Activity collapsed to 26.5 ktons, one of the quietest days in months, as charterers retreated ahead of the weekend.

Takeaway: The market’s volume displayed a weak start, strong middle, and abrupt drop at the end, highlighting the instability of underlying demand.

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3. Product Trends: Distillates Steady but Light Ends Remain Under Pressure

Middle Distillates

• Supported by occasional bursts of demand (notably 24, 26, and 27 November).

• Rate recovery midweek failed to hold through week’s end.

• Delays in FAME loading/discharging continued to distort capacity planning early in the week.

Light Ends

• Clear, consistent rate pressure all week, highlighted by minimal deal activity on 24–26 November.

• There were operators repeatedly reporting “calm” conditions and sufficient supply.

• Further price declines on 25 and 27 November and more empty LE barges in the system.

• Short-term upticks were absent, even on high-volume days like 27 November.

Takeaway: Distillates showed resilience, light ends reflected structural oversupply and muted blending demand.

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4. Operational Factors: Delays Ease Slowly, Strikes Add Noise

Operational friction remained central but did not escalate:

• Antwerp strike: Limited impact on inland barges but caused some waiting times for vessels mixed with sea-going vessel queues (25–26 November). There was a minimal disruption by 27 November.

• Terminal delays: Early-week bottlenecks for FAME (Antwerp, CTB, Vesta Flushing) gradually improved by 26–27 November.

• Albert Canal closure: Caused temporary rerouting challenges on 26 November before reopening at 18:00.

Takeaway: Although operational issues remained, none were severe enough to meaningfully tighten the market.

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5. Market Outlook: Slight Downward Bias into Early December

• Light ends expected to remain soft, with oversupply and weak blending demand continuing.

• Distillates likely to remain stable to slightly weaker, as midweek strength appears to have been volume-driven rather than structural.

• Adequate barge availability and improving terminal fluidity point toward a flat-to-soft market for early December.

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Conclusion

The ARA barge market during 24–28 November was defined by high volatility in activity but an overall softening in freight sentiment. Despite a midweek surge in trading, reaching the highest volumes since summer, the increase in demand did not translate into rate support, as the region continued to experience ample barge availability and weak fundamentals, particularly for light ends. Operational disruptions such as strikes and terminal delays created daily noise but did not materially affect market balance. By Friday, freight levels across both distillates and light ends had settled into a stable but slightly lower range, leaving the market heading into December with more supply than demand and limited upward catalysts.

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